Yang Jianmin: The Current Development Status and Prospects of the Latin American Left
Following the rise to power of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela in 1999, Latin American leftist parties rose one after another, winning successive general elections and setting off a "pink tide." At the 2005 World Social Forum, Hugo Chávez announced the final miscarriage of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) plan proposed by the United States. At one point, the territory of countries governed by Latin American leftist parties reached 71.8% of the region, with a population accounting for 53.8% of the Latin American total. From 2015 to the present, the Latin American political landscape has transitioned rapidly from "the retreat of the left and the advance of the right" to a stage of "alternating advances and retreats between left and right" and "co-governance by left and right." As Brazil is still governed by the right-wing Jair Bolsonaro, the right wing still holds an advantage in the region's political landscape; however, the left took power in Mexico for the first time in 40 years, expanding into a space that even the height of the "pink tide" had failed to reach. The COVID-19 pandemic since 2020 has prompted the Latin American public to reflect on neoliberal policies, favoring the accumulation of strength and expansion of space for the left. However, the Latin American leftist forces currently face serious fragmentation and confront major issues such as strengthening unity and continuing to explore alternatives to neoliberalism after taking office.
I. The Latin American Political Landscape: From "The Retreat of the Left and the Advance of the Right" to "Co-governance by Left and Right"
Even during the vigorous development period of the "pink tide" before 2015, the struggle between the Latin American left and right never ceased; rather, it ran through the entire process of the tide’s rise, development, and decline, and continues to this day. Even at the height of leftist development, the right wing launched constant offensives against the left, resulting in a tug-of-war in several countries. In 2001, traditional right-wing forces in Venezuela launched massive demonstrations against the Chávez government's reform plans, causing social unrest, a sharp decline in oil production, and economic recession. On April 12, 2002, the Venezuelan opposition also instigated a coup, kidnapping Chávez to an island. The United States participated in and promoted the occurrence of the coup; it was only with the support of the Venezuelan Air Force that Chávez returned to the presidential palace three days later to continue his administration. In 2009, the leftist government of José Manuel Zelaya in Honduras sought re-election and promoted a national referendum, but the Supreme Court, influenced by U.S.-promoted judicial reforms, ruled the referendum invalid. Right-wing military personnel supported the Supreme Court's decision, and Zelaya was forced into exile. In 2012, the Paraguayan right wing launched a "parliamentary coup," accusing leftist President Fernando Lugo—who had helped landless peasants acquire land—of mishandling a case involving illegal land occupation by peasants. Lugo was impeached and removed from office, and the right-wing Colorado Party, which had previously ruled for 61 consecutive years, returned to power and remains there today.
With the defeat of the leftist Front for Victory (of the Justicialist Party) in the 2015 Argentine general election and the loss of the leftist ruling party—the United Socialist Party of Venezuela—in parliamentary elections, the Latin American political landscape began to show a trend of "the retreat of the left and the advance of the right." In 2016, President Dilma Rousseff of the Brazilian Workers' Party was impeached and removed from office, and a new cabinet dominated by the center-right was formed. In December 2017, the Chilean leftist alliance lost the election, and the center-right Sebastián Piñera was elected president. By this point, the right wing occupied a dominant position in the Latin American political landscape. In August 2017, the Lima Group—composed of Canada and Latin American countries governed by the right, such as Peru and Brazil—exerted pressure on Venezuela. After Nicolás Maduro was re-elected president of Venezuela in 2018, the United States and the Lima Group refused to recognize the election results and demanded a re-run. Mercosur (the Southern Common Market), dominated by right-wing countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, suspended Venezuela's membership citing the "democratic clause" [1], and the effective date of the resolution was only postponed for three months due to the persistence of Uruguay, then governed by the left. At that time, the five largest economies in Latin America—Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, and Chile—were all under right-wing governance. The political pendulum in Latin America swung rapidly to the right, and Cuba and Venezuela faced unprecedented pressure in the international environment. Jorge Castañeda, former Mexican Secretary of Foreign Affairs, published an article claiming that "the Latin American left is dead."
