Chen Mingfan: New Trends in the Development of World Socialism Under Great Changes
Looking at the global landscape, capitalism has already passed its "golden age" and is now moving toward an inevitable decline; meanwhile, socialism is advancing toward an unstoppable resurgence. This represents an unprecedented situation in the history of human social development. Applying a scientific "Big History" perspective [1] to overlook the developmental trends of world socialism allows us to be full of confidence in its prospects, to be fully prepared for the arduous and tortuous nature of the socialist developmental path, and to remain determined to achieve ever greater victories on the Long March of the New Era with a strong spirit of struggle.
The Rise and Development of the Socialist Movement Amidst Global Changes
To scientifically predict the developmental trends of world socialism, one must first review its historical trajectory. The socialist movement arose and developed through several periods of major global changes; it has created numerous glorious victories and experienced many setbacks and failures. Viewed overall, however, it has left an upward-sloping curve on the coordinates of history. In summarizing the historical lessons of the failed 1848 European revolutions, Marx profoundly revealed the laws governing proletarian revolution: “Proletarian revolutions, like those of the nineteenth century, criticize themselves constantly, interrupt themselves continually in their own course, come back to the apparently accomplished in order to begin it afresh, deride with unmerciful thoroughness the inadequacies, weaknesses and paltriness of their first attempts, seem to throw down their adversary only in order that he may draw new strength from the earth and rise again, more gigantic, before them, recoil ever and anon from the indefinite prodigiousness of their own aims, until a situation has been created which makes all turning back impossible, and the conditions themselves cry out: Hic Rhodus, hic salta! Here is the rose, here dance!” [2]
Nearly a century later, Comrade Mao Zedong, in summarizing the historical experience of the Chinese revolution, again argued for the developmental laws of the people’s revolution led by the proletariat: “Fight, fail, fight again, fail again, fight again . . . until their victory; that is the logic of the people, and they too will never go against this logic. This is another Marxist law.” [3] The proletarian movement in its true sense began during the global changes of the early 19th century. Although the 17th-century English Revolution pulled back the curtain on modern world history, industrial production was still in the stage of manufacture (handicraft workshops), and the modern proletariat had not yet formed. From the late 18th to the early 19th century, the British Industrial Revolution and the French Revolution triggered major global shifts. The modern proletariat began to take shape and gradually stepped onto the political stage.
The three great Utopian Socialists of the early 19th century—Saint-Simon, Fourier, and Owen—were called the “founders of socialism” by Engels. They exposed the evils and origins of capitalism and envisioned a beautiful blueprint for a future society. However, because they did not see the proletariat as the protagonist of this great social transformation, they pinned their hopes for achieving a new society on the benevolence of the propertied classes and monarchs. Engels pointed out: “The proletariat, which then for the first time was evolving itself from these propertyless masses as the nucleus of a new class, as yet quite incapable of independent political action.” [4] Raising this historical observation to the height of historical materialism, Engels noted: “The immature state of capitalist production and the immature class condition were corresponded to by immature theories. The solution of the social problems, which as yet lay hidden in undeveloped economic conditions, the Utopians attempted to evolve out of the human brain.” [5]
The French Revolution was a revolution that triggered a major global political shift. The British bourgeois revolution of the past involved an alliance between the bourgeoisie and the "new nobility" within feudal society against the absolute monarchy represented by the King. In contrast, the French Revolution was an alliance between the bourgeoisie and the masses against the absolute monarchy. These masses included the modern proletariat just emerging from industrial production. The proletariat received its first "political baptism" in this great revolutionary storm. The workers' movements in Britain, France, and Germany that erupted between the 1830s and 1840s marked the point where the proletariat began to step onto the political stage independently. In this period of major political change, the combat effectiveness of the proletariat first showed its sharp edge. Under the guidance of Marx and Engels, the first Communist party—the Communist League—was established. The publication of Marx and Engels' The Communist Manifesto provided a scientific theoretical guide for the proletarian revolutionary struggle; scientific socialism replaced utopian socialism, and the historical curtain of the world socialist movement was raised. The June Days uprising in France in 1848 and the Paris Commune uprising in 1871 saw waves of worker movements reaching one climax after another, becoming another striking feature of the global changes of that time.
