Ma Yide: Consolidating and Expanding Systemic Advantages for High-Quality Development During the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30 emphasized that "the '15th Five-Year Plan' period is a critical period for laying a solid foundation and exerting full force to basically achieve socialist modernization." It stressed the need to "promote major breakthroughs in strategic tasks concerning the overall situation of Chinese-path modernization" and "ensure that decisive progress is made in basically achieving socialist modernization." As a strategic decisive phase for moving toward the Second Centenary Goal [1] and basically achieving socialist modernization, the "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026–2030) requires a scientific understanding of its historical positioning and the consolidation and expansion of its systemic advantages. This is of great significance for seizing strategic initiative, constructing the new development pattern [2], and ensuring that Chinese-path modernization makes steady and long-term progress.
The Historical Positioning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period
The meeting of the Political Bureau pointed out that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical stage for laying the foundation and exerting full force to basically achieve socialist modernization, clarifying its historical positioning in the great cause of comprehensively promoting the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation through Chinese-path modernization.
A strategic decisive period for building on past achievements and accumulating momentum for success. In terms of chronological nodes, the "15th Five-Year Plan" period succeeds the profound accumulation of over 40 years of reform and opening up and the deep implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan." It precedes the 2035 goal of basically achieving socialist modernization, bearing the heavy responsibility of laying the foundation for reaching the per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country. According to statistics, China's per capita GDP reached 95,749 RMB (approximately $13,400 USD) in 2024. To achieve the 2035 goal of reaching the level of a moderately developed country (approximately $30,000 USD), an average annual economic growth rate of over 4.5% must be maintained. This means that during the "15th Five-Year Plan," we must not only keep economic growth within a reasonable range but, more importantly, achieve a historic leap in qualitative breakthroughs. We must focus on resolving the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development [3], laying the stones and building the foundation [4] to accumulate momentum for long-term development.
A strategic breakout period for responding to global changes. From the perspective of the international environment, the world's changes unseen in a century [5] are accelerating. Our country faces both historic opportunities brought by a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, and the challenge of increased risks of technological decoupling under intensified great power competition. During the "15th Five-Year Plan," the evolution of the global political and economic landscape will manifest three superimposed characteristics. First, geopolitical risks are rising, unilateralism and protectionism are resurging, and industrial and supply chains face pressure for restructuring. Second, technological competition has reached a fever pitch; our country must accelerate the pace of high-level technological self-reliance and strength to break through key core technologies. Third, the momentum for global economic recovery is weak, economic cycle fluctuations are intensifying, and the global economy is undergoing deep adjustments, with a clear trend of growth divergence among different countries. In April 2025, the latest "World Economic Outlook" report released by the International Monetary Fund lowered the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% at the beginning of the year to 2.8%. This global economic downward pressure increases the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of China's development.
A period of deepening and expanding high-quality development. From the perspective of domestic development, China's economy has demonstrated strong transformation momentum during the "14th Five-Year Plan," characterized by three trend-based features: First, the growth rate of total factor productivity is on an upward trend. In 2024, R&D intensity reached 2.68%, with total social R&D expenditure exceeding 3.6 trillion RMB. The proportion of basic research expenditure rose to 6.91%, and China's innovation index ranked 11th globally. Second, the structure of supply and demand is moving toward a higher-level dynamic balance. High-tech manufacturing is leading industrial growth; in the first half of 2025, the value-added of high-tech manufacturing above designated size grew by 9.5% year-on-year, far exceeding the 6.4% overall growth of industrial enterprises above designated size, with a contribution rate of 23.3%. Third, the middle-income group continues to expand: by 2024, the middle-income group exceeded 400 million, and it is expected to surpass 700 million by 2035. The consumption upgrading of the middle-income group drives industrial transformation, providing powerful impetus for high-quality development. The core task of this period lies in consolidating existing transformation achievements, focusing on resolving deep-seated structural contradictions, crossing the "middle-income trap," and comprehensively shaping new drivers and advantages for development. During the "15th Five-Year Plan," the supporting conditions for the long-term positive outlook of China's economy remain unchanged. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee proposed that by 2035, a high-level socialist market economy system will be fully established. As the comprehensive deepening of reform progresses, reform dividends will be further released, promoting the improvement of total factor productivity. The "15th Five-Year Plan" period will be a critical stage for the deepening and expansion of China's high-quality economic development from concept to practice and from partial to global levels. We must scientifically grasp this historical positioning, accurately recognize changes, scientifically respond to them, and proactively seek change.
