Li Liguo: Improving Quality and Expanding Capacity: Strategic Priorities for Higher Education During the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period
The Recommendation of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (hereinafter referred to as the "Recommendation"), adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Party Committee [1], proposed to "promote the quality enhancement and capacity expansion of higher education, and expand the enrollment scale of high-quality undergraduate education." The Outline of the Plan for Building a Leading Country in Education (2024–2035) (hereinafter referred to as the "Outline") further proposed the orderly expansion of enrollment for high-quality undergraduate education. Quality enhancement and capacity expansion (提质扩容) constitute a strategic priority for higher education development during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period [2]. It is a concrete manifestation of "investing in people" to "form an advantage in abundant human resources," and an essential requirement for serving socio-economic development and Chinese-path modernization through the high-quality development of higher education.
Quality enhancement and capacity expansion are inevitable requirements for higher education development during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee proposed that the theme for the next five years is to promote high-quality development. In promoting high-quality development, the most critical task is to accelerate high-level self-reliance and self-strengthening in science and technology. From seizing the commanding heights of technology to developing new quality productive forces and promoting high-quality development, whoever can cultivate and aggregate more outstanding talent will occupy the dominant position in the competition. In building a leading country in education, higher education serves as the "dragon's head" (龙头) [3]. Looking across the globe, any leading country in education is invariably a powerhouse in higher education. Higher education is the intersection where the development of education, technology, and talent converges; it is the vital link connecting technology as the primary productive force, talent as the primary resource, and innovation as the primary driver; it is the optimal point of integration for education, technology, and talent. Higher education holds a significant and special status and role in building a leading country in education, technology, and talent.
Currently, China has built the world's largest higher education system. However, compared to national strategies, the demands of socio-economic development, and the public's expectations for high-quality higher education, there remains significant room for quality enhancement and capacity expansion, and a certain gap still exists compared to higher education in developed countries. Notably, the school-age population for higher education in China will continue to grow during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period, and the peak of enrollment has not yet arrived. Facing the national strategic needs of this period, China's higher education requires sustained growth. However, this growth is by no means a simple increase in numbers or extensional expansion (外延扩张) [4]. Its core lies in using quality enhancement and capacity expansion as an opportunity to promote and achieve the intensive development (内涵式发展) [5] of higher education, realizing a synergistic leap in both "quality" and "quantity." This requires a profound grasp of the internal logic of the integrated development of education, technology, and talent. While orderly expanding the coverage of high-quality resources, we must focus even more on optimizing the structure of disciplines and majors, deepening innovation in talent cultivation models, strengthening the cultivation of top-notch innovative talents, and effectively transforming "strength in education" into a surging momentum driving "strength in the nation," thereby providing talent and intellectual support for the comprehensive buildup of a great modern socialist country.
Quality enhancement and capacity expansion are the strategic manifestation of "investing in people" during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period
The "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period occupies an important position in connecting the past and the future within the process of basically realizing socialist modernization in China. It is a critical stage for China to move toward the level of a moderately developed country. The economic development model is undergoing a profound transformation from factor-driven to innovation-driven, where improving total factor productivity has become key, and the effective supply of high-quality talent and laborers has become the focus. Particular attention must be paid to the fact that although the school-age population for higher education is still increasing during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China will face the massive challenges of a declining birthrate and an aging population in the future. In the face of profound changes in the population structure, how to promote the transformation from a "population dividend" to a "talent dividend" has become a focus of social concern.
Responding to the shocks brought by the technological revolution and demographic changes requires a shift from "investing in things" to "investing in people." We must accelerate the strategy of "seeking strength through quality" (以质图强). Through quality enhancement and capacity expansion, we can expand high-quality higher education resources, ensuring that China's human resources are effectively improved and fully utilized. The enhancement of the national educational and health levels will effectively offset the impact of population aging. During the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" and the period beyond, we must use quality enhancement and capacity expansion as a grasp (抓手) [6] to accelerate the construction of a high-quality education system, promote the integrated development of education, technology, and talent, and achieve an effective reserve of the talent dividend. This will form an advantage in abundant human resources, providing an effective supply of high-quality talent for sustained and healthy economic development and comprehensive social progress, better serving the construction of Chinese-path modernization.
Quality enhancement and capacity expansion must be combined with the optimization of the talent cultivation structure
China's higher education talent cultivation structure exhibits a significant "pyramid" shape—that is, the proportion of higher vocational and junior colleges is relatively high, while the proportion of postgraduate education and universities in the "Double First-Class" initiative [7] is relatively low. As of 2024, among the total number of higher education admissions in China, vocational and junior college admissions account for over 50%, exceeding undergraduate admissions. The total scale of students in various forms of higher education nationwide is 48.46 million, with 4.0954 million postgraduate students, accounting for less than 10% of the total. In developed countries, postgraduate education generally accounts for more than 20% of the talent cultivation structure, undergraduates account for over 60%, and vocational students account for between 20% and 30%. Furthermore, there are only 147 "Double First-Class" universities in China, and their undergraduate admissions account for less than 6% of the total admissions in the National College Entrance Examination (Gaokao). These data indicate that "getting into university" is no longer a difficult problem, but the dilemma that "it is difficult to get into a good university" urgently needs to be broken. In recent years, although the number of admissions to high-quality higher education institutions, represented by "Double First-Class" universities, has been increasing, a significant gap still remains when compared to the aspirations of the masses—especially Gaokao candidates and their parents—for high-quality education, the needs of socio-economic development and technological progress, and the higher education development in developed countries.