After the failure of the Paris Commune, the world socialist movement fell into a low ebb. Entering the 20th century, an unprecedentedly major change arrived: the First World War and the Russian October Revolution. The First World War altered the landscape of imperialist international relations. The victory of the October Revolution transformed socialism from theory into reality, inaugurating a new era in humanity's march toward socialism. After the Second World War, socialism developed from victory in one country to victory in multiple countries. The victory of the Chinese Revolution in 1949 further transformed the global landscape, creating a confrontation between the two world systems of socialism and capitalism. This was a period when the socialist movement marched forward in triumph.
The drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe caused the world socialist movement to sink to a low point. Western politicians were ecstatic, clamoring about the "great failure of socialism" and asserting that China would follow in the footsteps of the Soviet Union, collapsing under the impact of a domino effect. Some within the revolutionary ranks also worried: how long can the red flag of socialism keep flying? Comrade Deng Xiaoping, with great foresight, pointed out: "Some countries have encountered serious setbacks, and socialism seems to have weakened. But the people have been tempered by this and have drawn lessons from it, which will prompt socialism to develop in a healthier direction." [6] History has proven that socialist China not only did not collapse but also created the twin miracles of rapid economic development and long-term social stability. Socialists around the world saw the light of hope for socialism in China. The socialist movement has traveled a long road through global changes; entering the 21st century, it has radiated new and vigorous vitality and will once again face the great examination of history.
Differentiation and Direction of the Socialist Movement During Its Development
After the rise of the world socialist movement in the 19th century, Marx and Engels struggled against various bourgeois and petty-bourgeois currents. Following Engels' death in 1895, opportunist trends of thought immediately reared their heads within the socialist movement. Eduard Bernstein proposed fallacies such as "peaceful transition into socialism" and "the final goal is nothing, the movement is everything," openly challenging scientific socialism and claiming that the Social Democratic Party should be transformed into a "reformist party of democratic socialism." Left-wing representatives within the Social Democratic parties, such as Lenin, Rosa Luxemburg, and Clara Zetkin, waged a resolute struggle against Bernstein’s revisionism.
After the outbreak of World War I, the Second International collapsed, and the Social Democratic parties became parties of democratic socialism. Lenin led the left wing of the Social Democratic parties to establish Communist parties in various countries and founded the Communist International (Comintern); scientific socialism and democratic socialism went their separate ways. The world socialist movement underwent a fission, splitting into two major factions: one taking the path of revolution, the other the path of reform. The Communist parties, adhering to the principles of scientific socialism and committing themselves to integrating them with the realities of their respective countries, became the mainstream of the world socialist movement. The Russian October Revolution led to the victory of socialism in the world's largest country by land area, the Chinese Revolution led to the victory of socialism in the world's most populous country, and socialist regimes were established in many other nations. In less than half a century, the fledgling socialist system sprouted like bamboo shoots after a spring rain, growing amidst storms and writing a magnificent revolutionary epic of a new system replacing the old in human history.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, the world socialist movement fell into a low ebb. The Communist Party of China (CPC) withstood immense pressure and challenges, holding high the banner of socialism and becoming a "trend-setter" [7] of the era. Socialists across the globe saw the future and hope of socialism in China’s development, and the world socialist movement began to gradually recover its vitality. That the CPC has become the mainstay of the world socialist movement is a fact recognized by Communist parties and revolutionaries worldwide. Beside China, countries like Vietnam, North Korea, Cuba, and Laos also adhere to the general direction of socialism, achieving extraordinary successes in defending their fledgling regimes and in socialist construction.
