Jiang Fuwei: Effectively Conducting the Evaluation of Macro Policy Orientation Consistency
Perfecting the macroeconomic governance system and solidly promoting high-quality development requires the coordinated cooperation and precise application of a "combined punch" [1] of policies across all sectors. The Central Economic Work Conference convened at the end of 2023 emphasized "incorporating both economic and non-economic policies into the consistency evaluation of macro-policy orientations," highlighting the importance of delivering an effective policy "combined punch" and enhancing the overall efficacy of policy.
Conducting effective consistency evaluations of macro-policy orientations is the prerequisite for strengthening the consistency of macro-policy orientations. In a severe and complex domestic and international development environment, it is an inevitable move to adhere to systems thinking when formulating economic and non-economic policies and to play the whole country as a single chessboard [2].
Economic and non-economic policies together influence national development and social stability; their consistency is of great significance for elevating the modernization of national governance. Non-economic policies—such as those regarding environmental protection and education—despite appearing to have a weak correlation with economic policy, actually possess profound influence over resource allocation, market expectations, and social well-being. For example, while environmental protection policies limit the excessive expansion of high-energy-consumption and high-emission industries, they also drive the development of the green economy and industrial structural transformation, catalyzing new energy industries and providing new momentum for high-quality development. Similarly, education policy can enhance national innovation capacity and global competitiveness by upgrading human capital. These non-economic policies can indirectly drive economic development by influencing the quality of the labor force, market vitality, and industrial structure. Therefore, incorporating both economic and non-economic policies into the consistency evaluation of macro-policy orientations can achieve optimized resource allocation and complementary policy goals, avoiding the "compositional fallacy" [3] caused by mutual cancellation or conflict between policy objectives, thereby ensuring coordinated economic and social development.
Specifically, integrating economic and non-economic policies into a unified consistency evaluation and coordinating the entire process of policy formulation and implementation can provide an important reference for the creation and adjustment of macro-policies. This ensures that while macro-policies consider short-term and local benefits, they also give greater weight to long-term and holistic development goals. It helps optimize policy implementation paths, simplify processes, and improve implementation efficiency, ensuring the integrity, continuity, and stability of policies to create a sustainable development environment. Meanwhile, consistency evaluations will enhance policy transparency and public trust, thereby strengthening confidence in the policy environment. This not only helps stabilize market expectations but also helps stimulate corporate enthusiasm for investment and innovation. On the basis of perfecting evaluation mechanisms, further strengthening inter-departmental collaboration and improving feedback mechanisms will provide a solid guarantee for enhancing policy synergy and elevating the modernization of macroeconomic governance. To this end, multiple measures should be taken simultaneously to effectively conduct consistency evaluations of macro-policy orientations.
Establish an inter-departmental policy coordination mechanism. The formulation of economic and non-economic policies involves multiple decision-making departments. Establishing an effective inter-departmental policy coordination mechanism can promote the sharing and exchange of policy information, break down departmental information barriers, and improve the efficiency and quality of consistency evaluations. Each department should clarify its own roles and scope of responsibility in the policy formulation and implementation process, identifying which policy contents are its core functional duties and which parts require collaborative completion with other departments. By constructing normalized information communication platforms and holding regular joint meetings, departments can exchange views on matters related to policy formulation and implementation, timely sharing policy information and monitoring data. Evaluation results should be fed back to relevant departments promptly; all departments must attach great importance to these results and jointly study and resolve inconsistencies exposed during the process.
Advance the "digital-intelligent" construction of the evaluation system. Incorporating non-economic policies into consistency evaluations increases the complexity of the assessment. Consequently, data barriers between economic and non-economic policies should be broken down. By building inter-departmental data-sharing platforms, data standardization and interconnectivity can be achieved. Simultaneously, big data analysis and artificial intelligence should be introduced to establish dynamic monitoring and prediction models, tracking policy implementation effects in real-time, evaluating the potential impact of policy combinations, and identifying possible conflicts for timely correction. Machine learning and other technologies can be utilized to screen key information from massive datasets, predict policy effects, and reduce the risk of target deviation caused by the "compositional fallacy." Furthermore, simulation and decision-support systems based on "digital twin" technology should be developed to analyze the holistic and local impacts of different policy schemes through virtual simulation, providing a scientific basis for optimizing policy design. Improving the scientific nature and dynamic adjustment capabilities of evaluations through digital-intelligent means can effectively promote synergy between economic and non-economic policies and drive high-quality development.
Strengthen information disclosure of the evaluation process. Openness and transparency in the consistency evaluation of macro-policy orientations are essential foundations for enhancing policy stability, guiding market expectations, and strengthening social supervision. Non-economic policies may impact economic operations by influencing corporate development confidence and the business environment. Strengthening information disclosure helps create a stable, transparent, and predictable policy environment, boosting public expectations and confidence in economic development. During policy formulation, evaluation standards should be clearly defined to ensure that economic and non-economic policies are formulated according to unified objectives, achieving consistency from the source. During implementation, evaluation results should be disclosed in a timely manner, with increased efforts to interpret these results. Policy measures should be adjusted and optimized promptly, while positive publicity and public opinion guidance should be continuously strengthened to build consensus for the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy.
(The author is the Director of the Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University) Source: Economic Daily (January 7, 2024) Web Editor: Huihui