Dong Muxi: An Analysis of the Reasons Behind the Australian Labor Party's 2022 Election Victory
As a political force within the capitalist framework, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) occupies a center-left position on the Australian political spectrum. Over its more than 130-year history, its stance toward capitalism has repeatedly oscillated and adjusted between critique and compromise in an effort to secure more votes and greater political space. In the 2022 Australian federal election, the Labor Party defeated the Liberal–National Coalition (hereafter referred to as "the Coalition") to become the largest party in the Federal Parliament. Anthony Albanese assumed office as Prime Minister. The Labor Party returned to the seat of government after a nine-year absence from the political stage.
I. External Environmental Factors in the Australian Labor Party’s Election Victory
Since the 2008 international financial crisis, Australia’s accelerating economic recession, division between the rich and poor, and the polarization of the party landscape have prompted a re-awakening of laborers, laying the social foundation for a return to class politics in Australia.
(1) The Widening Gap Between Rich and Poor
During the "Golden Age" of the Australian economy in the 1950s and 60s following World War II, the rise of the welfare state significantly improved the working and living conditions of the broad masses of wage laborers. This led an increasing number of wage laborers to reject their identity as the working class and instead categorize themselves as middle class; for a time, the middle class became the engine of Australia's economic development and the ballast of its political stability. However, the 2008 international financial crisis completely shattered the middle-class illusions of the broad masses of wage laborers. To address the crisis, both Coalition and Labor governments implemented fiscal austerity policies and welfare reforms. White-collar workers, who had presumed themselves to be middle class, fell into even more severe predicaments than blue-collar workers during the crisis, including unemployment, asset shrinkage, and falling wages. A trend of widening wealth inequality emerged in Australia. A 2020 report jointly released by the Australian Council of Social Service and the University of New South Wales showed that the gap between rich and poor continues to expand, with the average wealth of the rich at the tip of the "pyramid" being 90 times that of the poor. Moreover, over the past 15 years, the value of the wealth held by the rich has increased more than 11 times faster than that of the poor. The report also studied Australian Bureau of Statistics data from 2017–2018, revealing that the wealthiest 20% of the population had incomes six times higher than the poorest 20%, up from five times in 2015–2016. The widening wealth gap objectively gathered increasing momentum for the comeback of the Labor Party, which upholds ideals of equality and justice and advocates for increased government regulation.
(2) The Resurgence of Class Consciousness Among Wage Laborers
The widening wealth gap in Australia has brought about an acceleration of class differentiation. The class structure is quietly shifting from an "olive shape"—small at both ends and large in the middle—to a "dumbbell shape"—large at both ends and small in the middle. Faced with harsh reality, more and more middle-class individuals are reconsidering their social status and class affiliation and returning to the ranks of the working class; the trend of a shrinking middle class has become increasingly evident. In surveys where Western scholars asked, "In politics, people sometimes talk about 'left' and 'right'. On a scale of 0 to 10, where would you place yourself? (0 is left, 10 is right). Using the same scale, where would you place the two federal parties?", research found that in 2019, the degree of left-right polarization between the two parties reached 2.6 points, the highest record since 2004. Specifically, the average gap between voters’ positions and the Liberal Party's position was 1.5 points, while the gap with the Labor Party was 1.1 points; the trend of voters moving toward the left became more pronounced. Looking back at history, the Labor Party entered the political stage with the support of the trade union movement as the spokesperson for the working class. In the process of growing into a major Australian political party, Labor long relied on the steadfast support of working-class voters and established close ties with them. The return of the middle class undoubtedly strengthened the class power for Labor to regain its governing status.
(3) The Relative Decline of the Coalition
During its nine consecutive years in power, frequent internal strife within the Liberal Party led to multiple changes in leadership. After Malcolm Turnbull launched a "coup" on September 15, 2015, forcing Tony Abbott from office, the Turnbull-led Coalition held only a slim majority in the government, causing the Coalition to be repeatedly stymied when advancing key policy agendas. After 2018, internal factional struggles within the Liberal Party intensified. Turnbull faced a "palace coup" [1], and Treasurer Scott Morrison was elected leader of the Liberal Party, taking office as Prime Minister. The frequent changing of prime ministers exacerbated the instability of the Australian political situation and triggered public dissatisfaction.