However, the situation of "the retreat of the left and the advance of the right" in the Latin American political landscape lasted for only three years (2015–2018) before new changes favorable to the left began to occur. The Latin American right wing, which had only risen after 2015, soon encountered new failures; in particular, right-wing presidents such as Sebastián Piñera of Chile, Iván Duque Márquez of Colombia, and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil have been undergoing the trials of social protests and campaign movements. In May 2018, the center-left Carlos Alvarado won the general election in Costa Rica. In July of the same year, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the candidate of the Mexican leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), was elected president. The party leaped to become the largest political party in Mexico, breaking the long-standing political structure dominated by the "three-legged stool" of the left, center, and right (the Party of the Democratic Revolution, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, and the National Action Party). This also marked the first time a leftist party had governed Mexico in 40 years. In October 2019, Alberto Fernández, the candidate of the Argentine leftist Justicialist Party, won the general election, and the left returned to power after a fournd-year hiatus. In October 2020, just one year after former Bolivian President Evo Morales went into exile due to allegations of election manipulation by the Organization of American States (OAS) and others, the "Movement Toward Socialism" (MAS) made a strong return, securing victory in the first round of a "transparent general election." Its candidates, Luis Arce (Minister of Economy and Public Finance during the Morales administration) and David Choquehuanca (former Foreign Minister), were elected President and Vice President respectively. The left resumed governance in Bolivia, and Morales returned from Argentina to continue serving as the chairman of the ruling party. During his tenure as Economy Minister under Morales, Arce had organized the implementation of the country's land distribution and nationalization policies. After taking office on November 8, 2020, Arce promised to make poverty reduction a priority task. In the October 2020 Chilean national referendum, 78% of the public voted in favor of amending the Pinochet-era constitution to include provisions for health guarantees, educational improvement, and the promotion of equality. In December 2020, the Venezuelan leftist ruling party also won more than a two-thirds majority in parliamentary elections, while the opposition was in a state of collapse. All these indicators suggest that the strength of the left is further resurgent and growing.
II. The COVID-19 Pandemic Favors the Continued Expansion of Leftist Forces
First, the continued spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America in 2021 exacerbated public concerns over issues such as economic recession, poverty, corruption, insecurity, and the lack of job opportunities. Latin American governments not only failed to respond effectively to these issues, but right-wing policies—including the reduction of expenditures in the health sector—revealed their full negative effects against the backdrop of the pandemic, intensifying social inequality. Meanwhile, hit by the pandemic, Latin American countries saw a sharp decrease in fiscal and tax revenues and faced risks of significant inflation, yet they still had to implement proactive fiscal policies. This resulted in a dual rise in public and external debt; the ratio of public debt rose from 57% in 2019 to 67% in 2020, with Brazil, Argentina, and El Salvador reaching as high as 101.4%, 96.7%, and 89% respectively. In May 2020, Argentina experienced its ninth sovereign debt default in history. Risks of a debt crisis are accumulating and may be released in a concentrated manner over the next two years. Under these circumstances, for the Latin American economy to achieve restorative growth in the post-pandemic era, large-scale vaccination must be realized. However, as of May 2021, Latin American countries had not yet developed any vaccine, and vaccines remained a scarce commodity. Therefore, how to obtain vaccines and achieve their equitable distribution has become an important task currently facing Latin American countries. Due to inadequate medical infrastructure, governments in many countries mobilized the armed forces to ensure vaccine delivery. Every country in the region sought deals with pharmaceutical developers to obtain vaccine allocations and joined the "COVAX" facility created by the World Health Organization (a program that attempts to provide sufficient doses for 20% of the global population, with 190 countries currently participating). According to data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the number of people living in poverty and extreme poverty in Latin American countries increased by 45.4 million and 28.5 million respectively in 2020, with the total number of people in poverty reaching 231 million, or 37.7% of the total population.
