The "14th Five-Year Plan": Solid Steps Toward Chinese Modernization — A Dialogue with Wang Yiming, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges
Five years of cultivation, an extraordinary tempering.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has etched a deep mark on the magnificent voyage of the Chinese economy. During these five years, we have not only stabilized the overall economic situation [1] under complex and severe conditions, but have also taken solid steps on the new journey of advancing Chinese-path modernization through high-quality development. While the leaps in macro-data outline the general trend of development, the strategic choices, policy wisdom, and laws of development contained behind these achievements merit deeper exploration. As the world's second-largest economy, China's high-quality development is both relevant to its own modernization process and holds pivotal significance for the stability and growth of the global economy. To systematically review the developmental achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, decode the sources of Chinese economic resilience, and analyze important directions for future development, this issue of "Dialogue with Economists" specially invites Wang Yiming, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), to provide an in-depth interpretation.
Developmental Achievements: Grasping the Comprehensive Leap in Quantity, Quality, and Efficiency
Reporter: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economy achieved multiple macro objectives: steady growth in scale, effective improvement in quality, and continuous optimization of structure. If you were to comprehensively evaluate the most prominent progress of this period from the three dimensions of scale, quality, and structure, how would you summarize it? Furthermore, what profound impact has this progress had on the stability and evolution of the global economic landscape?
Wang Yiming: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the external environment for our development was severe and complex, while the domestic tasks for reform, development, and stability were heavy and arduous; many situations we encountered had not been seen since the beginning of reform and opening up. Internationally, the world’s once-in-a-century changes are accelerating, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is developing rapidly, and the international balance of power is undergoing profound adjustments. The impact of the pandemic of the century is far-reaching, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, anti-globalization sentiments are rising, and unilateralism and protectionism have increased significantly. The world has entered a period of turbulence and transformation. Domestically, the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development remains prominent, the capacity for technological innovation needs further improvement, pressure on ecological and environmental protection remains high, and the task of promoting high-quality development remains arduous. Faced with a complex and volatile domestic and international situation, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has united and led the people of the whole country to effectively respond to various risks and challenges, concentrated efforts on managing our own affairs, and significantly enhanced China's economic strength, technological strength, and comprehensive national power. Our position within the global development landscape has risen markedly.
First, the economic scale has reached a new level. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) successively crossed three major thresholds: 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan. In 2025, it is expected to reach 140 trillion yuan, and China's status as the world's second-largest economy has been consolidated and enhanced. The economic increment of China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, which is larger than the total economic volume in 2008 and roughly equivalent to the sum of the economic volumes of China's top three provinces—Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong. By international comparison, this increment also exceeds the total economic volume of the world's third-ranked economy. In the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of about 5.5%. If the expected growth target of 5% is achieved in 2025, the average annual growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period will reach about 5.4%. At the same time, China's per capita GDP has exceeded the world average, placing us at the forefront of upper-middle-income countries. For such a large-scale economy to sustain such a growth rate while withstanding the impact of various risks and challenges is a continuation of the miracle of rapid economic growth.
Second, development quality has achieved new improvements. These five years have been a period where high-quality development has been solidly advanced and the quality of economic development has been effectively enhanced. Major progress has been made in building an innovative country. The intensity of total social R&D investment increased from 2.40% in 2020 to 2.69% in 2024, and our ranking in the Global Innovation Index rose from 14th to 10th. The construction of a modern industrial system has accelerated, with emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and biopharmaceuticals rising rapidly. Digital and intelligent technologies have deeply integrated with manufacturing and service industries, pushing industrial development toward the medium-to-high end. The production and sales of new energy vehicles, installed capacity for new energy power generation, and the international market share of shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment have firmly ranked first in the world. Positive results have been achieved in the innovative development of major equipment and key industries: the C919 large passenger aircraft entered commercial operation, the F-class 50-megawatt heavy-duty gas turbine was successfully commercialized, domestic nuclear magnetic resonance instruments achieved mass production, and a series of landmark achievements were made in key industrial chains such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines [2], and medical equipment. Production efficiency has continued to improve, with total factor labor productivity rising to approximately 174,000 yuan per person in 2024.