The Communist Party of Vietnam previously led its people to victory in the Resistance War against the French and the Resistance War Against America to Save the Nation, creating the miracle of a small country defeating a large one and a weak nation defeating a powerful one. After Ho Chi Minh’s death, the CPV followed the Soviet Union down a detour for a time. The CPV then summarized its lessons, learned from China's experience, implemented Đổi Mới (Renovation), carried out internal critiques of democratic socialism, and insisted on following the socialist path without "changing its colors." Cuba, as a developing country under U.S. military threats and economic blockades, has overcome numerous difficulties, persevered to this day, and is embarking on a new journey with confidence. North Korea has long faced military threats and economic blockades from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, making the defense of national security its primary task. The Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) pursues Songun (Military-First) politics, vigorously developing defense and economic construction; North Korea's soldier-to-civilian ratio is among the highest in the world. Due to the grim national security environment, the WPK called for a struggle to build a powerful nation in culture, military affairs, and economy. Entering the 21st century, North Korea gradually initiated a process of reform; it is expected that its security environment will be difficult to fundamentally improve for a considerable period. North Korean socialism will continue to persist and develop in a difficult environment. In the more than 30 years since Laos implemented its policy of "renovation and opening up," its economy and society have made significant progress, people's lives have continuously improved, and the party and government are determined to shed the label of "least developed country" in the coming years.
Communists and left-wing forces in capitalist and developing countries adhere to the general direction of struggling for socialism. However, because the conditions for these countries' leaders to seize power are insufficient, they can only unite and educate the broad lower-class masses through peaceful means, striving to win a majority of seats in parliament with their support. After taking power, they implement socialist reforms in the economic, political, and cultural spheres, guiding the country gradually onto the socialist path. However, looking at the current balance of power in capitalist countries, the conditions for socialist parties to hold power long-term do not yet exist in these countries for a foreseeable period. "Eurocommunism" held that it was impossible to achieve the armed seizure of power in developed capitalist countries and that one could only take a peaceful, democratic path, utilizing capitalist parliamentary systems to gradually strive for power through general elections. In the late 20th century, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the changes in Eastern Europe, Eurocommunism went into decline. When discussing the evaluation of Eurocommunism, Comrade Deng Xiaoping said: "Whether Eurocommunism is right or wrong should not be judged by others... In the final analysis, the answer must be given by their own practice. People are exploring according to their own conditions; this cannot be criticized. Even if they are wrong, they must summarize their own experience and explore anew!" [8]
In some developing countries, Communist parties that have not yet taken power likewise can only accumulate and develop their strength by striving for seats in parliament, as the conditions for seizing revolutionary power are not met. Among these, the momentum of left-wing forces in Latin America is striking—from Allende in Chile to Chavez and Maduro in Venezuela, as well as progressive parties in Argentina, Brazil, and Bolivia, waves of social transformation have been launched during their periods in power. Although some national transformations failed, some continue to persist today. Although the United States uses all means to "put out fires" everywhere, "the wildfire cannot consume them; they grow again when the spring breeze blows." [9] As the U.S. and the Western world go into decline, the prospects for the development of Latin American socialist movements are broad, and several countries governed by left-wing parties are overcoming numerous difficulties to move their economies toward recovery.
Another faction within the world socialist movement is democratic socialism, represented by socialist parties (including social democratic and labor parties). In essence, democratic socialism has already departed from socialism and turned into a reformed version of capitalism. Throughout its history, democratic socialism has left many ignominious records. During the German and Hungarian Revolutions that broke out after the Russian October Revolution, the right wing of the socialist parties acted as accomplices to bourgeois rulers, even becoming executioners who strangled the revolutions. During the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the drastic changes in Eastern Europe, democratic socialism collaborated from within with the "peaceful evolution" [10] strategy pursued by Western countries, leading to the collapse of socialist regimes in the Soviet Union and Eastern European nations. In many capitalist countries, socialist parties and bourgeois parties have become the "left and right hands" of bourgeois rule, taking turns in power. The role of the socialist party is defined as the "doctor at the bedside" of capitalism. When capitalism falls into crisis and arouses strong public discontent, the socialist party is allowed to take office to prescribe a "miracle cure" for bourgeois rule, helping the bourgeoisie weather the crisis.