Second, in the coming two years, many Latin American countries will hold elections, and the left may continue to expand its space. The 2020 pandemic intensified this trend; the Latin American public began to reflect on the various drawbacks of right-wing neoliberalism and once again sought a role for the government and society in economic development and distribution. This favors the development and further expansion of leftist forces. In 2021, several countries in the Latin American region, such as Ecuador (February), Peru (April), and Chile (November), held general elections; in 2022, Colombia, Brazil, and Venezuela will hold general elections. Given the performance of President Bolsonaro of Brazil, President Duque of Colombia, and President Piñera of Chile before and after the pandemic, it is expected that they will have difficulty continuing to run for president or winning the general elections, which objectively creates conditions for the development of the left in these countries.
In Ecuador, the first round of the presidential election was held on February 7, 2021. Andrés Arauz, the candidate of the leftist "Union for Hope," received 32.7% of the vote, while Guillermo Lasso, the candidate of the conservative "Creating Opportunities" (CREO) movement, received 19.7%, ranking second. Yaku Pérez, the candidate of the radical leftist indigenous organization Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement, and Xavier Hervas, the candidate of the Democratic Left party, ranked third and fourth respectively, both receiving over 15% of the vote. In the second round of elections held on April 11, 2021, Lasso ultimately achieved a reversal and was elected president with a lead of 5.08% of the vote. It is worth noting that among the top four candidates in the first round of Ecuador's presidential election, three were from the left, yet in the end, it was the right-wing Lasso who achieved a reversal to be elected president.
In Brazil, on March 8, 2021, Federal Supreme Court Justice Edson Fachin determined that the 13th Federal Court of Curitiba, which had rendered a verdict in the corruption case against former President Lula da Silva in 2018, lacked jurisdiction and that the case should be transferred to a court in Brasília. In mid-April, the Supreme Court voted to uphold Fachin's ruling. As a result, Lula's political rights were restored, allowing him to participate in the October 2022...
Presidential election. While the Brazilian left has no shortage of outstanding young candidates, Lula’s political legacy is irreplaceable; his personal charisma, capacity for political integration, and pragmatic policies remain a powerful draw. Under the shadow of the dismal economic conditions and the uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic during the current Bolsonaro administration, Lula’s candidacy more easily evokes voters' memories of the economic prosperity during his tenure. This is clearly conducive to the Workers’ Party and the entire Brazilian left staging a comeback and regaining the seat of government.
In Peru, the left achieved a historic victory in the presidential election. On April 11, 2021, presidential and congressional elections were held, in which the presidential contest produced a major upset. Pedro Castillo—a 52-year-old primary school teacher, one of the leaders of the teacher’s union, and candidate for the leftist Free Peru party, who had trailed in initial polls—and Keiko Fujimori, candidate for the right-wing Popular Force party, placed in the top two spots with 18.92% and 13.25% of the vote respectively, entering the second round held on June 6. Hernando de Soto, a renowned economist and candidate for the right-wing Go on Country party, received 11.9%. Verónika Mendoza, who was highly favored and had been re-nominated as the presidential candidate for the leftist "Together for Peru" coalition amidst a severe institutional crisis, failed to advance in the first round. In the second round on June 6, Castillo ultimately defeated Fujimori by a margin of 0.25% to be elected president.
In Chile, elections for the Constitutional Convention and local offices were held in May 2021. In the election of delegates to the Constitutional Convention, the right-wing governing coalition "Let's Go Chile" won only 38 out of 155 seats (21%); independents won 54 seats (34.97%); "Approve Dignity" took 18.04%; "The List of the People" took 15.1%; and 17 seats were reserved for indigenous peoples. In local elections, the Chilean Communist Irací Hassler was elected mayor of Santiago, the capital; this marks the first time in history a member of the Communist Party of Chile has been elected mayor of the capital city. Chile will hold a general election in November 2021, while simultaneously ratifying the new constitution drafted by the Convention and electing a new Congress. Since the massive popular protests of 2019, Chile’s market-oriented economic model since the Pinochet era has been challenged, with the public demanding a larger role for the state in guaranteeing health, education, and pensions. As President Piñera from the right cannot run for re-election, leftist forces enjoy an advantage in the general election. The results of this election will be critical for Chile's policy direction.