Third, new progress has been made in structural adjustment. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the economic structure has been continuously optimized. From the perspective of industrial structure, the ratio of primary, secondary, and tertiary industries adjusted from 7.5:36.9:55.5 in 2020 to 6.8:36.5:56.7 in 2024, with the share of the service industry increasing significantly. Advanced manufacturing has expanded rapidly, and the pace of industrial upgrading has quickened. The proportions of added value from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing within the total value added of industrial enterprises above designated size [3] increased to 34.6% and 16.3%, respectively. In 2024, the production of new energy vehicles exceeded 13 million units, and the international market share of the shipbuilding industry led the world. Regarding the demand structure, from 2021 to 2024, the average contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 86.8%, of which the average contribution rate of final consumption expenditure reached 59.9%—an increase of 11.1 percentage points over the "13th Five-Year Plan" period—while the average contribution rate of capital formation to economic growth was approximately 30%. In terms of the urban-rural structure, new-type urbanization has progressed steadily; the urbanization rate of the permanent population rose from 63.89% in 2020 to 67.0% in 2024. The pace of granting permanent urban residency to the migrant agricultural population [4] has accelerated. During the same period, the ratio of per capita disposable income between urban and rural residents decreased from 2.56:1 to 2.34:1. Regarding regional structure, the role of the eastern region in leading innovation has been strengthened, the pace of opening up in the central and western regions has accelerated, and the economy of the Northeast has stabilized and rebounded; the balance and coordination of regional development have been continuously enhanced.
China's economic development has not only changed itself but also influenced the world. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's contribution rate to world economic growth remained at around 30%, making it the most stable engine of global economic growth. As a super-large-scale economy, the spillover effects of our development are significant. In 2024, China's total imports and exports of goods reached 43.8 trillion yuan, a record high in scale, maintaining our status as the world's largest trader in goods for eight consecutive years. The export of high-quality, reasonably priced goods has created favorable conditions for many countries to maintain price stability and improve national welfare. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's exported wind and solar products helped other countries reduce carbon emissions by a cumulative total of approximately 4.1 billion tons, making a major contribution to the global low-carbon transition. China has proactively expanded imports, creating vast market opportunities for other countries and vigorously driving world economic growth.
Reporter: Adhering to the new development philosophy of innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing is an important principle followed for economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. In your view, how have these five major concepts been transformed from top-level design into vivid practices across various regions and fields, ultimately forging the unique resilience and vitality of China's economic development?
Wang Yiming: During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China persisted in taking the new development philosophy as its guide, continuously opening up new fields and tracks for development, and shaping new drivers and advantages for growth.
First, innovative development has yielded significant results. Over these five years, the innovation-driven development strategy has been deeply implemented, and breakthroughs have been made in core technologies in key fields. The "Tiangong" space station transitioned to routine operation, "Chang'e-6" achieved a sample return from the far side of the moon, and "Haidou-1" completed a 10,000-meter sea trial. 5G communication has achieved large-scale application, and Beidou Navigation provides precise global services. The production and sales of new energy vehicles rank first in the world, and the CR450 EMU [5] has consolidated and expanded China's world-leading advantage in high-speed rail technology. The world's first fourth-generation nuclear power plant has entered commercial operation, ultra-high voltage power transmission and transformation lead the world, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power ranks first globally. In 2024, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size grew by 42% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan"; the added value of the "three new" economy [6] accounted for 18% of GDP; and new economic growth drivers are forming in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
Second, coordinated development has progressed solidly. New results have been achieved in coordinated regional development, and major regional strategies have been deeply implemented. The level of coordinated development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has continuously improved, major phased results have been achieved in the construction of the Xiong'an New Area, and initial success has been seen in relieving Beijing of functions non-essential to its role as the capital. The green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has been vigorously promoted, and the "4+1" project [7] for rectifying prominent ecological environment problems and pollution control has shown significant results. Infrastructure connectivity and the alignment of rules in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area have continued to deepen, and the construction of major cooperation platforms such as Hengqin, Qianhai, Nansha, and Hetao has been carried out in depth. Integration levels in key areas like infrastructure, ecological environment, and public services in the Yangtze River Delta have significantly improved, and the integrated development of technological and industrial innovation is being actively promoted. The construction of the pioneering area for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin has accelerated, and the quality of the ecological environment in the basin has continuously improved. The level and quality of urbanization have risen steadily, the coverage of basic urban public services for the non-registered permanent population [8] has continued to expand, and urban infrastructure and public services have continued to extend to rural areas. The institutional mechanisms and policy systems for integrated urban-rural development have been further improved.
