Cui Shoujun: Drivers and Impacts of the Rise of the "Global South"
In recent years, the concept of the "Global South" has continued to gain momentum, becoming a hot and high-frequency topic in the international public discourse. Following the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, a bloc composed of the vast majority of developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America refused to "pick a side," while Western countries launched a new round of diplomatic offensives to win over the "Global South." The European Union prioritized the establishment of new partnerships with the Global South; the 59th Munich Security Conference held in February 2023 set up a special session on "North-South Cooperation," emphasizing the need to engage the "Global South." Japan, as the rotating chair of the G7, advocated that the group should strengthen ties with the "Global South" and invited developing countries to attend the Hiroshima Summit in May 2023. At the same time, the will and voice of emerging markets and developing countries to seek strength through unity have grown louder. The BRICS summit held in South Africa in August 2023 pushed for the expansion of the BRICS mechanism under the theme of a "Global South Agenda." The "Group of 77 and China" summit, which concluded in Cuba in September 2023, emphasized its identity as the "Global South" to promote reform in the global governance system. The prominence of the "Global South" is striking; the American magazine Foreign Policy regarded the rise of the Global South as one of the most significant trends in global politics in 2023. Currently, the concept of the "Global South" presents new connotations distinct from the past. Clarifying the drivers and impacts of the rise of Global South forces will help further enhance its geopolitical cohesion and solidarity.
The Contemporary Connotations of the "Global South" Concept
In terms of its origin, the concept of the "Global South" can be traced back to 1969, first used by the American left-wing political activist Carl Oglesby. An active scholar in the American anti-war movement, Oglesby argued that "the North's dominance over the Global South" had persisted for centuries, producing an "unbearable social order," and he called for an early end to the Vietnam War [1]. In its ideological lineage, the "Global South" possesses a distinct "non-Western" character. Previously, most Western scholars divided the world into three non-overlapping "worlds." In 1952, the French scholar Alfred Sauvy defined the "Third World" as the vast array of developing countries that had recently gained independence or remained under colonial shackles. In 1964, the British sociologist Peter Worsley further argued that the "Third World" constituted the main body of the Non-Aligned Movement, representing the resistance and counterattack of developing countries against the bipolar order. Although Worsley’s view of the "Third World" was positive, the term largely became a "synonym" for countries characterized by economic poverty, developmental backwardness, and political instability.
Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the end of the "Second World" led to a rapid decline in the frequency of the term "Third World." Simultaneously, terms such as "developed," "developing," and "underdeveloped" faced criticism for treating "Western countries" as "advanced" and the "Rest" as "backward," as such a classification implicitly supports the idea of a linear development path. Unlike the connotations of the "Third World" expression, the term "Global South" avoids these pitfalls. In 1980, the report North-South: A Programme for Survival, released by the German Brandt Commission, reused the "North-South" concept, advocating that "Northern countries" should inject large amounts of capital into "Southern countries" to help the latter achieve modernization. In 1990, the United Nations published The Challenge to the South: The Report of the South Commission, aimed at helping "Southern countries" independently realize their national development aspirations. From then on, the concept of the "South" began to gain popularity. As the term "globalization" became the mainstream international narrative, the prefix "Global" was added to "South," imbuing the "Global South" with new meaning. In 2003, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) promoted the "Forging a Global South" project, integrating South-South cooperation into the priority policy agenda to enhance the discourse power of Southern countries.