Furthermore, the turbulent domestic politics left Australia's political elites exhausted by frequent partisan strife, leaving them no time to deal with various challenges in domestic and foreign affairs. The austerity budget implemented by the Abbott government’s cabinet seriously undermined the Coalition’s governing position. Turnbull failed to formulate coherent policies in areas ranging from taxation to energy; his "coup" occurred after the Coalition's support rate had lagged behind Labor's for 38 consecutive polls. During Morrison's tenure, crises such as wildfires, floods, the pandemic, high inflation, a serious deterioration in relations with China, and stagnant national income left the Australian economy flagging and subjected Morrison to widespread questioning and criticism. Especially in early 2021, a series of sex scandals involving the Australian government caused an uproar, miring the Coalition government in a political quagmire and seriously damaging its image in the eyes of the public. A poll conducted by The Australian showed that the Liberal Party’s support had dropped to its lowest point since 2019. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation commented that there was a widespread desire among the public in this election for "change born of frustration."
II. Internal Supporting Factors in the Australian Labor Party’s Election Victory
Profound changes in the Australian social environment and the immense pressure of being in opposition for a long time forced the Labor Party to re-examine itself. It carried out reforms and adjustments in its policy concepts, organizational system, and leadership image, which became the internal factors supporting its victory.
(1) A Pullback Toward Left-Wing Policy Concepts
In the late 1990s, the Australian Labor Party, seeking survival within the framework of neoliberal theory, followed the example of the British Labour Party and embarked on the "Third Way" [2]. However, the Australian Labor Party found it difficult to coordinate conflicts between different interest groups and failed to produce a political concept capable of effectively integrating the lower and middle classes. Nor could it rescue Australia from its economic and social crises due to the contradictory and ambiguous nature of its policies. From the perspective of its social base, in order to attract the support of the urban middle class, the Labor Party deviated from its traditions, lost its discourse power on issues of social justice, and failed the expectations of grassroots voters, thereby losing the stable support of its core working-class electorate.
Faced with the resurgence of working-class consciousness, the reconstruction of a left-wing political and social-democratic program became imperative. Reclaiming left-wing traditions became a new trend in Labor's transformation during the periods of Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese. During this time, the Labor Party attempted to respond to the demands of the working class by moving closer to traditional left-wing positions.
First, opposing economic inequality and increasing ideological distance from neoliberalism. The Labor Party pursued a "small target" strategy, focusing on economic issues. Shorten opposed the Turnbull Coalition government's plan to reduce the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25%, arguing that "unfair policies exacerbate inequality of outcomes" and that the Liberal Party's position was to "give tax cuts to those at the top end of town while leaving everyone else to scrape by." During their tenures as Labor leaders, both Paul Keating and Julia Gillard had advocated for lowering corporate tax rates; this shift reflects a profound change in Labor's stance. In fact, by the 2016 election, the Labor Party under Shorten had solidified its ideological distance from the neoliberal reforms of the Bob Hawke and Keating eras. Shorten emphasized that despite decades of economic growth, the income and wealth gap was widening, and economic inequality was at its highest level in 75 years. Additionally, Shorten broke with Labor's traditional conventions by publicly criticizing wealthy business interest groups, calling them the "top end of town." With workers' incomes at their lowest in half a century, he argued that inequality was "the greatest threat to our economic health and social cohesion." Under Shorten's leadership, Labor formulated a series of policies embodying fairness. For example, new programs in areas such as childcare and dental care for the elderly would be funded by closing essentially regressive tax loopholes for the "top end of town." Following Shorten, Albanese, as an "Old Labor" [3] man and a member of the party's left wing, placed even greater emphasis on the Labor Party's credibility as the spokesperson for lower- and middle-class working groups. He pointed out that against a backdrop of inflation as high as 5.1%, people's incomes increased by only 2.4% in 2022, the lowest value since 1998. He promised to help Australians obtain higher-paying jobs, fix the "broken bargaining system," and achieve real growth in the minimum wage. He planned to use more public spending to solve the cost-of-living crisis, such as a planned £4.1 billion [sic] increase in government spending on childcare, free TAFE (technical and further education), renewable energy, and Medicare. Overall, Labor under Shorten and Albanese paid more attention to economic inequality and adopted a more social-democratic and less market-oriented approach to labor relations and economic management than during the Kevin Rudd era, and especially the Gillard era. Both Shorten and Albanese used more traditional, interventionist left-wing discourse, attempting to correct the economic and social inequalities encountered by marginalized groups and emphasizing that the failure of Australia's market economy was the cause of increased inequality and other social ills.