Third, green development has made obvious progress. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the battle against pollution was pushed forward in depth, positive results were achieved in the work toward carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and solid steps were taken in green development. We have built the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with the share of installed renewable energy capacity rising from 40% to about 60%. The proportion of non-fossil energy in China's energy consumption has increased by 1 percentage point annually and is expected to exceed the 20% target set in the "14th Five-Year Plan." We have formed a "1+N" policy system [9] for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and built the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, which operates stably and covers more than 60% of the national carbon emissions. We launched the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market and accelerated the establishment of a product carbon footprint management system. Green finance has developed rapidly, and green industries have become a new force driving economic growth.
Fourth, open development has continued to deepen. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the pace of high-level opening up to the outside world accelerated. The scale of trade in goods remained the largest in the world, the international market share of exports stabilized at over 14%, and China's status as the leading nation in trade in goods was consolidated and enhanced. The scale of trade in services remained second in the world, exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in 2024. The negative list for foreign investment access has been continuously shortened, with restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector now completely "cleared." Pilot programs for opening up service sectors such as value-added telecommunications and biotechnology have been carried out in an orderly manner. Since the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," cumulative absorption of foreign investment has exceeded the expected target of $700 billion. International cooperation on production and supply chains has proceeded in an orderly fashion, and the average annual growth rate of outward investment has exceeded 5%, ranking among the top three in the world. Free Trade Zones have effectively functioned as comprehensive testing platforms for reform and opening up, proactively aligning with high-standard international economic and trade rules and conducting pilot trials. We have expanded autonomous and unilateral opening in an orderly manner, implemented the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with high quality, and actively advanced the process of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA). In 2024, China's trade in goods with Free Trade partners (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) accounted for 43% of total trade.
Fifth, shared development has progressed steadily. In recent years, we have strengthened the construction of inclusive, fundamental, and baseline livelihood projects, enhanced human capital levels, and promoted all-around human development so that the fruits of development benefit all people more extensively and equitably. We have strengthened the employment-first policy, issued a series of measures to reduce burdens, stabilize posts, and expand employment, and adopted multiple measures to promote the employment and entrepreneurship of key groups such as college graduates, veterans, and migrant workers. The quality of the education system has risen steadily; the gross enrollment rate for preschool education, the consolidation rate for nine-year compulsory education, the gross enrollment rate for senior secondary education, and the gross enrollment rate for higher education have increased to 92%, 95.9%, 92%, and 60.8% respectively. The construction of world-class universities and first-class disciplines [10] has been pushed forward continuously. Adhering to the principle of "people first, life first," we achieved a decisive victory in the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic, protecting the lives and health of the people to the maximum extent. The health level of residents has continued to improve, and major health indicators are at the forefront of upper-middle-income countries. The level of social security has continued to rise, and the coverage of social insurance has further expanded.
Practice has proven that the new development philosophy, through a series of strategic measures, key reforms, and supportive projects, has been transformed into tangible actions and results across all regions and fields. Together, these have shaped a new picture of a Chinese economy with an optimized structure, stronger resilience, greater potential, and more abundant vitality.
Transformation of Power: Breakthrough Progress and Upgrading of Comparative Advantages
Reporter: Looking back...
Regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021–2025), which fields or industry breakthroughs do you believe are the most iconic? How are these breakthroughs reshaping the internal driving forces of our country's economic growth?
Wang Yiming: During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, our country achieved a series of landmark breakthroughs in development. Capabilities for scientific and technological innovation have increased significantly, the construction of a modern industrial system has accelerated, and major progress has been made in the green and low-carbon transition. All of these have helped drive the transformation of China’s economic development engines.
First, the capacity for scientific and technological innovation has risen substantially. Investment in science and technology has continued to increase; in 2024, total societal R&D expenditure exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase over 2020. R&D intensity reached 2.69%, surpassing the average level of EU countries. The level of basic research has further improved, with basic research funding reaching 249.7 billion yuan—an increase of over 70% compared to 2020. A batch of major original achievements has been attained in fields such as quantum technology, life sciences, material sciences, and space science. For five consecutive years, the number of papers in high-level international journals and the number of international patent applications have maintained the top spot globally. Comprehensive scientific and technological strength has risen markedly. The roles of Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as international platforms for scientific and technological innovation in providing support, leadership, and regional spillover effects [11] have continuously strengthened. The "Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou" innovation cluster has jumped to the top of the Global Innovation Index’s top 100 clusters, while the construction of regional innovation centers in Chengdu-Chongqing, Wuhan, and Xi'an is also accelerating.