The "Global South" possesses three layers of connotation: a geographical locational meaning, an economic developmental meaning, and a geopolitical meaning of seeking strength through unity. First is the "North-South divide" in the geographical dimension. Since the vast majority of developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are located south of 30° north latitude, the "Brandt Report" of the 1980s designated the 30th parallel north as the geographical dividing line between the "Southern World" and the "Northern World," regardless of whether a country is located in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Based on this, the 30th parallel north passes through North America, Central America, North Africa, and India before dipping southward, but specifically categorizes Australia and New Zealand as part of the "Northern World." Second is the "North-South gap" in the economic dimension—a difference in development. From the perspective of economic and social development indicators, the "Global South" refers to economically and socially underdeveloped countries. According to the United Nations' 2023 classification standards, among the 193 member states of the UN, 36 countries are currently identified as "developed countries," all located in Europe, North America, and the developed coastal regions of the Asia-Pacific; the remaining countries are all identified as "developing countries," "economies in transition," or "emerging market economies," all located in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean [2]. Finally, there is the connotation of seeking strength through unity in the geopolitical dimension. The vast number of developing countries share similar historical experiences and common developmental tasks. As a political "symbol of resistance," the "Global South" represents the "resistance sentiment" of "Southern countries" against the international order dominated by "Northern countries" and against neoliberal capitalism. To consolidate the strength of the "Global South" and effectively promote the process of South-South cooperation, emerging powers and developing countries have created multilateral mechanisms such as the BRICS mechanism, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Group of 77, driving the global governance system toward a more just and reasonable direction.
After the climax of the Ukraine crisis, the harsh sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia led to global economic instability and increased uncertainty, but simultaneously triggered a new cycle of economic globalization and a new economic paradigm, exerting a significant impact on the transformation of the global political and economic landscape. On one hand, Western countries attempted to draw emerging economies and developing countries into the camp of sanctions against Russia; however, "Global South" countries adhered to an independent foreign policy, refusing to serve as pawns in a geopolitical game and avoiding falling into the Western "democracy vs. authoritarianism" binary narrative. On the other hand, a new paradigm of economic globalization led by the BRICS mechanism is accelerating. BRICS countries have begun formulating new cooperation guidelines to address a series of challenges, including international sanctions, climate change, macroeconomic shocks, and financial volatility. The expansion of BRICS has further enhanced the influence of the "Global South" in the global geopolitical landscape, accelerating the construction of a new architecture for economic globalization and a new pattern for global governance. The "Global South" is becoming a community of development with mutual recognition and similar circumstances, possessing distinct commonalities of being non-Western, anti-hegemonic, development-oriented, and justice-seeking.
Multiple Drivers of the Rise of the "Global South"
Against the backdrop of the accelerated evolution of the changes unseen in a century [3], the emergence of the "Global South" craze represents an overall awakening of the vast number of developing countries amidst shifts in world politics. The rise of the "Global South" is not an accidental phenomenon but the inevitable result of the collective rise of developing countries. The "Great Changes" of the 21st century can be summarized as the decline of Western hegemony and the rise of the "Global South." Along with the enhancement of economic strength, changes in demographic structures, the development of world multipolarity, and the rise of non-Western-led international organizations, the rise of the "Global South" has multiple drivers.
First, the growth of economic strength is the direct driver of the rise of the "Global South." Since the Industrial Revolution, Western countries have used the power of the technological revolution to shape the world economic system according to the logic of capital, thereby forming an exploitative relationship of the developed over the underdeveloped and the West over the East. In 1950, Argentine economist Raúl Prebisch proposed the "center-periphery" dependency theory, arguing that the world system consists of two parts: the "center," where capitalist production technology has penetrated, and the "periphery," which remains backward in terms of production, technology, and organization. Thus, uneven development within the world system became a historical inevitability, and this inherent imbalance intensified as the "center" and "periphery" expanded. However, after the Cold War, the global model of industrial division of labor underwent significant changes. Complete product value chain networks were dismantled into multiple stages, dispersed across different countries for R&D, design, production, assembly, and sales. This provided a historical opportunity for developing countries to embed themselves into global value chains. Although technology-intensive and capital-intensive stages like R&D and design remain primarily in developed countries, labor-intensive and resource-intensive stages like processing, production, and assembly began to diffuse to developing countries. Multinational corporations, through the new international trade method of "intra-product trade between North and South," achieved the organic connection and value addition of upstream, midstream, and downstream product stages. The vast number of developing countries participated in and embedded themselves into the reconstruction of global value chains through vertical division of labor, taking over capital-intensive and labor-intensive industries transferred from developed countries, which powerfully drove their industrialization processes. The pursuit of surplus interests by developed countries eventually led to "industrial hollowing out" and the "virtualization of the economy."
