Zhang Qizai: Coordinating the Relationship Between Cultivating New Momentum and Renewing Traditional Momentum [1]
At present, our country is in a critical period of economic transformation and upgrading. Properly handling the relationship between new and old drivers of growth is of great significance for achieving an effective improvement in economic quality and reasonable growth in quantity. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that we must coordinate the relationship between cultivating new drivers and updating old drivers, and develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions. This reflects the continuous deepening of our Party’s understanding of the patterns of economic work, which helps promote a stable upward trend in the economy, continuous optimization of the structure, and the sustained improvement of development momentum.
Scientifically Grasping the Connotations of New and Old Drivers
To coordinate the relationship between cultivating new drivers and updating old drivers, we first need to grasp the connotations of each. In the stage of high-quality development, cultivating new drivers means leveraging the role of innovation-driven development, developing strategic emerging industries, and taking forward-looking steps to layout future industries. Updating old drivers focuses on promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries through innovation.
New drivers consist of advanced productive forces dominated by innovation that have broken away from traditional development models, and the relations of production that correspond to these advanced productive forces. Compared with old drivers, the core hallmark of new drivers is being innovation-driven. For a period in the past, China’s economic development was primarily driven by increasing the quantity of capital and labor inputs, which came at a high cost to resources and the environment. As the environment for China’s economic development has changed and levels have risen, the overall imbalance between supply and demand has shifted from supply shortages to insufficient demand. The momentum for development driven by the expansion of factor input volume is weakening; economic development needs to shift from being factor-driven to innovation-driven. High-quality development is development that embodies the New Development Philosophy [1]. Persisting in innovation-driven development and promoting the transition of growth drivers are important tasks for high-quality development, as well as the foundation for promoting long-term, sustained, and stable growth in China’s economy.
The key to cultivating new drivers lies in vigorously developing strategic emerging industries, making forward-looking layouts for future industries, and constantly opening up new fields and new arenas. By investing in new industries, new business forms, new models, and new types of infrastructure, we can promote the integrated and clustered development of strategic emerging industries. This will create a batch of new growth engines such as next-generation information technology, artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection. In recent years, China has taken a series of measures to support the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries, achieving significant results. We implemented the insurance compensation policy for the first (set of) major technical equipment [2], with the central government providing subsidies for 80% of the premiums for insured enterprises, supporting the market application of more than 30,000 units (sets) of major technical equipment. We have deeply implemented the national strategic emerging industry cluster development project, the "East Data, West Computing" [3] project, and industrial innovation projects. The development of strategic emerging industries is moving from individual breakthroughs toward the enhancement of systemic capabilities. We have vigorously supported the construction of new application scenarios in fields such as AI, biomanufacturing, future energy, and quantum technology, and the international competitiveness of our future industries is steadily rising.
The key to updating old drivers lies in promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Traditional industries, particularly traditional manufacturing, are important carriers for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, important channels for absorbing employment, important sources of tax revenue, and important areas for conducting international trade. They occupy a vital position in the national economy. The added value of traditional manufacturing—such as petrochemicals, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, light industry, and textiles—still accounts for a large proportion of total manufacturing. They are the important foundation for supporting national economic development and meeting the people’s needs for daily life. However, the problems of traditional manufacturing being "large but not strong" and "comprehensive but not refined" remain prominent. Surplus in low-end supply coexists with insufficient high-end supply, innovation capacity is weak, the industrial foundation is not solid, resource constraints are tightening, and factor costs are rising. Consolidating and enhancing competitive advantages faces significant challenges. Promoting the transition from old to new drivers does not mean simply eliminating traditional industries. Rather, it means using equipment renewals and technical transformations, increasing support for technological breakthroughs in "chokepoint" [4] areas, improving quality and efficiency, enhancing the adaptability of supply to demand, and driving traditional industries to achieve transformation and upgrading. Practice has proven that promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries still offers great potential. The steel industry is a typical traditional sector. In recent years, many steel companies have continuously improved their economic and environmental benefits through digital transformation and intelligent upgrades. For example, the Qian'an Iron and Steel Company of Shougang Group launched a vertical large model system for full-process visualization of molten iron transport and molten iron temperature drop. This resulted in a 42% reduction in temperature drop and a 125% increase in the turnover rate of torpedo cars, reducing costs by more than 70 million yuan annually.
Theoretically speaking, there are several ways to transition between new and old drivers. One is to continuously grow new drivers while maintaining old ones; another is to completely abandon old drivers and replace them entirely with new ones; and a third is to cultivate new drivers on the one hand while updating old drivers on the other. In the first two methods, the new and old drivers are not integrated. This not only affects the efficiency of resource allocation and the speed of transition but also easily causes significant economic fluctuations or even creates a "momentum vacuum." The third method better coordinates the relationship between cultivating new drivers and updating old drivers, facilitating the steady and sustained progress of the economy. However, it requires certain conditions—namely, a relatively complete industrial system with diverse types and rich layers of industry. Against the backdrop of international competition, China’s industries include "follower" and "catch-up" types, as well as "running-alongside," "leading," and "lane-changing/overtaking" [5] types. Different types of industries have different growth drivers. "Running-alongside," "leading," and "lane-changing" types focus on cultivating new drivers; "follower" and "catch-up" types focus on updating old drivers. Different types of industries adapt to different needs, involve different stakeholders, and have different regional distribution patterns. By coordinating the relationship between cultivating new drivers and updating old drivers, we can shape new advantages for economic development through "dual-engine" driving.