Second, the construction of a modern industrial system has accelerated. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s new-type industrialization [12] achieved new progress and accomplishments. The international competitiveness of manufacturing has strengthened, with the value-added of manufacturing accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, maintaining its position as number one in the world for 15 consecutive years. The advantages of having a complete range of manufacturing categories and a comprehensive system have become more apparent; among the 504 major industrial products in the world, China ranks first in output for the majority of them. In the field of advanced manufacturing, technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things (IoT), and big data are empowering the transition from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing. China has the largest number of "Lighthouse Factories" in the world, accounting for over 40% of the global total. The level of self-control and security [13] of key industrial chains has steadily improved, with landmark results achieved in key chains such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines [14], and medical equipment. The process of digitalization, intellectualization, and high-end transformation in manufacturing has accelerated, and the world's largest and most extensive network infrastructure has been completed. AI is empowering "thousands of lines and tens of thousands of industries" [15]; a new generation of smart terminals and intelligent agents is accelerating in application and promotion, and China's share of new industrial robot installations has exceeded 50% of the global total.
Third, major progress has been made in the green and low-carbon transition. Annual new installations of wind and solar power have successively broken through the 100-million, 200-million, and 300-million kilowatt marks, with a speed and intensity of development that is unprecedented. Solar conversion efficiency and the single-unit capacity of offshore wind turbines continue to refresh world records. Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) nationwide have exceeded 40 million units, with production and sales volume maintaining the top spot globally for 10 consecutive years. The battle for pollution prevention and control has achieved new results. In 2024, the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in cities at the prefecture level and above nationwide dropped to 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter, a 16.3% decrease from 2020. The proportion of days with "good" air quality reached 87.2%, up 2.4 percentage points from 2020. The proportion of surface water sections with excellent water quality reached 90.4%, exceeding 90% for the first time, and the water quality of the main streams of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers has maintained Grade II status for several consecutive years. We have deeply implemented the national strategy for actively responding to climate change, promoted carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in an active and steady manner, and the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions has continued to decline. We have actively promoted the construction of the national carbon market, building the world's largest carbon emission rights trading market in terms of greenhouse gas coverage. In 2025, the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries will be newly incorporated, and the national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market has been launched. We are improving standards for product carbon footprint accounting and promoting the international alignment and mutual recognition of carbon footprint accounting rules and standards. China's ecological and environmental conditions have undergone a historic turning point; smoggy weather is becoming increasingly rare, while blue skies, white clouds, lush mountains, and lucid waters are becoming more common.
Reporter: Breakthroughs in these fields also signal that the comparative advantage of our country's participation in global competition is constantly upgrading. Our traditional advantage lay in low labor costs, whereas now a new set of advantages centered on an ultra-large-scale market and a complete industrial chain has formed. How should we understand this upgrade in comparative advantage?
Wang Yiming: For a period after the Reform and Opening-up, China primarily relied on the advantage of low labor costs to participate in international competition. In recent years, as this low-cost advantage has gradually weakened, cultivating new advantages has become even more urgent. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's advantages in its ultra-large-scale market, complete industrial chain, scientific and technological innovation, the digital economy, and new energy have gradually taken shape. These are being transformed into new comprehensive competitive advantages, pushing China's industries toward the medium-to-high end of the global value chain.
The advantage of an ultra-large-scale market lies in its ability to dilute costs in manufacturing research and development, investment, logistics, marketing, and procurement, providing broad space for exerting economies of scale and reducing comprehensive costs. The advantage of a complete industrial chain has formed a powerful industrial supporting capability and a comprehensive cost advantage. Vitality in scientific and technological innovation is conducive to the marketization and iterative upgrading of technological achievements, supporting the development of emerging industries and the construction of a modern industrial system. The advantages of the digital economy are becoming apparent; China has built approximately 4.6 million 5G base stations, with technology and user numbers remaining world-leading, and more fields and industries are achieving digital transformation and upgrading. The new energy advantage is manifested in the continuous breaking of world records for the efficiency of photovoltaic crystalline silicon cells, with renewable energy power generation capacity accounting for about 60% of the total, and the increase in new energy power generation accounting for nearly 50% of the national increase in power generation. These new comparative advantages are accelerating in their evolution. They can be transformed not only into final product price advantages, allowing Chinese manufacturing to maintain strong competitiveness, but also can consolidate the foundation of development from a deep structural level, injecting new vitality into economic growth.