Entering the 21st century, on one hand, the deep evolution of technological innovation and the industrial revolution pushed down the costs of information, communication, and transportation; on the other hand, the overall relaxation of the international landscape reduced many barriers restricting trade liberalization and investment facilitation. This provided new drivers for the extension of global value chains based on the deepening of industrial division and cost differentials. Emerging market countries have risen abruptly, with rapid upgrades in industrial structures, robust economic development, and swift growth in trade volume. A 2017 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report, The World in 2050, suggested that based on GDP measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the "Emerging Seven" (E7)—represented by China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey—surpassed the G7 for the first time in 2015, and by 2040, the economic scale of the former will be twice that of the latter. By 2050, six of the world’s top seven economies will be countries currently considered emerging. It is evident that the gravity of the world economy is shifting from the Atlantic region to the Pacific region, and the sustained growth of developing countries' strength will bring about a restructuring of North-South economic relations.
Second, the enhancement of political influence is the deep-seated reason for the rise of the "Global South." After WWII, under the hegemonic order, the "Global South" occupied the periphery of the international political landscape due to numerous challenges. On one hand, historical colonialism and imperialism's long-term exploitation and oppression of developing countries led to resource plunder and economic inequality; on the other hand, the unfairness and imbalance of the global economic system also left Southern countries at a disadvantage in international trade, squeezed by protectionist policies and unjust trade rules. To address these challenges, the vast number of developing countries have actively strengthened their discourse power and influence through two paths: South-South cooperation and regional/trans-regional integration. The first path is South-South cooperation, originating from the 1955 Bandung Conference, which involves cooperation among developing countries in economic, social, cultural, environmental, and technical fields. Through joint efforts to share knowledge, skills, and resources, they aim to achieve economic and social development goals. South-South cooperation is a product of the self-consciousness and awakening of developing countries. Guided by the "Bandung Spirit," it has undergone an extraordinary journey of over 60 years. The implementation of China's "Belt and Road Initiative" in 2013, aimed at prioritizing the economic and social development needs of "Southern countries" through enhanced connectivity, has been recognized by the United Nations as an important component of "21st-century South-South cooperation."
Another path forward is to promote the collective self-reliance of developing countries through regional integration and trans-regional consolidation. In Asia, numerous regional initiatives have been steadily advancing—for example, multilateral cooperation under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the ASEAN Plus Three (China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea) cooperation mechanism, and the East Asia Summit (EAS) cooperation mechanism. In Africa, on one hand, the process of regional economic integration has made substantive progress through entities such as the East African Community (EAC), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). On the other hand, driven by the African Union, significant progress has been achieved across multiple fields including the free movement of people within the continent, the reduction of tariff barriers, infrastructure construction, and the formation of transport corridors. In Latin America, while the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), and the Central American Integration System (SICA) continue to flourish, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC)—comprising 33 nations—has become an indispensable force in promoting South-South cooperation. Furthermore, at the global level, China has established "1+N" South-South multilateral cooperation platforms such as the China-ASEAN cooperation mechanism, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), the China-CELAC Forum, and the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF), achieving comprehensive coverage across all regions of the developing world. It is evident that the strengthening of the will and capacity for strategic autonomy among developing countries has enhanced their influence and power to shape the international political landscape.