Second, racial policies became more inclusive and progressive. Building on the emphasis of economic exploitation and rising inequality faced by all Australians, Shorten and Albanese particularly emphasized a willingness to recognize the disadvantages and discrimination faced by racial and ethnic minority groups based on their racial identity. They continued the discourse of Keating and Rudd regarding Indigenous issues, emphasizing the recognition and correction of past mistakes, addressing the intergenerational impact of forced removals, and providing financial compensation to the "Stolen Generations" [4]. Comparing their discourse on Indigenous issues with that of Gillard reveals a very obvious progressiveness. Gillard’s discourse focused on responsibility, while Shorten and Albanese focused on national self-determination and measures to address existing and historical disadvantages. At the same time, they adhered to Labor’s consistent position that multiculturalism not only makes Australia’s culture and society more vibrant but is also a key driver of economic growth and prosperity. Shorten strongly opposed the Abbott Coalition government’s proposal to amend the Racial Discrimination Act, exposing the Coalition government’s use of racial and cultural issues as a strategy to cover up its unequal economic policies, and promised to establish a $10 million national healing fund for Indigenous people and their families. Albanese emphasized that Labor is committed to promoting the full implementation of the Uluru Statement from the Heart, promising to hold a referendum to amend the Constitution to introduce an Indigenous Voice to Parliament into the Australian Constitution, establishing a parliamentary advisory body to "convey the voice of Indigenous people to Parliament," and allowing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to participate in decisions related to their land.
Third, responding to climate change with more proactive policies. The Labor Party has consistently advocated for low-carbon emission reduction policies and supported climate governance. During Bill Shorten's leadership of the Labor Party, taking action to address climate change was a core issue for the party. Shorten maintained the decision Kevin Rudd made during his second term as leader to make the abolition of the carbon tax Labor policy. However, at the same time, he advocated for a carbon emissions trading scheme for industry and called for increased renewable energy production, including greater investment in renewable energy technologies. In the 2019 federal election, Shorten proposed a series of climate policy initiatives, including a proposal to ensure carbon emissions were reduced by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030 and that 50% of Australia's energy would come from renewable sources. Broadly speaking, the Labor Party attempted to reclaim the effective framework for addressing climate change used since 2007 and sought to construct climate action as a major point of contention between the two parties, with the aim of demonstrating that Labor possessed a more modern and pragmatic action plan than the Coalition to meet the threat of climate change. In recent years, public concern has grown as natural disasters and other issues triggered by climate change have directly impacted Australian society; thus, in the 2022 federal election, the Labor Party placed climate action at a higher priority, playing the "low-carbon card." Labor's commitment was to use market regulation mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions by 43% from 2005 levels by 2030 and to increase the proportion of renewable energy generation from 31% in 2021 to 82% by 2030. Anthony Albanese attempted to frame Australia as an emerging climate leader on the global stage, claiming that Australia had returned to the fight against climate change and was ready to play a leading role in addressing the worsening climate crisis.
(2) Vigorously recruiting party members and further expanding intra-party democracy
In response to the loss of party members, the Labor Party passed a resolution at its 2015 National Conference to recruit members on a large scale. This was achieved not only by implementing a more convenient "one-click" online membership application and encouraging young people, Indigenous Australians, and women to join—while also encouraging union members to join as individuals and providing membership fee discounts—but also by adapting to the needs of the information and network era through the innovative establishment of various "issue branches." These provided a platform for activities for young people who were reluctant to join traditional geographical branches but were interested in specific policy issues. Furthermore, to build a reserve of future members, Labor established an online "think tank" to attract non-party supporters. Additionally, to involve more rank-and-order members in the party's policy-making process, the Labor Party changed the decision-making mechanism for the Australian National Platform starting in 2015, moving from the format of the National Conference to a National Policy Forum. Among the 65 members of the National Policy Forum, in addition to five Labor MPs and 20 members of the Labor caucus, there are 20 representatives of Labor branch members and 20 union representatives. They jointly participate in the formulation of Labor's platform and policies, increasing the participation and decision-making rights of grassroots members within the party.
(3) Reshaping the candidate's image
During Bill Shorten's leadership, the Labor Party introduced a series of maturely developed policies. However, because media leaks suggested Shorten was the "faceless man" behind Julia Gillard replacing Kevin Rudd in 2010 and Rudd's return in 2013, combined with his previous involvement in union corruption cases, the narrative that "Shorten cannot be trusted" became deeply ingrained. Although Shorten worked hard during his career as Opposition Leader to portray himself as the leader of a strong team and focused on improving his image, he was never able to become the "preferred Prime Minister" in the eyes of the public, remaining consistently disadvantaged in the rivalry with Liberal Party leaders. As some scholars have noted: "Shorten's public image was that of a robot without firm convictions, yet his policies were more numerous and bolder than those of any previous Opposition Leader." However, election results demonstrated that leadership is more important than policy. In the 2019 election, although Labor's support generally led the Coalition's, Shorten's personal ratings as preferred Prime Minister dragged down Labor's polling and hindered its political ambitions.