Focusing on Main Directions and Key Tasks
The smooth and continuous transition between new and old drivers is a process. We must accurately explore the main directions and key tasks for cultivating new drivers and updating old drivers, allowing traditional industries to constantly radiate new vitality and ensuring that emerging and future industries continuously inject new drivers and advantages into economic development.
First, firmly grasp the "ox nose" [6] of innovation. Whether cultivating new drivers or updating old drivers, innovation-driven development is required. Currently, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is developing deeply. The global paradigm for scientific and technological innovation is undergoing profound changes, and AI is becoming a key force driving innovation. We must fully leverage the role of AI in driving scientific, technological, and industrial innovation, promoting both the cultivation of new drivers and the updating of old ones. We should increase investment in basic research and use technological innovation to lead industrial innovation, providing continuous scientific support for both new and old drivers. We must fully leverage the institutional advantage of "concentrating resources to accomplish major undertakings," optimize the layout of national-level sci-tech innovation platforms in manufacturing (such as National Manufacturing Innovation Centers and Industrial Innovation Centers), and encourage research on key common technologies and industrial application demonstrations in key fields. This will drive major technological breakthroughs and achieve rapid application of key technologies. We should encourage enterprises to act as the primary subjects, building R&D institutions in collaboration with universities and research institutes. These should focus on weak areas such as basic components, basic electronic parts, basic materials, basic software, basic processes, and industrial technology foundations, accelerating breakthroughs and promoting the deep integration of scientific and industrial innovation. We must fully leverage the role of "scenario-driven innovation," enhancing the capacity for scenario innovation to drive the development of strategic emerging and future industries. Based on the types and stages of innovation activities, we should optimize government functions, release market potential, improve relevant mechanisms, and make good use of policy tools.
Second, improve the market-based mechanisms for the transition between new and old drivers. Build an investment and financing system that corresponds to a high-level socialist market economy. In the transition between new and old drivers, we should leverage the empowering, leveraging, and guiding roles of government investment on social investment. We should guide financial institutions to increase credit support for developing new drivers and upgrading old ones, providing sufficient financial guarantees. We must accelerate the optimized layout, structural adjustment, and strategic restructuring of the state-owned economy, pushing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to take the lead in eliminating inefficient and backward production capacity and leveraging the leading role of state capital in coordinating the cultivation of new drivers and the updating of old ones. We should improve policies that support the reform and development of private enterprises, protect the property rights of private enterprises and the rights of entrepreneurs according to the law, encourage private enterprises to speed up transformation and upgrading, and support them in exploring new fields, technologies, and markets. We must break down institutional barriers that restrict the free flow of factors such as labor, technology, and data, resolutely abolish policies and measures that hinder a unified market and fair competition, accelerate the construction of a national unified large market, and enhance the endogenous power of the transition between new and old drivers.
Third, fully leverage the empowering role of new types of factors. We should increase efforts to cultivate and develop new forms of factors, training new types of laborers, creating new types of instruments of labor, and expanding new objects of labor. We must promote the organic integration of new factors with traditional factors, leveraging the empowering role of data factors and AI technology over other factors of production. We should vigorously promote the "intelligent transformation, digital turning, and network linking" of enterprises, supporting the digital transformation of production equipment and accelerating the deep integration of information technologies—such as AI, big data, cloud computing, 5G, and the Internet of Things (IoT)—with all processes and factors of manufacturing. We should encourage traditional industries to use advanced technology to upgrade production, sales, and other links, promoting industries toward green, intelligent, and high-end directions. This will stabilize the existing industrial scale and employment while nurturing new drivers for innovative development within traditional industries. We should promote the construction of digital workshops and smart factories through scenario-based methods, establishing a batch of typical benchmarks for digital transformation. Led by national advanced manufacturing clusters, we should promote the upgrading of digital infrastructure in national high-tech zones and science and technology parks, facilitating the digital transformation of industrial clusters.
Fourth, develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions. Developing new quality productive forces both requires the coordination of new and old drivers and serves as a guide for them. Different regions have different conditions and capabilities for cultivating new drivers, and different foundations for old drivers; therefore, the methods, paths, and policy measures cannot be identical. We must combine the objective realities of various places—based on resource endowments, industrial foundations, and technical capabilities—to choose appropriate paths for developing new quality productive forces. We cannot deviate from reality, blindly follow trends, or adopt a single model. We must avoid "rushing in all at once" [7] followed by "dispersing all at once." Regions rich in scientific and technological resources and talent pools can focus on cultivating high-tech industries and modern service industries. Regions where traditional industries are clustered should focus on using technology to empower industrial upgrades, forming a powerful force to drive economic growth.
(The author is a specially invited researcher at the CASS Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and Deputy Director of the Institute of Industrial Economics)
Source: Economic Daily (January 22, 2024) Web Editor: Huihui