In Mexico, the leftist president Andrés Manuel López Obrador still maintains a high approval rating. Seven out of 32 governors belong to the governing party, and the governing party holds a majority in 19 state legislatures—the majority needed to amend the federal constitution. In the mid-term elections held on June 6, 2021, although the governing party, Morena (National Regeneration Movement), lost its two-thirds supermajority, it still retains a majority in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. It can pass legislation by aligning with some small parties without needing support from major opposition parties such as the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), PAN (National Action Party), or PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution); the governing environment thus remains favorable.
Third, the 2020 U.S. election was also a major event influencing the political landscape of Latin America. Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump weakened the international environment of "maximum pressure" exerted by the Trump administration against leftist regimes, which is conducive to the Latin American political pendulum swinging back to the left [2].
III. Left-wing Parties Have Strengthened International Solidarity and Coordination, but Face Severe Domestic Fragmentation
After more than a decade of governing, participating in government, and electioneering, the Latin American left has moved from united struggle toward gradual fragmentation. Facing offensives from domestic and international right-wing forces, leftist parties must unite as they did before to meet these challenges. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, both the world socialist movement and the Latin American leftist movement fell into a low ebb. However, Latin American leftist parties, including Communist parties, successively launched the São Paulo Forum and the World Social Forum, criticizing capitalism and neoliberalism, exploring alternatives to the neoliberal development model, and pointing out that "another world is possible." This allowed the Latin American movement to quickly emerge from the shadows of the Soviet collapse and the changes in Eastern Europe. Supporting one another, they won successive elections, sparking a magnificent "Pink Tide." Regarding domestic policy, the left advocated for the role of the state and even nationalization; externally, they opposed U.S. hegemony and its proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), advocating instead for regional integration. They established a series of regional integration organizations such as the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), which includes all Latin American nations while excluding the United States and Canada. The leftist governing cycle greatly advanced the process of Latin American solidarity and self-reliance, and promoted relations between Latin America and Asia and Africa.
Internationally, in the face of new situations regarding right-wing offensives and coalitions, leftist unity and coordination have made new progress. The electoral observation of the Organization of American States (OAS) has consistently been a primary means for the right to accuse leftist parties and candidates in the name of democracy. In the October 2019 Bolivian elections, the OAS alleged fraud by the governing Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Amidst a massive wave of domestic protests and the defection of the military and police to the right, President Morales, who had already declared victory, was forced to resign and go into exile. After the inauguration of the new leftist president Luis Arce in November 2020, Bolivia restored diplomatic relations with Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela—which had been severed by the interim right-wing government of Jeanine Áñez—and called on the OAS to correct its errors and re-audit the 2019 Bolivian elections. MAS is one of the most active parties in the Puebla Group. This organization is a regional leftist coordination body reorganized by leftist parties from 14 Latin American countries; it has established a specialized electoral observation department, hoping to counter and replace the function of the OAS in this regard. One of the first tasks for Arce and MAS after taking power was to provide financial and ideological support to the Puebla Group, supporting leftist parties in the 2021 elections in Chile, Ecuador, and Peru. If the left wins the November 2021 Chilean general election, Bolivia expects to renew relations between the two countries.