Finally, the reform of the global governance system is the fundamental driver behind the rise of the "Global South." Currently, the global governance system dominated by Western developed countries is plagued by numerous unfair rules and systemic defects; the status, rights, and voice of the vast number of developing countries—who account for over 80% of the world's population—are not fully reflected or respected. First, major Western powers possess significant discourse power [4] in institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, leading certain countries to utilize these institutions to force developing nations into making compromises and concessions detrimental to their own interests. Second, a few major Western powers deliberately ignore or bypass international organizations represented by the United Nations, abusing their hegemony to conduct economic sanctions, political pressure, and armed attacks against other countries, thereby exacerbating global fragmentation and antagonism. Third, the current global governance system is more conducive to the global allocation of monopoly capital and the extraction of surplus profits, widening wealth and income inequality on a global scale. Finally, the current global governance system is unable to effectively respond to global issues such as climate financing, food security, debt relief, health issues, and the refugee crisis; the challenges of social, economic, and environmental vulnerability faced by developing countries are particularly prominent. In fact, some Western countries not only fail to assume their corresponding responsibilities but instead blame the root causes of these problems on the developing countries themselves.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rift between the West and the "Global South" has been widening. The alienation of many developing countries from the West did not begin with the Ukraine crisis; rather, it can be traced back to the West's disregard for the hardships faced by developing countries in their struggle against the pandemic. When the vast number of developing countries were in urgent need of aid from developed nations due to vaccine shortages, "Western countries closed their doors and looked only to themselves," ignoring the basic human rights of people in developing countries, such as the right to survival and the right to health. Regarding this, President Nana Akufo-Addo of Ghana criticized: "Africa is a forgotten continent; we can only save ourselves." [5] On the issue of climate change, the United States, the European Union, and other developed countries collectively pledged in 2009 to provide $100 billion annually in climate financing to low-income countries by 2020 for mitigation and adaptation measures. However, Western countries failed to fulfill their commitments; the financing amount paid in 2020 barely reached $83 billion, [6] violating their pledge to assume responsibility based on their historical emissions. The history of Western colonial plunder experienced by developing countries, combined with the disappointment and resentment toward the West accumulated over decades, serves as the "adhesive" driving the "Global South" countries to improve and transform the existing global governance system.
The World Impact of the Rise of the "Global South"
Although the "Global South" is not a homogeneous entity, its growth in population and economy, alongside its rising political influence, is making it a key force in reshaping the world order and transforming the global governance system. The rise of the "Global South" is an irreversible historical trend, signaling that the center of gravity in global geoeconomics and geopolitics is shifting from the "Global North" to the "Global South"—a transition process that will redefine the future direction of the world order. As the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to advance, the consolidation of a development consensus, the creation of development opportunities, and the sharing of development fruits will become the primary themes driving the deepening of South-South cooperation. Meanwhile, some Western countries, out of a need to maintain the hegemonic order, will increasingly intensify their efforts to divide and compete for the "Global South."
First, the international order and the global governance system are undergoing accelerated reconstruction. The so-called "rules-based international order" touted by the West is essentially a maintenance of a Western-led hegemonic international order, attempting to keep the "Global South" at the periphery of the world system and at the bottom of global value chains. The rise of the "Global South" brings about major changes in the international power structure; dissatisfaction with the Western-led international order will drive deep adjustments and transformations in the global governance system. Within the political and security spheres, the "Global South" will commit to the peaceful resolution of international disputes and promote the development of a "cooperative multipolar" order rather than a "coercive unipolar" order. In the Ukraine crisis, according to an analysis by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), although 52 countries representing 15% of the global population (the West and its allies) imposed sanctions on Russia, 127 countries remained neutral. The "Global South" maintaining its distance from the West on major issues has forced the US-led West to pay attention to the positions and propositions of the "Global South." Within the economic and financial spheres, BRICS countries are actively promoting "de-dollarization" reforms of the financial governance system and challenging neoliberal globalization. Measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), the BRICS nations' share of global GDP reached 31.5% in 2022, surpassing the G7's 30.7%. It is estimated that by 2030, the BRICS countries will contribute over 50% of global GDP, and the expanded BRICS will further increase this proportion. Since its inception in 2009, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has consistently pushed for the reform of several global institutions, including the World Bank and the IMF, striving to increase their own shareholding and representation. Since its establishment in 2015, the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) has provided $33 billion in loans to improve infrastructure connectivity in developing countries. Finally, in the field of climate change, the "Global South" is collectively promoting larger and more inclusive climate financing and climate action. At the 27th UN Climate Change Conference (COP27) held in November 2022, through the collective persistence and joint efforts of developing countries, developed nations committed to increasing support for developing countries in terms of funding, technology, and capacity building, and finally established the "Loss and Damage Fund" to protect vulnerable nations. This historic breakthrough has the potential to change the tone and process of global climate negotiations.