Theoretical Interpretation: Deepening Understanding of Regular Patterns Through Practice
Reporter: To do economic work well, one must constantly refine their understanding of regular patterns and form a systematic methodology. Looking back at the "14th Five-Year Plan," amid the response to unprecedented risks and challenges, what do you believe is the most important understanding of regular patterns we have formed? How has this understanding guided our macroeconomic policies and practice?
Wang Yiming: The fundamental reason why China’s economic and social development has achieved such major accomplishments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period lies in the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core. At key moments and critical junctures, the CPC Central Committee has assessed the situation in a timely manner, made decisions and deployments, and continuously summarized experiences, elevating them into an understanding of regular patterns [16] to lead the ship of China’s economy through wind and waves toward steady and sustained progress. This understanding of regular patterns is centrally expressed as the "five must-coordinates."
First, we must coordinate the relationship between an effective market and a capable government. The combination of an effective market and a capable government is the key factor in the success of China's socialist market economy. A "capable government" means improving the basic institutional systems of the market economy—such as property rights protection, market access, fair competition, and social credit—and accelerating the construction of a unified national market to provide a stage for fair competition for all types of business entities. An "effective market" means using market mechanisms to promote the survival of the fittest, aggregate innovation resources, allow the vitality of various factors to burst forth, and let all sources of social wealth flow fully. To do economic work well, we must both give full play to the role of an effective market—creating a fairer and more dynamic market environment to achieve optimal resource allocation efficiency and maximize benefits—and give play to the role of a capable government—improving the macroeconomic governance system, correcting market failures, and making the "two hands" of the government and the market combine effectively and complement each other, thereby continuously enhancing the vigor and vitality of the socialist market economy system.
Second, we must coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand. The dynamic balance of total supply and total demand is the basic condition for achieving stable and healthy economic development. Achieving such a balance requires concerted efforts from both the supply and demand sides, as well as the coordinated planning of domestic demand expansion and supply optimization. As an ultra-large economy, China’s economic development must take the expansion of domestic demand as its strategic starting point, accelerating the closing of gaps in domestic demand—especially in consumption—so that domestic demand becomes the main driver and stabilizing anchor of economic growth. By giving full play to the advantages of our ultra-large-scale market and super-strong supply capacity, we can clear bottlenecks and "choke points" in the economic cycle, promote positive interaction between supply and demand, and achieve a higher-level dynamic balance between the two. At the same time, we must stabilize the fundamentals of foreign trade and foreign investment, steadily open up diversified international markets, and both expand exports and increase imports to promote internal and external economic balance, constructing a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the mainstay and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other.
Third, we must coordinate the relationship between cultivating new drivers and updating old drivers. Economic development requires promoting a smooth transition between old and new development engines. We must seize the opportunities of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation to cultivate a batch of emerging and future industries and grow new drivers. We must also transform and upgrade traditional industries and optimize old drivers through various paths such as digital empowerment, process upgrades, and management innovation. By taking scientific and technological innovation as the key support for cultivating new drivers, strengthening basic research and breakthroughs in key core technologies, we strive to create new industrial engines with high technological content, strong market competitiveness, and significant leading roles, thereby cultivating and developing new quality productive forces. Since resource endowments and industrial development levels vary greatly across China, developing new quality productive forces must be adapted to local conditions [17]; we cannot blindly follow trends or rush into things all at once. We must fully consider the actual situation of each region, leverage its unique advantages, find the best path, and form a cultivation model for new quality productive forces with local characteristics.
Fourth, we must coordinate the relationship between optimizing increments and revitalizing stocks [18]. Optimizing increments and revitalizing stocks complement and promote each other. After more than 40 years of rapid development since the Reform and Opening-up, China has accumulated a huge scale of various assets; the scale of "stock" resources is considerable, and the potential for revitalization is great. For example, effectively revitalizing assets such as land to promote "emptying the cage for new birds" [19] in industrial parks; revitalizing various types of low-efficiency urban land to promote urban renewal; implementing the transformation of "villages in cities" [20]; and advancing the renovation and utilization of old streets, old residential areas, and old buildings. Practice has proven that optimizing increments can provide conditions and opportunities for revitalizing stocks, and revitalizing stocks can provide space and resources for optimizing increments. By organically combining the two, we can better tap into development potential and expand development space.