At the behest of the United States, the right-wing Lima Group has continuously intensified its interference in Venezuela’s leftist regime, demanding that Venezuela release political prisoners and "hold fair elections and restore constitutional order." In August 2017, Mercosur suspended Venezuela's membership, claiming it had violated the organization’s democratic commitment clause. It was only at the request of Uruguay's then-governing party, the Broad Front, that the decision to suspend Venezuela was delayed by three months. The left’s rise to power in Mexico in 2018 changed its attitude toward the Maduro administration, causing the Lima Group—the key international pillar for the containment of Venezuela—to lose a crucial support. In October 2019, the victory of Alberto Fernández, the candidate of the leftist Justicialist Party in Argentina's general election, created a counterweight to Brazil within Mercosur. In March 2021, the Argentine government announced its withdrawal from the Lima Group. In July 2021, after the election of the leftist Castillo in Peru, the new Foreign Minister Héctor Béjar Rivera announced a change in position on Venezuela to promote the development of bilateral relations. This may signify the formal dissolution of the Lima Group.
Meanwhile, Latin American leftist forces are severely fragmented within their respective countries.
First, new leftist forces have emerged or risen, yet they have become competitors to the traditional left. In Chile, the student movement that arose in 2011 to protest high higher education costs led to the formation of a New Left. Its most famous leader, Camila Vallejo, was absorbed into the leftist "New Majority" coalition in 2014, but two other major student leaders, Giorgio Jackson and Gabriel Boric, not only remained outside the broad leftist coalition but also existed as opposition, with Jackson’s Democratic Revolution party and other student movement organizations. In the 2017 general election, the Broad Front continued to consolidate relations with extra-parliamentary leftist movements and parties, achieving a decisive victory in Valparaíso by absorbing the Autonomous Movement led by former student leader Jorge Sharp. Sharp won 53.8% of the vote in that city, while the "New Majority" and the right-wing coalition won only 22.4% and 22.6% respectively. However, at the national level, the leftist majority coalitions failed to unite, leading to defeat in the December 2017 general election.
In the 2021 Ecuadorian general election, Yaku Pérez, candidate for the indigenous Pachakutik Multiethnic Unity Movement, emerged as a dark horse. He won 19.4% of the vote in the first round, and his party’s seats increased from 4 to 27, though he fell into third place by a slim margin of 0.25 percentage points and failed to enter the second round. However, due to policy differences with Rafael Correa over environmental protection and other issues, he supported neither the right-wing candidate—banker Guillermo Lasso of the CREO (Creating Opportunities) and Social Christian Party—nor Correa’s protégé, Andrés Arauz of the leftist UNES (Union for Hope) in the 2021 runoff. He even called on voters to spoil their ballots or cast null votes. In five provinces, the number of spoiled ballots even exceeded the votes Arauz received; this was a major reason why Arauz, despite a large lead in the first round, was overtaken by Lasso in the second.
Second, in the face of a grim governance situation, the left is divided over policy responses. In Ecuador, Lenín Moreno, known as Rafael Correa’s successor, underwent a massive change in style after taking office, shifting toward more market-oriented economic policies. While a leftist party continued to govern, the policy took a right turn. The governing PAIS Alliance even split over whether to support Correa; Vice President Jorge Glas, a Correa supporter, was removed from office and placed in preventive detention on corruption charges. In the 2021 general election, the governing PAIS Alliance lost all 74 of its congressional seats, failing to secure a single one.
Third, political fragmentation and ideological polarization have intensified. In the 2021 Peruvian election, the candidate with the highest vote share received only 16%. The governing party and the traditional left party "Together for Peru" won only 42 out of 130 seats, becoming a weakness for leftist governance. In the Ecuadorian parliament, as many as 15 parties hold seats, and the Union for Hope, which holds the most seats, has only 49. In recent years, especially since the pandemic, ideological polarization in Latin American countries has intensified, with the appearance of both the far-right and the far-left. The former is represented by Bolsonaro in Brazil, while the latter—such as Castillo in Peru and Yaku in Ecuador—has, on one hand, expanded the leftist camp, but on the other hand, their radical policy proposals have formed new challenges for the solidarity and strengthening of the Latin American left.
IV. Whether a New Leftist Governing Cycle Can Begin Remains to be Seen, but the Left Will Persist in Latin America over the Long Term
In the coming years, the Latin American left will undergo a pivotal moment; it must prove its capacity to serve as a social engine. Whether a new leftist cycle can be inaugurated will depend, at minimum, on several factors.