After the 2019 election defeat, Shorten announced his resignation, and in the subsequent election for a new Labor leader, Anthony Albanese was elected as the sole candidate. Unlike many previous Australian Prime Ministers, Albanese comes from a truly "grassroots" background; he grew up in public housing in Camperdown, and his mother was a disability pensioner. Despite these difficult origins, Albanese entered politics immediately after graduating with a degree in economics from the University of Sydney, entering the Federal Parliament in 1996. During the Labor government of 2007–2013, he served as Minister for Infrastructure and Transport and briefly as Deputy Prime Minister in 2013. Albanese never shies away from his background; instead, he uses "grassroots" as an identity label, frequently visiting communities to listen to public opinion. His "grassroots" origins allow him to truly understand the situation of disadvantaged groups and better know how to create opportunities for those in unfavorable environments.
Furthermore, after becoming Labor leader, to make himself more attractive to voters, Albanese lost 18 kilograms and focused on reshaping his image with more fashionable suits and glasses. According to surveys by the Australian polling agency Newspoll, voters considered Albanese "trustworthy," "having a plan for the nation's future," and "caring about the people." Albanese's moderate, pragmatic, and accessible image won over voters, making him the preferred Prime Minister in the eyes of Australians.
III. Analysis and Evaluation of the Australian Labor Party's 2022 Election Victory
Labor's victory this time indicates that, as the backbone of the Australian moderate left, the party still plays an irreplaceable role on the Australian political stage. However, various signs suggest that Labor's "return" is quite limited, and it still faces numerous challenges in its future development.
(1) Labor's return is limited
First, the comparative advantage of Labor's vote share is limited. Labor's victory in the 2022 federal election masks the fact that its primary vote in the House of Representatives (32.58%) fell to a historic low. The Coalition's primary vote (35.49%) was also very low; together, Labor and the Coalition won only about two-thirds of the primary seats, while 31.93% of voters cast their primary votes for other minor parties and independent candidates. It was only under Australia's "preferential voting system" that traditional parties maintained a clear advantage, as voters must indicate a preference for either Labor or the Liberal/National Party, even if these parties are not the voter's first choice. As polling showed, two days before the election, one-third of Australians "disliked" any of the candidate parties, but regardless, voters had to choose one of two "devils" to form the next government. This allowed Labor to eventually gain more than half the seats in the House of Representatives despite receiving less than one-third of the primary vote. Based on Labor's low primary vote, some scholars believe Labor's victory relied on "lukewarm support." [5]
Second, the extent of Labor's ideological shift is limited. Looking at the history of the Australian Labor Party, its ideology and political positioning have undergone multiple adjustments. In the 1950s, amidst the Cold War, to moderate the opposition to socialism from the party's right wing and cater to the interests of middle-class voters whose views were inconsistent with Labor's socialist goals, the party revised its traditional goal of "socialization of industry, production, distribution, and exchange" to a new goal of "democratic socialization of industry, production, distribution, and exchange," establishing a democratic socialist ideology. Since the 1980s, the height of neoliberalism meant that the Keynesianism long practiced by Labor lost its effectiveness under new economic conditions. Labor thus began to focus more on economic efficiency; its abandonment of the concept of "nationalization" and its promotion of "privatization" and "marketization" signaled the neoliberalization of its democratic socialist ideology. Since the mid-1990s, the Labor Party, having been "baptized" by neoliberalism, faced an "identity crisis" brought about by its rightward political shift. To break through the political limitations of traditional left-right parties and establish the uniqueness of Labor's political philosophy and identity, the party embarked on the "Third Way." However, the rise of far-left political groups such as "GetUp" in Australia indicated that progressive left-wing values and the lower-middle classes still needed political representation, but Labor was no longer their only choice. In recent years, Labor has returned to left-wing traditions through a process of oscillation and adjustment, attempting to clarify its political stance of safeguarding the interests of the lower-middle classes. However, facts show that Labor is merely correcting inequalities in the real economy and society by placing more restrictions on the power of capital and financial elites. Its reflection on and critique of the shortcomings of neoliberalism more so reflect the problem of failing state governance under the impact of economic crises and the COVID-19 pandemic. Its leftward ideological turn is a limited adjustment with a distinct pragmatist character.
