Li Hong: The Leftward Shift of Party Politics in Northern Europe and Its Prospects
In September 2021, the Norwegian Labour Party became the largest party in the national parliamentary elections, leading a center-left coalition to victory by a significant margin. This election ended eight consecutive years of governance by a center-right coalition led by the Conservative Party, making Norway the fourth country in the Nordic region—following Sweden, Finland, and Denmark—to be governed by center-left parties. Against the backdrop of the rapid growth of populist parties across Europe and the widespread "populization" of European society, the four Nordic countries have collectively "turned left." This round of center-left parties taking power has benefited from changes in the international environment and internal conditions within Nordic countries; their return to power is accompanied by new characteristics of the era while facing new challenges under the new situation.
The Collective "Left Turn" of the Four Nordic Countries
The Nordic region was once the "bastion of European social democracy." The Swedish Social Democratic Party once set a record of 44 consecutive years in power; the Danish Social Democratic Party remained the largest party in parliament for over 70 years; the Norwegian Labour Party has governed for a cumulative total of 50 years since the end of World War II; and the Social Democratic Party of Finland has been a major governing party since 1966. The long-term governance of center-left parties in Nordic countries established and perfected the welfare state system, making the Nordic countries' happiness indices among the highest in the world. This represented the fundamental ideals upheld by European social democratic parties and their highest materialized achievements.
However, the situation changed at the beginning of the 21st century. Under the impact of the wave of economic globalization, compounded by factors such as the global financial crisis, terrorist attacks, and the refugee crisis, the party political landscape of Nordic countries underwent a major transformation. The Social Democratic and Labour parties, which had governed for long periods, suffered successive defeats in parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, right-wing populist forces grew steadily. Right-wing populist parties such as the Sweden Democrats, the Danish People’s Party, the Progress Party (Norway), and the Finns Party [1] saw their support rates soar in a short period, becoming major parliamentary parties or even participating in government, playing significant roles in national politics. In the context of a general rightward shift in the political environment, the Social Democratic and Labour parties of the Nordic countries became opposition parties one after another and struggled to return to power for a long time. The predicament of these center-left parties led some scholars to hold pessimistic views of their fate, believing that even in the Nordic region—with its long history of governance and deep social foundations—center-left parties could not adapt to the new changes and situations of the 21st century, were no longer capable of playing a role in national politics, and would find it difficult to make a comeback.
But in recent years, just as the populization of European society has become prevalent, center-left parties in Nordic countries have successively won general elections and become governing parties once again, resulting in a "resurgence" of the left. The first turn of the tide occurred in Sweden. In the 2014 parliamentary elections, the Swedish Social Democratic Party won 113 of the 349 seats with 31.01% of the vote, the Green Party won 25 seats with 6.89%, and the Left Party won 21 seats with 5.72% of the vote. The center-left "Red-Green" bloc [2] led by the Social Democrats ended the rule of the center-right parties—then composed of the Moderate Party, the Christian Democrats, the Liberals (then the People's Party), and the Centre Party. The Social Democratic Party became the governing party again after an eight-year hiatus, and its chairman, Stefan Löfven, became Prime Minister. Four years later, in the 2018 Swedish elections, the Social Democratic Party again became the largest party with 28.26% of the vote, and in January 2019, it formed a minority coalition government with the Green Party (Environment Party) to continue governing. In April 2019, the Social Democratic Party of Finland became the largest party with 17.7% of the vote and formed a five-party coalition government with the Centre Party, the Green League, the Left Alliance, and the Swedish People's Party of Finland. This ended the coalition governance of the center-right parties—the Finnish Centre Party, the Finns Party, and the National Coalition Party—marking the comeback of the Finnish Social Democrats after losing their status as the largest parliamentary party in 1999. In June 2019, the Danish Social Democratic Party, led by Mette Frederiksen, became the largest party with 25.9% of the vote and 48 seats, forming a center-left government with three other left-wing parties: the Socialist People's Party, the Social Liberal Party, and the Red-Green Alliance. In September 2021, the Norwegian Labour Party became the largest party with 26.4% of the vote and 48 seats, while its rival, the center-right Conservative Party, received only 20.4%. The center-left alliance formed by the Labour Party and its partners—the Centre Party and the Socialist Left Party—won a total of 89 out of 169 seats. Thus, following Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, Norway also became a country governed by a center-left coalition led by the Labour Party.
Why Center-Left Parties Won the Elections
The center-left parties of the four Nordic countries have won elections and returned to the governing stage in recent years primarily due to the following reasons.