First, in addition to quelling public dissatisfaction regarding the functioning of the state and demands for political innovation, the Latin American left must forge a new social consensus through political revitalization, as well as restore and improve the living conditions of the people. Second, the new left must demonstrate sufficient political management capabilities to secure institutional spaces of power while simultaneously maintaining connections with social movements to garner the momentum necessary to win elections. In particular, whether leftist leaders can respond to the pandemic with efficiency and transparency will be of great significance in enhancing public trust in the government. Third, it is crucial whether the Latin American left, upon taking power, can correctly define the role of the state and complete the exploration of a new development model. In the governing cycle that has just passed, although the left gained high prestige among the populace, it did not attach sufficient importance to the shaping of the state—especially lacking necessary reforms in the armed forces, police, and judiciary. Far from achieving the goal of replacing neoliberalism, they instead fell into governance predicaments and ultimately lost political power. Now, as a second cycle may be about to begin, we shall wait and see what new strategies leftist forces will adopt to effectively redefine the presence of the state.
Following the "Pink Tide" [9] of the early 21st century, a series of significant trend-level changes have emerged in Latin American politics, providing the conditions for the long-term presence and development of the left. Currently, the leftist regimes existing in various countries can still contend as equals with the right. In 2021, the Peruvian left achieved a historic victory; the Bolivian left will govern until 2025; the Venezuelan and Mexican left will both govern until 2024; and the Argentine left will govern until 2023. At the same time, the left in Nicaragua and Chile may still win their 2021 elections. The left remains a political force that cannot be ignored in the Latin American political landscape. The foundation for its resilient existence and development persists, manifested primarily in the following aspects:
First, countries in the Latin American region are continuously carrying out reforms in political, economic, and diplomatic spheres. Under the premise of enhancing the legitimacy of the political system and consolidating democracy, they are addressing issues left behind by neoliberal policies, such as the social polarization between rich and poor and economic stagflation. While developing the economy, they focus on resolving political and social issues, striving to seek a more just, reasonable, and sustainable mode of development and enhancing the degree of political inclusion and integration. The achievements resulting from these efforts will lay the foundation for the next round of the modernization process in Latin American countries.
Second, changes in the political environment and institutional conditions have accelerated the evolution of Latin American political parties and party systems, which are continuously adapting to the new political demands brought about by democratic consolidation. Party politics is nurturing a greater and higher degree of modernity. Through reforms in guiding ideologies, organizational methods, and mobilization techniques, leftist parties are actively responding to the trends of mass politics and grassroots politics, demonstrating new characteristics in their governing styles and capabilities.
Third, with economic growth and the deepening of democratic systems, the social foundation of the political systems in Latin American countries is continuously expanding, and the degree of political integration has reached an unprecedented level. Countries in the region are paying increasing attention to the social and political rights of the lower classes, their political participation, and their role in the formation of political, economic, and social policies. At the same time, the growing middle class and its political demands are posing new challenges to traditional political systems.
Furthermore, the long-standing wealth disparity and inequality in Latin American countries provide a supportive foundation for the existence of the Latin American left. Following the implementation of neoliberalism in the 1990s, the proportion of the impoverished population in the Latin American region was as high as nearly 50%. Even today, following the "Pink Tide," it remains above 30%. Under democratic political conditions, this segment of the population will support a left that advocates for social equality—a situation that will persist in Latin America for a long time.
In summary, the existence and development of leftist political forces in Latin American countries have political, economic, social, and even demographic foundations. Leftist and socialist trends of thought that advocate for social equality have broad space for existence. This is also the important reason why the Latin American left has maintained resilient development for over 100 years.
(Notes omitted)
(Author's units: Institute of Latin American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Research Office of Marxist Theory and Latin American Politics, Institute of Latin American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Online Editor: Zhang Jian Source: World Socialism Studies, Issue 9, 2021