Xu Xiaoming: Deciphering the Buzzwords of Chinese Economic Development
In 2024, facing a complex and severe situation characterized by increasing external pressure and rising internal difficulties, China's economic performance has remained generally stable, achieving progress within stability. New quality productive forces have developed steadily, while capacity for scientific and technological innovation has been significantly enhanced. High-tech industries and the green, low-carbon transition have achieved remarkable results; the level of opening up to the outside world has steadily risen, the trade structure has continued to optimize, international cooperation has continuously expanded, and high-quality development has been solidly advanced. Meanwhile, the defusing of risks in key areas has been orderly and effective, with the real estate market gradually bottoming out and stabilizing, and local government debt risks being brought under control. Furthermore, China issued ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [1] and implemented a package of incremental policies to expand domestic demand comprehensively and innovate diversified consumption scenarios. The stimulation of consumption has become a new highlight, promoting a sustained economic recovery. China’s economy has developed through wind and rain and grown stronger through trials, demonstrating powerful resilience and potential. It remains a major engine of global economic growth, continuing to provide significant momentum for the world economy.
New Quality Productive Forces New quality productive forces represent an advanced state of productive forces in which innovation plays the leading role. They break away from traditional economic growth modes and development paths for productive forces, featuring high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, aligning with the New Development Philosophy [2]. These forces are catalyzed by revolutionary technological breakthroughs, the innovative allocation of factors of production, and deep industrial transformation and upgrading. Their basic connotation is the leap in the quality of laborers, means of labor, and subjects of labor, as well as their optimized combination. Their core hallmark is a substantial increase in total factor productivity. Their characteristic is innovation, their key is high quality, and their essence is advanced productivity. New quality productive forces emphasize scientific and technological innovation as the core, driving the research, development, and application of new technologies to achieve a comprehensive enhancement in production methods, efficiency, and product quality. Their "newness" is reflected not only in new production modes, tools, and organizational forms but also in the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the rapid development of emerging industries. They represent a new stage in the development of productive forces, reflecting a shift in economic development toward greater intelligence, greening, and high-end positioning, and play a crucial role in promoting economic growth, industrial upgrading, and sustainable development. Developing new quality productive forces is an intrinsic requirement and a key focus for promoting high-quality development.
Patience Capital Patience capital is a form of long-term investment capital that emphasizes a long-term outlook on capital returns and possesses a high tolerance for risk. Its primary goal is not the pursuit of short-term gains; instead, it focuses on projects or investment activities with long-term returns and is generally undisturbed by short-term market fluctuations. From global practice, patience capital primarily originates from government investment funds, pension funds, and insurance capital. By holding high-quality investment targets long-term and maintaining continuous tracking and evaluation, it achieves returns exceeding market averages. It is a key factor in ensuring scientific, technological, and industrial innovation, and constitutes an important condition and driving force for developing new quality productive forces. With its unique investment philosophy and long-term, stable capital input, patience capital not only provides a solid foundation for the cultivation and development of emerging industries but also promotes the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, accelerating the optimization and adjustment of the economic structure. In future financial markets, patience capital will continue to play an irreplaceable role, guiding the flow of capital toward more efficient and sustainable directions, and pushing high-quality economic and social development to a new level.
Future Industries Future industries are emerging industries driven by frontier technologies that are currently in the incubation or early stages of industrialization. These industries possess significant strategic, leading, subversive, and uncertain characteristics; they represent the direction of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, acting as the most active forces for economic growth. Future industries encompass multiple fields, such as future manufacturing, future information, future materials, future energy, future space, and future health, aiming to enhance social productive forces through technological innovation and industrial upgrading. The development of future industries is deeply rooted in the advancement and breakthroughs of frontier science and technology, demonstrating great potential to reshape future economic development. However, because the technology is still in the exploratory stage, there is significant uncertainty, requiring sustained and high-intensity investment. Furthermore, the development of future industries depends not only on major breakthroughs within their own fields but also on technological progress and breakthroughs in related fields; they are the result of the cross-disciplinary integration of multiple technologies and subjects. Therefore, the development of future industries requires cooperation and investment from various parties—including government, enterprises, universities, and research institutions—to jointly promote scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, thereby cultivating new points of economic growth.