First, the negative impacts of globalization have become prominent, and the "political pendulum effect" has begun to emerge. The neoliberal economic globalization oriented toward markets and efficiency, which began in the 1990s, optimized resource allocation, improved production efficiency, and accelerated global economic growth, but also produced many negative consequences. It intensified competition between nations and financial speculation, increased economic risks, and caused varying degrees of shock and damage to the economy, society, and environment of various countries. Specifically in the Nordic region, economic globalization increased the intensity of economic competition between nations, slowed the rate of wage growth and improvements in living standards, and widened the gap between rich and poor. The arrival of massive numbers of immigrants led to a decrease in social homogeneity, causing opposition and even division between people of different ages, professions, and identities, undermining social solidarity and reducing national cohesion. Negative consequences such as environmental destruction, caused by capitalist production and consumption models oriented toward profit maximization, continued to accumulate. All these factors objectively gathered increasing momentum for the return of center-left parties, which uphold the ideals of equality and justice and advocate for increased government regulation. Therefore, from the perspective of the political pendulum effect, it was only a matter of time before the party politics of Nordic countries—with their deep social democratic foundations and traditions—turned from right to left.
Second, the policies of center-left parties have "returned to their roots," absorbing and catering to the needs of both left-wing and right-wing voters. Recent elections in Nordic countries have focused on different themes than previous ones. Past elections mostly centered on economic issues; a typical example was the 2015 Finnish election, where the Centre Party won primarily because voters hoped its leader, Juha Sipilä, a businessman by background, could use "extraordinary measures" to reverse the country's economic downturn. However, in the most recent elections, the ranking of economic issues has dropped, while the welfare state, refugee policy, and climate change have become the focus of greatest concern for voters. To this end, center-left parties have adjusted their policies to win over more voters.
A strong return to welfare state policies. The welfare state system is the concretization of the ideals of freedom, equality, mutual aid, and solidarity upheld by Nordic center-left parties. It has played an important role in narrowing social gaps, easing class contradictions, and maintaining sustainable economic and social development. However, since the 1990s, the welfare state system—which was originally a solution—developed its own problems. Under the background of the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and overall economic recession, the center-right governments that took power mostly implemented fiscal austerity policies. They took measures such as cutting welfare funding and programs, reducing unemployment and sickness benefits, and lowering wages, which further intensified social inequality. Center-left parties argued that the policies of the center-right, guided by the neoliberal concept that "hungry wolves hunt best" [3], not only increased public insecurity but also hindered the active participation of the labor force in the market, ultimately harming national economic development. Center-left parties advocate that welfare is inseparable from individual freedom; providing universal welfare to everyone can promote individual freedom, thereby better stimulating individual initiative and creativity. To reverse the weakening and destruction of the welfare state system during the rule of center-right parties, center-left parties have made a strong return to welfare state policies. For instance, the Swedish Social Democratic Party emphasized building a "reliable welfare system" in its campaign platform, the Danish Social Democratic Party spoke of building a "stronger welfare society," and the Norwegian Labour Party committed to achieving "a fairer society."
Absorbing and adopting the center-right's policies of strictly controlling refugees. Historically, because center-left parties were in power for long periods and held humanitarian values, Nordic countries frequently accepted war refugees. However, the refugee wave triggered by the Syrian Civil War in 2015 was unlike anything before; its scale and numbers were overwhelming for European countries. Statistics show that around 1 million refugees/migrants from the Middle East and North Africa entered Europe in 2015, with Sweden alone receiving nearly 150,000. The influx of refugees caused a series of problems such as security, community integration, cultural and religious clashes, changes in social customs, and national identity issues; it also pushed up crime rates, sparking strong public dissatisfaction and leading to the ousting of center-left governments that held tolerant attitudes toward refugees. Right-wing populist parties—the Sweden Democrats, the Danish People's Party, the Progress Party, and the Finns Party—catered to public opinion by advocating for the priority of national interests. They called for strict refugee controls, ending non-European immigration, and increasing the intensity of refugee deportations, thereby raising their support. Under the pressure of general xenophobia in the Nordic region, center-left parties significantly adjusted their policy positions on the refugee issue, shifting from tolerance to a hardline stance. In November 2015, the Swedish Social Democratic government introduced a strict border control system, requiring identity checks for everyone crossing the Sweden-Denmark border and proposing to close the Øresund Bridge connecting the two countries. The Danish Social Democratic Party, while in opposition, supported the right-wing governing coalition in parliament to pass a highly restrictive immigration law known as "the toughest in Europe," and openly declared in its campaign that it would implement an "immigration policy based on common sense rather than sympathy." The significant rightward shift of center-left parties on the refugee issue allowed for the continuation of strict controls from the center-right era, thereby attracting voters who previously supported right-wing parties.