The Systemic Advantages of High-Quality Development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period
The meeting of the Political Bureau pointed out that our country's economic foundation is stable, its advantages are numerous, its resilience is strong, and its potential is great. The supporting conditions and fundamental trend for long-term improvement have not changed. The advantages of the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics, the advantage of a super-large-scale market, the advantage of a complete industrial system, and the advantage of abundant human resources have become more prominent. During the "15th Five-Year Plan," fully leveraging and continuously consolidating and expanding these significant systemic advantages is the solid support for responding to challenges and grasping opportunities. We must maintain strategic focus, make good use of our advantages, continuously stimulate potential, and transform advantages into a winning position.
Making the advantages of the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics more prominent. The ability to "concentrate resources to accomplish major undertakings" [6] is a significant advantage of our socialist system, enabling the effective coordination of resources from all parties to form a synergy for development. During the "15th Five-Year Plan," the efficiency of the new-type whole-nation system [7] will be further amplified. Under the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, our country provides clear long-term support for the development of frontier technologies and high-tech industries. This includes stable R&D funding to ensure a narrowing of gaps in frontier fields, and a relatively complete policy support system. This not only lightens the economic burden on enterprises but also reduces uncertainty and risk in the R&D process, encouraging more enterprises and scientific research institutions to participate in specific technological innovation activities. Especially regarding breakthroughs in "bottleneck" [8] technologies and the cultivation of strategic emerging industries, a more precise and effective mechanism for tackling key problems will be formed during the "15th Five-Year Plan."
Focusing on promoting the overlapping and mutual promotion of the super-large-scale market advantage and the complete industrial system advantage. China is the country with the most complete industrial categories in the world and will build a powerful domestic market. Relying on the twin advantages of market and industry, expanding domestic demand becomes an "accelerator" for motivating technological and industrial innovation. Under market economy conditions, innovation is the result of multiple factors. Whether it is product innovation by enterprises or industrial transformation and upgrading, it is a dynamic process where market demand pulls the transformation of supply modes. The people's pursuit of a richer and more colorful high-quality life has led to a continuous increase in demand for digital, intelligent, and green consumption scenarios. This demand will directly drive industrial transformation and upgrading toward high-end, digital-intelligent, and green sectors. During the "15th Five-Year Plan," a more positive situation of mutual promotion between supply and demand is expected to emerge. By increasing income levels, improving social security, and optimizing the consumption environment, we will enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness to consume. The coordinated development of protecting and improving people's livelihoods, expanding consumer demand, and moving forward with the construction of a unified national market will become an important path for consolidating and expanding systemic advantages for high-quality development.
Continuously releasing the advantage of rich human resources. The fundamental solution to solving "bottleneck" technological problems and achieving high-level technological self-reliance lies in cultivating and gathering a large number of strategic scientists, engineers, and highly skilled talents with original innovation capabilities. The proportion of China's investment in core human capital relative to GDP is still lower than the average of OECD countries. During the "15th Five-Year Plan," education, science and technology, health, and vocational training should be integrated into "generalized human capital investment." We should strengthen the rigid constraints on targets and set anticipatory indicators such as "the proportion of public talent affairs expenditure in total fiscal expenditure" to ensure that the growth rate of talent-related expenditure is higher than the growth rate of fiscal revenue. As the scale of higher education continues to expand and the vocational education system is perfected, a multi-layered human resource base and a continuously optimized innovation ecosystem will be gradually established, providing a solid talent guarantee for the development of new quality productive forces. Consolidating and expanding these systemic advantages during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will lay a solid foundation for the goal of basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035.