A Package of Incremental Policies A package of incremental policies refers to a series of comprehensive and systematic policies introduced to address new situations and problems in various areas of current economic performance. These policies aim to promote upward economic movement, structural optimization, and a sustained improvement in the development trend, possessing strong targeting, logic, and systematicity. Specifically, the package of incremental policies covers multiple fields including finance, currency, employment, industry, regional development, investment, and consumption. It includes intensifying the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, further expanding domestic demand, increasing support for enterprises, promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, and striving to invigorate the capital market. These policies focus not only on steady economic growth in the short term but also on accelerating the construction of a unified market system [3] through reform, improving the business environment, and stimulating the endogenous momentum of economic and social development to achieve long-term, high-quality development. Additionally, the package of incremental policies emphasizes policy consistency and coordination, ensuring that policy goals, tools, intensity, timing, and rhythm across various fields are harmonized to form a combined policy force. In short, the package of incremental policies is a comprehensive and integrated policy system, constituting a major measure we have taken to respond to various challenges in current economic operations and to promote high-quality development.
Silver Economy The silver economy refers to an economic system where retirees are the primary consumer group, encompassing a series of economic activities that provide products or services to the elderly and prepare for the stage of aging. The silver economy system covers a wide range, possesses a long industrial chain, and features diverse business forms, including elderly products, smart health and elderly care, rehabilitation aids, anti-aging industries, silver finance, health-care tourism, and age-friendly modifications. As global population aging intensifies, the silver economy has become one of the important trends in contemporary social development, bringing enormous development opportunities to related industries while posing new requirements for government policy formulation. The characteristics of the silver economy are mainly reflected in a large and rapidly growing consumer group, diversified and personalized consumer demands, increasing demand for high-quality and high-value products and services, and innovative services driven by technological progress. In the future, the growth of the silver economy is expected to benefit from technological advancement, innovation in service models, and cross-industry integration, showing broad development prospects in elderly care services, medical health, smart technology, tourism and leisure, and financial products. The government, enterprises, and all sectors of society should work together to promote the sustainable development of the silver economy to meet the multi-level and diverse needs of the elderly, enhance their well-being, and build an elderly-friendly society.
First-Launch Economy The first-launch economy is a collective term for a series of economic activities in which enterprises release new products for the first time, introduce new business forms, models, services, and technologies, or open "first stores." It covers the entire chain of development from the initial release and exhibition of products or services to the opening of physical stores, the establishment of R&D centers, and finally the setting up of corporate headquarters. The first-launch economy features characteristics such as fashion, quality, and trendiness; it is an important manifestation of consumption upgrade trends and high-quality development requirements, capable of rapidly attracting target consumers and leading consumption trends. Developing the first-launch economy is of great significance for stimulating consumption potential, expanding consumer demand, and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading. Through supply-side structural reform, the first-launch economy can provide consumers with richer, more diverse, high-quality, and intelligent consumption choices, satisfying their pursuit of novelty and high-quality life. Meanwhile, the first-launch economy also helps form an industrial ecosystem around new products, forms, and models, enhancing the competitiveness of industrial clusters. The government and all sectors of society actively support the development of the first-launch economy and have introduced a series of preferential policies. As consumer demand becomes increasingly personalized and diversified, the first-launch economy will face even broader development prospects.
Low-Altitude Economy The low-altitude economy is a comprehensive economic form that relies on low-altitude airspace and is driven by the low-altitude flight activities of manned and unmanned aircraft, radiating to and promoting the integrated development of related fields. This economic form is widely manifested across the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, featuring long industrial chains, complex application scenarios, and diverse users. As a major participant in the development of the low-altitude economy, China's industry scale has grown rapidly in recent years. New types of aircraft such as drones and eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft) have been widely applied in fields like agriculture, low-altitude tourism, logistics delivery, and emergency rescue, driving the development and improvement of related industrial chains. The low-altitude economy has significant strategic importance, capable of promoting high-quality economic development and becoming a new engine for growth; it promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, enhances international competitiveness, expands new market spaces, and cultivates new kinetic energy. However, the development of the low-altitude economy also faces many challenges, such as an incomplete airspace management system, weak infrastructure, and a low degree of technical standardization. Promoting the healthy development of the low-altitude economy requires efforts in various aspects, including improving the policy system, strengthening infrastructure construction, promoting technological R&D, and enhancing safety supervision. With continuous technological progress and the gradual relaxation of policies, the low-altitude economy is expected to usher in a broader development space and a more robust development trend.
[The author is a researcher at the Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era at the Central Party School (National Academy of Governance) and Deputy Director of the Center’s Research Office in the Scientific Research Department]
Source: China Discipline Inspection and Supervision Daily Web Editor: Huihui