Attaching high importance to the issue of climate change. In recent years, as the greenhouse effect has accumulated and global warming has accelerated, glaciers and permafrost have melted and extreme weather has occurred frequently. Since most Nordic countries are located in high-latitude regions—with some having a third of their territory within the Arctic Circle—the melting of glaciers caused by warming is not just a trendy topic of conversation but a real threat to the survival of these nations. The 2021 Norwegian election coincided with extreme heat, wildfires, and floods hitting many European countries; the disastrous scenes caused by extreme weather were shocking. Many Norwegians who once felt climate change was distant now believe its catastrophic consequences are imminent; some observers even called this Norwegian election the "Climate Election." Center-left parties have paid high attention to climate change, emphasizing its urgency, severity, and the necessity of action. However, unlike the Green and Environment parties, which advocate for radical measures to control warming, the Social Democratic and Labour parties prefer gradual measures. Jonas Gahr Støre, chairman of the Norwegian Labour Party, stated that more balanced economic burden-sharing would help reduce the difficulty of implementing stricter climate policies, complying with the Paris Agreement, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and gradually reducing the Norwegian economy's dependence on fossil fuels. The attention paid by Social Democratic and Labour parties to climate change, along with their relatively pragmatic response plans, addressed the concerns of the public—especially young people—and won voter support. Therefore, in a sense, one could say the frequent climate disasters in Europe were one of the factors propelling center-left parties to victory.
Third, the fragmentation of the party landscape and the relative disadvantage of center-right parties. Nordic countries implement multi-party systems, characterized by many parties in small countries, high voter turnout but dispersed votes, and a continuous decline in the vote share of major parties.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the rise of populist forces across various nations, right-wing populist parties have entered their respective national parliaments one after another. This has led to a continuous increase in the number of political parties and a further deepening of the fragmentation of the party landscape. Overall, the number of parties entering parliament in the four Nordic countries has remained above seven in each case. This proliferation of parties has resulted in a dispersal of votes and a continuous decline in the vote share of major parties. Taking the Swedish Social Democratic Party as an example, in the 2002 election, it won 144 seats with 39.9% of the vote; in 2006, it won 130 seats with 35.3%; in 2010, 112 seats with 30.6%; in 2014, 113 seats with 31.01%; and in 2018, it secured only 100 seats with 28.26% of the vote, yet it remained the largest party in parliament.
In the general elections of recent years, the former center-right governing parties were "punished" by voters for various reasons and found themselves at a relative disadvantage. In Finland, Juha Sipilä, leader of the Centre Party and once viewed as an economic savior, triggered public discontent by strictly enforcing fiscal austerity policies. His administration faced repeated boycotts from labor unions, and his healthcare and social security reforms failed to achieve their expected results. In Denmark, the right-wing populist Danish People’s Party saw its vote share plummet due to its hardline stance and extreme conservative propositions on refugees and education issues; weighed down by this, the Danish Liberal Party, which belongs to the same "Blue Camp" [4], lost its governing status. Furthermore, the strong concern for climate issues among voters in various countries actually implies dissatisfaction with the neoliberal market- and efficiency-oriented economic and social policies pursued by center-right parties. All the factors mentioned above are important reasons driving the collective "Left turn" of party politics in Nordic countries.
A Leftward Shift with Populist Imprints
Following the Norwegian Labour Party’s victory in the parliamentary elections, and given the continuous governance of the Swedish Social Democratic Party alongside the return to power of Social Democratic parties in Finland and Denmark, the party politics of the Nordic countries have once again shifted toward the Left. Judging from the change in the balance of power between Left and Right, the shift in the priority of political issues, and the adjustment of policy propositions, a "Leftward shift" is now the defining political characteristic of contemporary Nordic nations. However, considering the continuation of strict refugee control policies, the shift in the guiding philosophy of immigrant integration, and the redefinition of the welfare state, the Leftward shift of these four Nordic countries essentially bears the imprint of populism.
After the center-left parties in various Nordic countries returned to power, they made adjustments in domestic and foreign affairs that returned to Leftist traditions: in the economic sphere, they ended the fiscal austerity policies strictly enforced by center-right parties for many years, implementing relatively moderate economic policies, reducing personal income tax, and increasing tax rates on tobacco, alcohol, and fuel; in the social sphere, they are rebuilding a stronger welfare state to enhance comprehensive social security during the COVID-19 prevention and control period; they continue to oppose uncontrolled neoliberal globalization; they oppose the nationalism and populism advocated by right-wing parties; regarding their stance on the European Union, they emphasize that the EU plays an important role in common foreign and security policy as well as ecological and social sustainability, supporting a stronger EU to respond to the impact of the pandemic, which has partially reversed the anti-European and Euro-skeptic tendencies incited by right-wing populist parties; and in diplomacy, they are committed to maintaining and strengthening rules-based multilateral cooperation.
