Zhang Shunyue: Viewing the Transitional Role of the "15th Five-Year Plan" Period from a Grand Historical Perspective
The "Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for the Formulating of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," deliberated and adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, made the significant judgment that "the period of the 'Fifteenth Five-Year Plan' holds an important position in the process of basically achieving socialist modernization, acting as a link between the past and the future." This carries important guiding significance for us to adhere to a macro-historical view [1] on the New Journey in the New Era, to profoundly understand the historical process of Chinese-path modernization, and to accurately grasp the themes, main threads, mainstream, and essence of the history of the People’s Republic of China.
A Staircase-like Progressive Historical Process
General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: "From the first Five-Year Plan to the fourteenth Five-Year Plan, the consistent theme has been building our country into a modern socialist country." Examining the development process of Chinese-path modernization through a macro-historical view, one can see that it exhibits distinct characteristics of staircase-like progression. From the gradual laying of the foundation for industrialization after the founding of New China, to the economic takeoff after the beginning of Reform and Opening-up, and finally to the comprehensive building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and the initiation of the New Journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country since the New Era, every historical stage has used the achievements of the previous stage as its cornerstone. Under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, the nation has continuously advanced toward higher goals. Among these, the use of medium- and long-term planning to guide economic and social development is an important method of our Party’s governance of the country, driving Chinese-path modernization steadily forward.
Before the founding of New China, faced with the social reality of extreme poverty and weakness, many people of insight proposed the planned advancement of China's modernization. However, under the oppression of the "Three Great Mountains" [2], it was fundamentally impossible for old China to realize this dream. Only after the Communist Party of China united and led the Chinese people through bloody battles to achieve victory in the New Democratic Revolution [3] and establish New China—where the people are masters of the country—were the fundamental social conditions created for the planned advancement of China’s modernization cause.
After the founding of New China, we carried out the socialist revolution and established the basic socialist system, providing the fundamental political prerequisite and institutional basis for modernization. The Communist Party of China proposed the striving to build our country into a great socialist power with modern agriculture, modern industry, modern national defense, and modern science and technology. Starting from 1953, the Party led the implementation of several Five-Year Plans, enabling New China to establish an independent and relatively complete industrial system and national economic system, providing valuable experience, theoretical preparation, and material foundations for modernization.
After Reform and Opening-up, "Five-Year Plans" (计划, jìhuà) gradually transitioned into "Five-Year Blueprints" (规划, guīhuà) [4], which are more strategic and guiding under the conditions of a socialist market economy. On one hand, we placed greater emphasis on the role of the market in resource allocation. On the other, we focused more on the strategic orientation and macro-guidance of these blueprints to promote comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable economic and social development. Through several Five-Year Blueprints (Plans), our country achieved a historic breakthrough from a state of relatively backward productive forces to becoming the world's second-largest economy by total volume. We realized a historic leap for the people’s lives—from lacking sufficient food and clothing to achieving general moderate prosperity, and then moving toward comprehensive moderate prosperity. This provided the institutional guarantee full of new vitality and the material conditions for rapid development required for Chinese-path modernization.
As socialism with Chinese characteristics entered the New Era, Five-Year Blueprints have placed greater emphasis on innovation-driven development, high-quality development, and common prosperity. They have incorporated ecological civilization construction, high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and strength, and national security systems into the overall strategic situation. This has driven the cause of the Party and the country to achieve historic achievements and undergo historic transformations, providing Chinese-path modernization with a more refined institutional guarantee, a more solid material foundation, and more proactive spiritual strength. Specifically, during the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China's economic strength, technological strength, and comprehensive national power have reached new heights. Chinese-path modernization has taken new and solid steps, and the New Journey toward the Second Centenary Goal [5] has achieved a good start.
A Critical Period for Strengthening Foundations and Fully Exerting Force
The "Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" points out that "the 'Fifteenth Five-Year Plan' period is a critical period for strengthening the foundations and fully exerting force to basically achieve socialist modernization." A macro-historical view emphasizes both the continuity of history and the significant role of critical temporal nodes. The "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period occupies a special and important historical position in the process of social modernization. Since the New Era, we have proposed the comprehensive building of a great modern socialist power. The general strategic arrangement is divided into "two steps": first, from 2020 to 2035, to basically achieve socialist modernization; second, from 2035 to the middle of this century, to build China into a great modern socialist power that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful. The "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period is precisely the critical stage for laying the decisive foundation for the goal of basically achieving socialist modernization. This period links the past and the future; it must both consolidate and expand the major achievements of the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" and create the conditions for the comprehensive final sprint of the "Sixteenth Five-Year Plan." It determines the success or failure of the overall situation of Chinese-path modernization and serves as an important strategic window for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. We must firmly grasp this historical opportunity, adhere to the general work guideline of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and ensure that decisive progress is made in basically achieving socialist modernization.