Fifth, we must coordinate the relationship between improving quality and increasing total volume. Economic development is an organic unity of quality and quantity: the improvement of quality provides continuous momentum for the growth of quantity, and the growth of quantity provides an important foundation for the improvement of quality; the two complement each other. On one hand, we must combine the demand traction of the ultra-large-scale market with rich application scenarios and a complete industrial system to accelerate the cultivation of more world-class enterprises and expand the total economic volume, providing fertile soil and space for quality improvement. On the other hand, by enhancing innovation capabilities, increasing investment in new technologies, and strengthening the digital-intelligent and green transformation of traditional industries, we must rely more on improving product and service quality to enhance market competitiveness and expand market share, opening new space for quantitative growth. It is precisely by insisting on the organic unity of the quality and quantity of economic development—leading reasonable quantitative growth through effective quality improvement and supporting effective quality improvement through reasonable quantitative growth—that we can better achieve the simultaneous rise of both the quantity and quality of economic development.
Future Outlook: Development Direction and Priorities for the "15th Five-Year Plan"
Reporter: Looking to the future, especially the "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026–2030), what new internal requirements and external conditions will China's economic and social development face? What development directions and priorities should we be anchored to?
Wang Yiming: The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a key period for laying a solid foundation and exerting full force to basically achieve socialist modernization. China's development faces the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risk challenges, with an increase in uncertain and unpredictable factors. We must accurately recognize changes, respond to them scientifically, and seek changes proactively.
From the perspective of the international environment, the new round of technological revolution will enter a period of acceleration. It will be characterized by the dominance of artificial intelligence, intersecting and merging with fields like quantum technology and life sciences in a multi-point breakthrough pattern, reshaping the global competitive landscape. The growth of the world economy is entering a period of slowdown; factors such as the rise of trade protectionism, continuously climbing global debt, and the acceleration of population aging will drag down global economic growth. Global industrial and supply chains are entering a period of restructuring; the layout of these chains is shifting from being cost- and efficiency-driven to being centered on security and stability, which will increase the risk of global economic "fragmentation." The strategic game between major powers has entered a critical period; the United States regards China as its "greatest strategic competitor" and adopts various means of suppression. For China, the most important thing is to maintain our strategic resolve, bolster our confidence in victory, concentrate on handling our own affairs well, and win the strategic initiative in the midst of fierce international competition.
From the perspective of domestic development, high-quality development is likely to enter a period of "tackling fortifications" [21]. As the contribution of the quantity of labor to economic growth gradually weakens, and factors such as an aging population lead to a decline in the savings rate, the contribution of capital formation to economic growth continues to fall. Consequently, the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to economic growth will become more prominent. New-type industrialization is entering a period of deepening; the large-scale expansion of heavy and chemical industries is nearing its end, and the development of traditional industries is successively reaching its peak and will transition into a "plateau" period. At the same time, the digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of industries will significantly accelerate, promoting the digitalization, intelligence, and high-end development of the industrial sector. Urbanization is entering a transition period; the contribution of the migrant agricultural population to the new urban population is declining, and urbanization is shifting from a period of rapid growth to a period of stable development. Urban development is moving from a stage characterized by large-scale incremental expansion to a stage focused primarily on improving the quality and efficiency of the existing stock. Green development is entering a critical period of "tackling fortifications." As the economic structure changes and energy efficiency improves, the growth rate of energy consumption will gradually slow down. However, after the emissions of various pollutants successively peak, they will enter a high-level "plateau" period, making the task of green and low-carbon transition even more arduous.
The report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC made a general strategic arrangement of "two steps" [22] for the comprehensive buildup of a great modern socialist country. The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026–2030) is a crucial period for connecting the past and the future in our country’s basic realization of socialist modernization. We must uphold high-quality development as the "hard truth" [23] of the New Era, regard the promotion of Chinese-path modernization as the primary political task, lead development with the New Development Philosophy [24], develop new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions, and continuously consolidate the material foundation for Chinese-path modernization to ensure that decisive progress is made in basically realizing socialist modernization.
(Reporter: Ouyang You) Source: Economic Daily (October 15, 2025) Web Editor: Huihui