In some developing countries, various forms of "national socialism" [11] exist; their names are diverse and they have not formed a complete system. After gaining political independence, to counter the aggression and plunder of Western neo-colonialism, the ruling bourgeoisie in these countries frequently raised the banner of socialism, with some even writing socialism into the country’s name. To win public support, the rulers of these countries adopted measures beneficial to the people, such as implementing nationalization in industrial sectors and establishing cooperatives in rural areas. In the struggle against imperialism, "national socialism" became an ally of the world socialist movement.
Looking at the historical process of the world socialist movement’s differentiation, evolution, and development amidst the Great Changes, we know that the victory of new things over decaying old things must undergo a process of long-term struggle; this is an unalterable law of historical development. As early as when the Russian Soviet regime was born amid internal and external difficulties, Lenin pointed out: "No one who is at all capable of viewing things historically can doubt for a minute that the present state of disorganization is a state of transition—a transition from the old to the new, a state of growth of the new." [12] The world socialist movement’s journey from a low ebb toward resurgence must similarly undergo such a process; this is the inevitable state of growth for the socialist movement.
China Leads the Resurgence of the World Socialist Movement Amidst the Great Changes
As early as 1962, when envisioning the future direction of the world situation, Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out: "From now on, the next fifty to one hundred years or so will be a great era of radical change in the world's social systems, an era of earth-shaking changes, incomparable to any previous historical era. Living in such an era, we must be prepared to engage in great struggles that have many different characteristics from previous forms of struggle. For this cause, we must integrate the universal truths of Marxism-Leninism with the concrete reality of China’s socialist construction and the concrete reality of the future world revolution as well as possible, and step-by-step recognize the objective laws of struggle through practice." [13] What Comrade Mao Zedong foresaw is precisely the unprecedented "Great Changes unseen in a century" that the world is currently experiencing.
In the New Era, General Secretary Xi Jinping has further developed Comrade Mao Zedong’s judgment, profoundly revealing the characteristics of the current Great Changes in the world and pointing out our country's response strategies. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "At present, the world's Great Changes unseen in a century are accelerating their evolution, and the characteristics of changes in the world, the times, and history are becoming more apparent. Our country’s development faces new strategic opportunities, new strategic tasks, new strategic stages, new strategic requirements, and a new strategic environment. The risks and challenges we need to respond to and the contradictions and problems we need to solve are more complex than ever before. The whole Party must enhance its awareness of potential danger, adhere to bottom-line thinking, strengthen the will to struggle, and improve the ability to struggle. We must respond to the changes, nurture new opportunities, and open new frontiers through correct strategies and tactics, and open up a new horizon for the development of our cause by relying on tenacious struggle. The most fundamental thing is to manage our own affairs well." [14] This statement by General Secretary Xi Jinping is the best verification of and response to Comrade Mao Zedong’s prediction. In the New Era, the Communist Party of China (CPC) bears the historical heavy responsibility of striving to realize the "Two Resurgences": on the one hand, leading the people of all ethnic groups across the country to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation; on the other hand, leading and advancing the world socialist movement from its low ebb toward resurgence. The two great causes of "resurgence" advance each other, injecting powerful impetus into the evolution of the world's Great Changes in a progressive direction.
Since entering the New Era, the Party has led the people in arduous struggle on all fronts, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered a critical period. Building the governing party well is the fundamental guarantee for achieving victory. General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the Party’s self-revolution as the "Second Answer" to how the Party can escape the "Historical Cycle" [15] of rise and fall. This, combined with the "First Answer" proposed by Comrade Mao Zedong—that the Party and government must accept the supervision of the masses—forms an organically unified whole, thereby ensuring that the Marxist party does not change its nature and maintains long-term governance.
