Zhang Junrong: Can the Latin American Left Maintain Its Strong Momentum in 2022?
For Latin America, the just-concluded year of 2021 was a year filled with hesitation and helplessness, yet also a year of harboring hope and pursuing transformation. During this year, the left-wing movements that had been suppressed during the period of right-wing governance rose once again, with left-wing parties in many Latin American countries assuming power with a strong mandate. Entering 2022, the Latin American region will hold two general elections—in Colombia and Brazil—that directly bear upon the region’s political trajectory. Against the broad backdrop of the interlaced effects of the pandemic and economic-political dilemmas, it is worth watching whether Latin American countries can sustain the "looking left" trend in these elections.
Multiple Latin American Countries "Look Left" Desiring to Shake Off U.S. Influence
In October 2020, Luis Arce—the presidential candidate for Bolivia's Movement for Socialism (MAS) and former Minister of Economy—won the general election, marking the reclamation of political power by the Left and raising the curtain on the left-wing resurgence in Latin America.
Last year, the contradictions between the Latin American Left and Right further intensified, and the means by which the latter defended its influence became increasingly radical. In June, Pedro Castillo, the presidential candidate for Peru’s socialist Free Peru party, won the general election, achieving a historic moment of left-wing reclamation of power. Subsequently, the Nicaraguan general election held on November 7 even drew direct interference from the Biden administration, which utilized the Organization of American States (OAS) to negate the "democratic legitimacy" of the election results; in response, Nicaragua chose to withdraw directly from the organization. Following this, on December 19, Gabriel Boric, the 35-year-old presidential candidate for Chile’s left-wing coalition, successfully staged a comeback in the second round of voting to defeat the far-right candidate José Antonio Kast, realizing the first return of the Left in Chile since the Pinochet military government. Thus, alongside countries like Mexico and Argentina where left-wing parties had previously reclaimed power, the left-wing forces of major Latin American nations have achieved a collective return.
Another prominent feature of "looking left" is reflected in the attitudes of Latin American countries toward the United States. During the period of strong right-wing governance, the originally flourishing left-wing movement entered a low ebb. The São Paulo Forum, the annual meeting where left-wing parties gather, produced few results, while sub-regional organizations composed of right-wing parties, such as Prosur and the Lima Group, began to emerge. The latter maintained high-frequency linkage and close cooperation with the United States on regional issues such as Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. Individual left-wing countries like Mexico and Argentina were unable to play an effective role and had no choice but to "leave the groups to clarify their positions" [1].
Amidst the left-wing resurgence, interactions among various countries to resist U.S. influence and safeguard regional sovereignty and independence have begun to increase. In particular, the Mexican left-wing President López Obrador, who had been consistently low-profile since taking office, spoke out in support of the Latin American Left on issues such as the anti-government protests in Cuba and the forced extradition of a Venezuelan diplomat by the United States, criticizing America's crude interference. This is both an expression of Mexico's ambition as a major power in the New Left era of Latin America and a manifestation of the shift in regional trends. Peru, a founder of the Lima Group, also announced its withdrawal from the organization after the Castillo government took office, no longer serving as a pawn or "convener of meetings" for the United States.
The Brazilian Election Will Strike the "Final Note" of the Political Trend
However, the reason we say "looking left" rather than "turning left" is that left-wing governance is not yet a settled political reality in Latin America. The current left-wing resurgence occurring in Latin America possesses distinct differences from the previous "Pink Tide" (the phenomenon since the late 20th century where multiple Latin American countries were governed by left-wing parties), mainly reflected in two aspects: the helplessness of the masses and the hidden anxieties of governance.
On one hand, the choice of the Left by the masses in general elections is driven more by dissatisfaction with right-wing governments and the resulting desire for change. In other words, the masses do not hold sufficient confidence in the Left either; if the Left truly wishes to gain a firm foothold in this round of the "pendulum effect," [2] it likewise faces a severe test. On the other hand, what the Left has inherited from previous governments are mostly "shambolic messes" plagued by internal and external difficulties: the increasingly severe debt crisis in Argentina, the continuing fallout of the riots in Chile, and so on. The task facing the Latin American Left is not only to lead their countries out of economic, health, and social governance dilemmas, but also to face the endless checks, balances, and counterattacks from political opponents.
Furthermore, in recent years, the institutional flaws of the domestic political and economic systems of Latin American countries have become increasingly apparent. At the economic level, primary product exporters like Brazil and Argentina, which mainly rely on international commodity trade markets, suffer from defects in their productive structures, while Chile, which admires neoliberal economic systems, suffers from a sustained imbalance in its distribution system. At the political level, several shocks of populism have strengthened the trend of political "de-elitization," the vortex of political struggle has become increasingly turbulent, and political crisis has gradually become a social norm.
Therefore, how Latin American countries can escape from sluggish economic growth and how to stabilize social morale on the basis of effectively controlling the pandemic both require the Left to invigorate its spirit beyond the joy of the return tide, to leap out of the strange cycle of inter-party struggle and the old path of "high welfare in exchange for votes," and to explore an effective path of reform.
This year, the Latin American region will also hold two elections directly related to the regional political trajectory: one is the March election in Colombia, a hardcore ally of the United States; if the left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro can be elected, it will directly affect the U.S. strategic layout in Latin America and loosen the deepest "nail" the U.S. has driven into the South American continent. The other is the Brazilian election at the end of this year, where the left-wing leader Lula is making a strong return. His final battle with the representative of the far-right, current President Bolsonaro, will strike the "final note" [3] for the region's political direction and will profoundly affect Latin America's positioning in the international community for years to come.