Third, Labor's dominance in advancing political issues in Parliament is limited. Since Albanese took office, the Labor government has faced a series of domestic livelihood challenges in the post-pandemic era—such as curbing prices, promoting employment, and addressing climate change—while externally facing political issues like improving relations with China and strengthening international cooperation. Looking at parliamentary seats, in the 151-seat House of Representatives, Labor won 77 seats (just over half), the Coalition won 58, and of the other 16 seats, the Centre Alliance won one, Katter's Australian Party won one, the Greens won four, and independent candidates won ten. [6] This means that although Labor holds the reins of power, its lack of a significant parliamentary advantage means it will inevitably be restricted and squeezed by multiple parties in the new government, leading to a situation where it is hampered at every turn when advancing its political agenda.
(2) Labor's future development still has a long way to go
First, how to clarify its own positioning. Attempting to re-establish left-wing identity characteristics through reform is part of Labor's effort to win back the trust of traditional working-class voters. While the return to left-wing traditions has a certain social foundation in the context of economic crises and the post-pandemic era, in the long term, with the accelerating social stratification of Australian society, the traditional links between class and parties have weakened, and voters' pragmatic voting tendencies have become increasingly evident. Therefore, how to correctly evaluate its own positioning and handle the relationship between maintaining a firm class stance and absorbing diverse forces still requires Labor to undergo arduous exploration.
Second, how to overcome the bottleneck of theoretical innovation. The 2008 international financial crisis exposed the flaws of neoliberalism, and Labor attempted to draw a clear line with neoliberalism to escape the theoretical dilemma of the "Third Way." However, whether it was Shorten or Albanese, although both worked hard to paint their political views—such as opposition to fiscal austerity, opposition to social inequality, increasing taxes on the wealthy, and increasing social welfare—with left-wing theoretical colors, they actually remained limited to a critique of neoliberalism. They have not yet found a new discourse mode that embodies social-democratic characteristics. To correct the "Third Way's" compromise with neoliberalism, Labor needs to break through the bottleneck of social-democratic theoretical innovation and promote the construction of a new political discourse that is both heritage-based and contemporary, thereby further guiding the party's sustainable development.
Third, there is the question of how to break through policy dilemmas under the structural crisis of capitalism. The Labor Party’s new round of transformation reflects the progressive nature of its left-wing policies; however, the policies promised by Albanese during the general election to alleviate the cost of living—such as tax cuts and the construction of affordable housing—all require strong state financial support. Nevertheless, according to data from the Australian Treasury, Australia has not yet emerged from the economic hardships triggered by the 2008 international financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic has caused the government to accumulate a large amount of additional debt. It is estimated that by the 2024–2025 fiscal year, government debt will reach a peak of 981 billion AUD (with the ratio of government debt to GDP reaching 40.9%), which is approximately four times higher than at the end of 2019, prior to the pandemic. Faced with the urgent need for economic recovery, the Labor government will inevitably have to "open new source streams and reduce outflows" [7]. It can be observed that since the election, the Labor government has already made compromises, not only continuing the Morrison government’s tax cuts for high-income groups but also refraining from making significant cuts to the mining and coal industries. As a reformist party, the Labor Party is committed to correcting the irrationalities existing in Australia’s economic and social construction within the framework of the capitalist system. However, against the backdrop of an intensifying structural crisis of capitalism in the post-pandemic era, there remains great uncertainty as to how far Labor can actually go in breaking through its left-wing policy dilemmas.
IV. Conclusion
The Australian Labor Party’s return to power in 2022 seems to run counter to the trend of right-wing resurgence seen in most Western countries. Looking across the globe, although there are individual cases—such as the New Zealand Labour Party in 2020 and the Social Democratic Party of Germany regaining the cabinet in 2021—indicating a nascent warming of center-left politics, the overall state of depression for Western social democratic parties has not yet been fundamentally reversed. Amidst the "great changes unseen in a century" [8] and the post-pandemic era, the influence of traditional mainstream Western political parties continues to weaken, with votes increasingly flowing from traditional major parties toward emerging parties and independent candidates. Judging from the results of Australia’s 2022 general election, the number of seats held by independent candidates in the House of Representatives increased from three to ten. Among them, the sudden rise of the "teal" [9] independent candidates, while shaking some of the Liberal Party’s "ballot warehouses" [10], also bolstered the strength of Australian right-wing conservative forces. At the same time, the wave of populism in Australia remains turbulent; far-right parties such as One Nation and the United Australia Party remain very active. In the future, if the Labor Party is to "cleave through the waves and move forward" [11], it must continue to expand and deepen its own path of reform and development.
(Author's affiliation: School of Marxism, Shandong University) Web Editor: Tongxin Source: Contemporary World and Socialism, Issue 5, 2023