A macro-historical view also requires us to broaden our perspective and consider issues from the relationship between China and the world. Today, the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, which are accelerating. From an international perspective, international power structures are undergoing profound adjustments, and a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating toward breakthroughs. At the same time, the world is characterized by a convergence of changes and disorder; instability is intensifying, geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and the game between major powers is becoming more complex and intense. All of this brings enormous challenges to China’s development and security during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period.
At the same time, however, China's economic base is stable, its advantages are numerous, its resilience is strong, and its potential is vast. The supporting conditions and basic trend of long-term improvement have not changed. The superiority of the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics in "concentrating resources to accomplish major undertakings" [6] will be further highlighted in responding to risks and challenges and promoting major innovations. The enormous potential of domestic demand hidden in an ultra-large-scale market, the powerful supply capacity formed by a complete industrial system, and the large-scale, high-quality talent pool constitute a solid foundation for our country to respond to changes and open up new situations. All of these provide many favorable factors for us to proactively manage international space, shape the external environment, and properly handle complex situations.
In short, changes contain opportunities, and challenges stimulate the will to fight. We must strengthen our "Four Confidences" [7], maintain strategic resolve, increase our confidence in victory, and actively identify, respond to, and seek changes, striving to create a new situation for the construction of Chinese-path modernization.
Striving to Create a New Situation with the Spirit of Historical Initiative
The "Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes that achieving socialist modernization "requires unremitting efforts and continuous struggle." Faced with the heavy responsibility bestowed by history, during the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period, we must employ a stronger spirit of historical initiative [8] to overcome difficulties, battle risks, meet challenges, and win the strategic initiative at this critical juncture that links the past and the future.
First, build a modern industrial system and consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy. The focus is on adhering to the directions of intelligence, greening, and integration; accelerating the construction of a country strong in manufacturing, quality, aerospace, transportation, and cyberspace; maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing; and constructing a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone.
Second, further comprehensively deepen reform and expand high-level opening-up to the outside world. Adhere to the combination of an effective market and a capable government, construct a high-level socialist market economy system, and resolutely break through the bottlenecks and obstacles hindering the construction of a unified national market. Adhere to open cooperation and mutual benefit, actively expand autonomous opening-up, promote innovative development in trade, expand the space for two-way investment cooperation, and promote the high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road."
Third, build a strong domestic market and promote coordinated regional development. Adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand; closely combine improving people's livelihoods with promoting consumption; and combine investment in "things" with investment in "people." Enhance the internal momentum and reliability of the domestic big circulation. Harness the overlapping effects of regional coordinated development strategies, major regional strategies, functional zone strategies, and new urbanization strategies; enhance the coordination of regional development; promote regional linked development; optimize the development pattern of national territorial space; deeply advance people-centered new urbanization; and strengthen the development, utilization, and protection of the oceans.
Fourth, promote a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development and build a Beautiful China. With "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" [9] as the driver, coordinately promote carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth. Accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of production and lifestyles, construct a new energy system, fortify ecological security barriers, and strengthen the momentum of green development.
Fifth, increase the intensity of ensuring people's livelihoods and solidly promote common prosperity. Adhere to doing our best while acting within our means; strengthen the construction of inclusive, basic, and "bottom-line" [10] livelihoods; promote high-quality full employment; improve the income distribution system; provide education that satisfies the people; improve the social security system; promote the high-quality development of the real estate market; accelerate the construction of a Healthy China; promote the high-quality development of the population; and steadily advance the equalization of basic public services.
Sixth, coordinate development and security and fortify the national security barrier. Adhere to the holistic approach to national security, improve the national security system, strengthen the construction of national security capabilities in key areas, improve the level of public security governance, refine the social governance system, and build a higher-level "Peaceful China."
The "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" period will be an important historical stage in the process of Chinese-path modernization. Only by adhering to a macro-historical view, grasping historical laws, and planning for the future with a global perspective and a view of the overall situation, can we carry forward the spirit of historical initiative and paint a magnificent chapter of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on the magnificent scroll of our times.