At the same time, however, one should also see the absorption and inheritance of the propositions and policies of right-wing populist parties by the center-left parties of Nordic countries. First, regarding refugee admission, center-left parties have fully inherited the center-right's policies of strict control, causing refugees seeking asylum to be deterred and their numbers to continuously decrease. Second, center-left parties have changed their philosophy on the issue of refugee integration, taking the promotion of national integration as a governing goal. To this end, they have adjusted the long-standing integration policy guided by multiculturalism—typically maintained by the mainstream Left—and have absorbed the integration propositions centered on "Leitkultur" [5] (lead culture) advocated by right-wing populist parties. On the one hand, center-left parties have raised the threshold for incremental immigration, increasing requirements for language proficiency, education level, vocational skills, and knowledge of the host country for immigrants entering Nordic countries under the guise of family reunification. On the other hand, by increasing financial investment in public and private primary and secondary schools as well as various adult education programs, they aim to improve the language abilities of already accepted immigrant families, provide training and internships to push immigrants into the labor market, and enhance immigrants’ identification with the host country's cultural values, thereby reversing various negative impacts generated by multiculturalist policies. Third, center-left parties emphasize that welfare recipients should bear responsibilities. The premise for establishing the Nordic welfare state system was overall homogeneity. Homogeneity "is regarded as a prerequisite for the development of the unique Nordic welfare state, and a prerequisite for it to obtain sustained support and legitimacy." After taking office, the center-left parties placed welfare at the top of their national political agendas, promising to increase financial investment and welfare projects while expanding coverage. However, center-left parties also place greater emphasis on the necessity of education, lifelong learning, and employment, promising to formulate action plans to force adult female refugees with low education and no vocational skills into the labor market to ensure their contributions align with social expectations. In the view of center-left parties, the welfare system remains universal, but immigrants who enjoy welfare also have the responsibility and obligation to accept the host country's mainstream values.
The Governing Prospects of Center-Left Parties
In a relatively favorable political environment, the center-left parties of the four Nordic nations achieved electoral reversals and followed one another back into power, causing the region to exhibit a Leftward trend. However, looking at the current situation, the governing prospects of center-left parties still face many challenges and tests.
First, the leading Social Democratic and Labour parties within the center-left camp have low vote shares, and their governing foundations are weak. In the most recent general elections, the vote shares of the major Nordic center-left parties—the Social Democrats and the Labour Party—were all below 30%, with the Social Democratic Party of Finland even receiving less than 20%. Compared with other parties, the comparative advantage of the leading parties' vote shares is not prominent, reflecting the reality of a limited voter base and weak governing foundations for the Social Democrats and the Labour Party.
Second, the stability of multi-party coalition governments faces tests. Since no single party can obtain an absolute majority in the general election, all four Nordic countries have multi-party coalition governments. Differing positions on specific issues subject multi-party coalitions to tests of stability and sustainability. After the Finnish election, a five-party coalition government led by the Social Democratic Party was formed, but the Centre Party, a member of the coalition, withdrew its support for Prime Minister Antti Rinne due to the government's poor handling of domestic labor disputes. This led to the collapse of the Social Democratic government after only six months in office, followed by the formation of a new government with Sanna Marin, Vice Chair of the Social Democratic Party, as Prime Minister.
Third, the strength of right-wing populist parties should not be underestimated. In the Nordic general elections, right-wing populist parties performed differently: although the Danish People's Party saw its votes plummet, Finnish right-wing parties performed well. The gap between the Finnish Social Democratic Party and the Finns Party was only 0.2%, with only a one-seat difference in parliament; the two parties are evenly matched. Right-wing populist parties will constitute a powerful constraint on center-left governments led by Social Democrats.
Fourth, center-left governments also face the test of improving governing effectiveness. This time, center-left parties came to power against a backdrop of good economic performance, low unemployment and inflation rates, and the basic resolution of the refugee issue. Voters chose center-left parties largely due to dissatisfaction with center-right policies. Therefore, although the political pendulum is swinging in a direction favorable to the center-left, it does not mean they can hold their governing positions securely from now on. In fact, as traditional major parties under a multi-party system, whether they can govern long-term fundamentally depends on whether the Social Democratic and Labour parties can find a balance and provide solutions between their held ideals and the realistic needs of voters, between rebuilding a strong welfare state and maintaining economic growth, and between the urgent issue of climate change and sustainable economic development. Whether the governing plans, capabilities, and effectiveness of Nordic center-left parties can satisfy voters in the future remains to be seen.
(Author's affiliation: Institute of Contemporary Socialism, Shandong University) Web Editor: Zhang Jian Source: Contemporary World, Issue 2, 2022