The CPC attaches great importance to the Party’s ideological and theoretical construction, adheres to the guiding position of Marxism throughout the Party, and promotes the Sinicization and modernization of Marxism by combining it with the national and international conditions of the New Era. The Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, formed amidst the Great Changes in the world since the 18th CPC National Congress, is the latest achievement in the Sinicization and modernization of Marxism. The Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party over the Past Century points out: "Comrade Xi Jinping has conducted profound thinking and made scientific judgments on a series of major theoretical and practical issues concerning the development of the Party and the country's cause in the New Era... He is the primary founder of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era is contemporary Chinese Marxism and twenty-first-century Marxism. It embodies the essence of Chinese culture and the spirit of China in our times, representing a new leap in the Sinicization of Marxism." [16]
The report to the 20th CPC National Congress pointed out: "Over the past decade, we have adhered to Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Theory of Three Represents, and the Scientific Outlook on Development, and fully implemented Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era... We have withstood risks and challenges from politics, economy, ideology, and nature... and pushed our country onto a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country." The important position of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era in the history of Marxist development has been unanimously recognized and highly praised by Communist parties and left-wing figures globally. Agnanot, Deputy Secretary-General of the Gabonese Democratic Party, believes that Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era has opened up a new realm for the development of Marxism in China. Under the scientific guidance of this important thought, the CPC will lead the Chinese people to firmly follow a development path consistent with their own national conditions, and will surely make new and greater contributions to world peace, development, and the cause of human progress. Gennady Zyuganov, Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, noted: "The CPC has not only developed Marxist-Leninist thought—they are becoming a model for the whole world. Their experience is universal and needs to be discussed and studied in depth and detail." Eduardo Regalado, a senior researcher at the International Policy Research Center of Cuba, pointed out: "The CPC is the fundamental creator of the 'Chinese Miracle.' In China's modernization process, it has always been at the core of the design and implementation of economic and social policies." As a century-old party that has maintained long-term governance after seizing power, the CPC has always preserved the original character of a Marxist party, leading the people to overcome numerous difficulties and continuously seize new victories for the cause of socialism, maintaining perpetual vitality. This is a miracle in the history of world political parties. The success of the CPC has boosted the morale and confidence of Communist parties worldwide and provided experience that can be drawn upon.
Adhering to the principle of "people first" [17] is the fundamental difference between the CPC and Western bourgeois parties. The authenticity of the whole-process people's democracy practiced by the CPC stands in sharp contrast to the hypocrisy of Western democracy. Socialists and progressive people worldwide are seeing this clearer and clearer through the comparison. US independent journalist Danny Haiphong, comparing the pros and cons of Chinese democracy and Western-style democracy, pointed out: Whole-process people's democracy is constructed to achieve the goals and plans set for the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, while Western-style democracy is constructed for the interests of monopoly capitalism. An important criterion for measuring the success of a democratic system is the extent to which the governance structure of representatives can satisfy the people's aspiration for a better life. Western-style democracy regards the election itself as the highest achievement, and the question of whether this system serves the needs of the broad masses of people is usually ignored, serving entirely to mask the fact that powerful Western interest groups have already set the policy agenda before the vote. Recognizing the essential difference between China’s whole-process people's democracy and Western-style democracy serves as an important cautionary tale for Communist parties in Western and developing countries that follow the parliamentary road.
Since the 18th National Congress, the path of Chinese-path modernization, created by the CPC through long-term exploration, has undergone continuous innovation and breakthroughs. This is a new path of development different from Western-style modernization, expanding and enriching the connotation of modernization. As the report to the 20th CPC National Congress pointed out: "Chinese-path modernization offers a new choice for humanity as it seeks to achieve modernization; the CPC and the Chinese people offer more and better Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and Chinese strength to help solve the common problems facing humanity, making new and greater contributions to the noble cause of human peace and development!" The path of Chinese-path modernization is undoubtedly a great encouragement to Communist parties and left-wing forces in developing countries.
The concept of a community with a shared future for humanity advocated by the CPC has gained universal recognition from people all over the world. The United Nations has also incorporated this concept into its resolutions multiple times. The US pursues hegemonism, unilateralism, and racism to shape a US-centric international relations pattern, causing strong dissatisfaction among capitalist countries and broad developing countries harmed by the US. China advocates peaceful development and win-win cooperation, emphasizing that the destiny of all humanity is shared in safety and peril. It provides a scientific answer to the "questions of the times"—"What is wrong with the world? Where is it headed? What should we do?"—allowing people around the world to see direction and hope in a chaotic and distorted international relations pattern. A community with a shared future for humanity has become the mainstream international public opinion. This concept provides world socialist parties with a theoretical weapon to unite the people and enhances the voice of socialists and left-wingers in international discourse.