Second, the BRI creates new opportunities for the accelerated development of South-South cooperation. Developing countries have always been the foundation of China's diplomacy, and South-South cooperation is a vital component of China's all-round opening up to the outside world. The BRI is inextricably linked to South-South cooperation: the latter is the foundation for the implementation of the former, while the BRI provides South-South cooperation with new developmental opportunities. Development is the "master key" [7] to solving all human problems, yet relatively backward infrastructure and financing gaps are among the main bottlenecks hindering the economic development of "Global South" countries, causing their foreign trade to be 30% below potential and foreign direct investment (FDI) to be 70% below potential. For years, because the scale of infrastructure investment led by the Western G7 has been in decline, the infrastructure needs of BRI partner countries have faced a massive funding gap. According to estimates by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, by 2030, the total global infrastructure investment demand will reach $253 trillion, while the projected total funding supply is only $183 trillion. [8] The BRI focuses on the thorny issue of infrastructure connectivity; over the past decade, it has stimulated nearly $1 trillion in investment, implemented approximately 3,000 infrastructure projects, created 420,000 jobs for partner countries, helped 40 million people escape poverty, and driven overall regional economic development. The Global Development Initiative (GDI) is another important public product and cooperation platform proposed by China to the international community in September 2021. This initiative defines poverty reduction, food security, health, climate change, and green development as priority agendas, aiming to implement the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Standing at a new historical starting point, the GDI will create a synergistic effect with the BRI, together injecting new development momentum into South-South cooperation.
Third, the competition for and division of the "Global South" by external major powers is intensifying. As the influence of the "Global South" in the world landscape continues to rise, Western powers realize that without winning the support of more Southern countries, it will be difficult to maintain the hegemonic international order. Consequently, the US-led West is, on one hand, deliberately manipulating and distorting the concept and narrative of the "Global South," and on the other hand, attempting to co-opt and divide the "Global South" camp—even trying to foster certain countries to play the role of "Global South leaders" to achieve dominance and control over "Global South" affairs. Some American scholars have divided the post-Ukraine crisis world into three camps: the "Global West" with shared values, interests, and traditions; the "Global East" represented by China and Russia; and the "Global South" situated between the two. This "tripartite world" view treats the "Global South" as a hesitant camp that does not align with either East or West, while the competition between East and West for the "Global South" has driven its influence to rise sharply. Europe and Japan hold positions similar to the United States. Both the Munich Security Conference held in February 2023 and the G7 Hiroshima Summit in May gave high priority to "Global South" issues, yet when inviting representatives from developing countries to participate, they notably did not invite China. In its 2023 Diplomatic Bluebook, Japan introduced the term "Global South" for the first time and shifted its self-positioning from a "bridge between the West and Asia" to a "link between the West and the 'Global South'." In June 2023, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed the "Ending China's Developing Nation Status Act," intending to split the camp of developing countries and force China to assume international responsibilities beyond its capacity. Meanwhile, at the G20 New Delhi Summit in August 2023, the United States deliberately elevated India's leadership position within the "Global South" in an attempt to create a so-called "Sino-Indian leadership struggle." In response to the West's efforts to divide and co-opt, the Havana Declaration adopted by the "Group of 77 and China" summit in September 2023 incorporated multiple Chinese concepts and propositions, clearly signaling the "Global South's" collective self-reliance.
The rise of the "Global South" is no longer a geopolitical imagination or an aspiration for order transformation, but an unstoppable objective reality and an evolving historical tide. The rise of the "Global South" concept bypasses and breaks the binary opposition [8] narratives of history based on "center and periphery," "East and West," and "First World and Third World." It serves to consolidate the collective strength of emerging economies and the vast number of developing countries to build a peaceful, secure, and stable world landscape. The "Global South" is not an international organization or a political entity, but a community of development with diverse values, varying economic scales, and multifaceted cultural traditions. Out of the need for hegemony maintenance, the US-led West will not abandon its competition for, co-option of, and division of the "Global South" nations. In response, "Global South" countries should consolidate consensus through the "Bandung Spirit" of unity, friendship, and cooperation, becoming a mainstay [9] in promoting development cooperation and safeguarding fairness and justice within the historical process of the deepening evolution of South-South cooperation.