During the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period, in the face of the enrollment peak of the school-age population and the demands of the technological revolution and industrial upgrading, the structure of China's higher education talent cultivation must be adjusted and optimized, moving from the current "pyramid" shape to an "olive" shape [8]. The "Recommendation" proposes to deeply promote the construction of "Double First-Class" universities. The "Outline" proposes to "orderly expand the enrollment scale of high-quality undergraduate education, expand the scale of postgraduate training, steadily increase the proportion of doctoral students, and vigorously develop professional degree postgraduate education." During the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period, we must optimize the talent cultivation structure, achieve quality enhancement and capacity expansion, and build a high-quality education system through measures such as accelerating the construction of "Double First-Class" universities, expanding their enrollment scale, achieving the expansion of high-quality undergraduate admissions, actively developing postgraduate education, and developing vocational undergraduate education.
Quality enhancement and capacity expansion must be combined with the adjustment of discipline and major settings
The "Recommendation" proposes to coordinate the setting of disciplines. Currently, the setting of disciplines and majors in China's higher education cannot yet fully adapt to the needs of national strategy, socio-economic development, technological progress, and industrial upgrading. In the process of quality enhancement and capacity expansion, it is necessary to adjust and optimize the mechanism for setting disciplines, establishing and perfecting a mechanism where the adjustment of disciplines and talent cultivation models are led by technological development and national strategic needs, thereby continuously enhancing the support and contribution of higher education to high-quality development.
Quality enhancement and capacity expansion in higher education does not mean blindly expanding any discipline or major. Instead, it involves expanding disciplines and majors that face national strategic needs, technological progress, and socio-economic development; disciplines where universities have operational advantages or distinctive characteristics; and disciplines required for future industries and strategic emerging industries. Quality must be improved simultaneously with expansion. In this process, we must correctly handle the relationships between basic and applied disciplines; traditional, emerging, and interdisciplinary fields; frontier and advantageous disciplines versus weak ones; and urgently needed versus general disciplines. We must handle the relationships between "long boards" and "short boards" (strengths and weaknesses), stock and increment, and the present and the future. Warning signs and rectification requirements should be issued for disciplines and majors with clearly insufficient social demand, declining training quality, or inadequate operating conditions. We should focus on developing disciplines required by national strategies, target strategic emerging industries and future industries, and rapidly deploy a batch of new discipline and major points. We should implement incubation actions for emerging and interdisciplinary subjects and deploy a number of exemplary interdisciplinary centers. Universities should be granted a certain degree of autonomy in setting disciplines, supporting them to independently establish emerging and interdisciplinary subjects based on economic and industrial needs, and strengthening the linked response between disciplines/majors and regional industry and socio-economic development. Through quality enhancement and capacity expansion, we can optimize disciplines and majors, focusing on the development of advantageous and distinctive disciplines needed for national strategies and socio-economic development, achieving differentiated and characteristic development, and reaching higher levels of excellence.
Quality enhancement and capacity expansion must be combined with the optimization of the layout of higher education institutions
China has a vast territory and a large population, making the scientific layout of higher education extremely important. The "Recommendation" proposes to optimize the layout of higher education institutions. This involves optimizing the relationship between ministry-affiliated and local universities, "Double First-Class" and non-"Double First-Class" universities, universities in the eastern, central, and western regions, and different types of institutions such as research-oriented, applied, and skill-oriented universities. Through quality enhancement and capacity expansion, we must achieve the coordinated development of all types of universities and build a high-quality higher education system.
In China's current higher education system, universities affiliated with central ministries account for less than 5%, while local universities account for 95%. Ministry-affiliated universities have higher levels of academic performance, and most of them are "Double First-Class" institutions. The development of higher education in the eastern, central, and western regions is imbalanced, with the east developing more rapidly. The quality enhancement and capacity expansion of higher education must balance fairness and efficiency. On one hand, we must develop existing high-quality higher education resources, independently and scientifically determine "Double First-Class" evaluation standards, and promote the classified development of universities, encouraging them to strive for excellence in different fields. Research universities should focus on the frontiers of world science and technology and major national and regional strategic needs, cultivating theoretical and innovative talent. Applied universities should focus on regional economic development and industrial transformation/upgrading, cultivating applied talent needed for regional industries and society. Skill-oriented colleges should focus on local industries and social needs, cultivating skilled, operational, and job-specific talent. On the other hand, high-quality higher education resources should be tilted toward universities in the central and western regions and local universities, improving their overall quality and operational level, and enhancing their capacity to serve national strategies and regional socio-economic development.