Facing the great changes unseen in a century [18], the world socialist movement—situated within a complex and ever-changing historical environment and influenced by the bidirectional synergy of China’s development miracle and the decline of capitalism—is regrouping and gradually moving from a low ebb toward rejuvenation. Although the difficulties are manifold, the prospects are favorable, as the two historical factors mentioned above that determine the direction of the world socialist movement are irreversible. The decline of capitalism is mandated by the laws of historical development and is therefore unstoppable; no matter how many "salvation plans" the brain trusts of bourgeois rulers propose, it will be to no avail, and however many lies they concoct, they will only serve to make the truth more conspicuous [19]. Since the outbreak of the Western financial crisis in 2018, bourgeois rulers have consistently failed to find a way out [20]. Furthermore, a global pandemic led to the eruption of an all-encompassing crisis in the capitalist world across the economic, political, and diplomatic spheres. In the United States, as the two parties alternate in power and presidents are constantly replaced, they remain helpless in dealing with the crisis. U.S. efforts to shift the burden of the crisis have led to intensified contradictions with both its allies and developing countries. Domestically, the two American parties shift blame onto one another, causing vicious infighting and further exacerbating the fracturing of American society. While the Great Crisis of 1929 was salvaged by the Roosevelt New Deal, it is difficult for a second New Deal to emerge today. Monopoly capital groups shift the bitter fruits of the crisis onto the people of capitalist and developing nations, causing popular resentment to seethe; waves of public protest rise one after another, sweeping through Europe, America, and the Third World—a situation rarely seen in history. Opinion polls show a sharp decline in approval ratings for Western leaders, and even changing heads of government cannot stop this decline. Anti-American sentiment among the people of developing countries is rising, and the outcry against neocolonialist oppression is growing. This severe crisis appearing in the capitalist world provides a rare opportunity for the world socialist movement to move toward rejuvenation.
Comrade Lenin once argued that three conditions are necessary for a revolutionary upsurge: first, the ruling class can no longer rule in the old way; second, the masses of people can no longer live in the old way; but these two points alone are insufficient. Lenin pointed out: "For a revolution to take place, it is not enough for the exploited and oppressed masses to realize the impossibility of living in the old way, and demand changes; for a revolution to take place, it is essential that the exploiters should not be able to live and rule in the old way... Revolution is impossible without a nationwide crisis (affecting both the exploited and the exploiters)." He further noted that revolution does not arise out of every revolutionary situation, but only from a situation where objective changes are accompanied by subjective changes, namely, "the ability of the revolutionary class to take revolutionary mass action strong enough to break (or dislocate) the old government, which never, not even in a period of crisis, 'falls,' if it is not 'pushed.'" [34] Lenin also pointed out: "It would be a mistake to believe that the revolutionary classes are always strong enough to effect a revolution whenever such a revolution has fully matured by virtue of the conditions of social and economic development... The revolution may be ripe, but the revolutionary creators of that revolution may lack sufficient strength to consummate it, in which case society decays, and this process of decay is sometimes dragged out for decades." [35] This is precisely the current situation in the United States and Western countries. The rulers command a powerful state apparatus, the proletarian parties are not yet mature, and the discontent of the masses has not yet been elevated to the level of rational pursuit. Therefore, the development of the world socialist movement must still undergo a long period of tempering.
The demonstration and leading role of China’s rapid development is also an important driving force for the world socialist movement’s transition from a low ebb toward rejuvenation. The Report to the 20th CPC National Congress pointed out: "The Communist Party of China is a party that seeks happiness for the Chinese people and rejuvenation for the Chinese nation; it is also a party that seeks progress for humanity and the common good for the world." [36] [21] We must continue to strive so that by the middle of this century, we will have built China into a great modern socialist power with leading comprehensive national strength and international influence. By that time, an unprecedented and encouraging situation will appear in the world, which will inevitably have an incalculable impact on the evolution of the great changes unseen in a century and on the development of the world socialist movement.