Yang Huicong: A Contemporary Examination of "Fortune-telling": Theoretical Evolution, Pseudoscience Essence, and Coping Strategies
In today's highly developed internet era, fortune-telling, divination, and metaphysics have become a trend in online discourse that cannot be ignored. If in the past fortune-telling and divination were believed only by those with low scientific literacy, prevalent superstitious thoughts, and "ignorant and backward" dispositions, then currently, fortune-telling and divination have "captured" the favor of a large number of highly educated and intellectually sophisticated groups. This phenomenon indicates that contemporary superstitions regarding fortune-telling manifest characteristics different from those of the past. Although some studies have explained from sociological and psychological perspectives why highly intellectual groups—who already possess high scientific literacy—still seek out fortune-telling, they still fail to clearly explain why this segment of the population actually believes in it. The reason is that existing research approaches the problem from external mechanisms, which starts by presetting the conclusion that "fortune-telling is false" and "fortune-telling is superstition." However, the highly intellectual groups who believe in divination precisely reject this preset; their cognition of fortune-telling is, in their view, rational. This suggests that a deep understanding of the modern fortune-telling phenomenon cannot remain stuck in the old mindset of simply linking fortune-telling with "superstition," "stupidity," and "ignorance." We must move further from the external to the internal, exploring the deep-seated psychological identity mechanisms of the target groups, thereby providing more accurate theoretical evidence and practical guidance for improving the scientific and cultural literacy of the whole society and eradicating superstition.
I. The Origin and Theoretical Evolution of "Fortune-telling Arts"
(1) Pre-Qin to the Qin and Han Dynasties: Early Forms of Divination
Predicting the future has been a tireless pursuit of humanity since its inception. This is driven not only by the instinct to seek benefit and avoid harm [1], but also reflects the human pursuit of freedom and the desire to master one's own destiny. In the absence of natural and social scientific knowledge, obtaining "revelations from Heaven" through divination to foresee the consequences of decisions became a choice of necessity for the ancients. Early divination in the pre-Qin period and earlier generally had the following characteristics.
First, the content of divination primarily concerned state affairs related to the rulers. Sima Qian stated in the "Biographies of Tortoise-shell and Mugwort Diviners" in the Records of the Grand Historian (Shiji): "Since ancient times, when sage kings were about to establish a state or receive the Mandate [2], or initiate great undertakings, did they not always treasure divination to assist in their virtuous path? ... When a king decides on various doubts, he consults divination and decides by the milfoil and tortoise; this is an unchangeable Way." This passage shows that before the Han Dynasty, divination held a vital position in state affairs. Every major national event required divination to assist in decision-making. Examining the divination cases handed down from before the Han, most are related to political events, such as "Dong Yin divining on Chong'er’s return to his state," "Lu’s campaign against Yue divined by the breaking of the tripod’s leg," and "Emperor Wu of Han’s divination on campaigning against the Xiongnu."
Second, the process of divination was complex, with specific rituals and rules. Plastromancy (tortoise-shell divination) was an early form that involved heating tortoise shells to produce cracks, which were then interpreted as divine guidance. As the mainstream form during the Shang and Zhou dynasties, its process was tedious and highly ritualized: first, the materials required specific sizes of tortoise shells or bovine scapulae, with strict regulations for selection and preservation. Second, the divination had to be conducted by professional diviners, accompanied by prayer rituals. Third, the results were specially preserved under a strict archival system. Fourth, major events required repeated divisional sessions. The Book of Changes (Zhou Yi) also records the so-called "Great Expansion Method" (Dayan shifa), using 49 yarrow (milfoil) stalks as tools. Through the four steps of "dividing into two, hanging one, counting by fours, and returning the remainder," [3] hexagram signs were generated, replacing the physical processing of shells and bones. The results were then interpreted based on the hexagram and line statements (guaci and yaoci).
Third, the results of divination were often contradictory, with different interpretations of the same hexagram. Divination is essentially the collection of random symbols followed by an interpretation based on certain rules. During the same period as the Zhou Yi, other methods existed such as wind and astral divination. Their essence was identical; the only difference lay in whether the symbols were hexagrams, bone cracks, wind directions, or the starry sky. However, the methods of interpretation were varied. Even facing the same symbols, different people held different understandings and reached different conclusions. For example, the School Sayings of Confucius (Kongzi Jiayu) records that Confucius divined the "Bì" (Adornment) hexagram. His disciples thought it was auspicious, but Confucius viewed the "ornamental" nature of Bì as an inauspicious sign. Clearly, this blurred mode of prediction was actually just a form of psychological comfort, unable to satisfy people's genuine need to seek fortune and avoid disaster.
(2) Tang and Song Dynasties: Expansion of Scope and Systematic Theory
With the development of the times, "fortune-telling arts" increasingly moved from official circles to the common people, showing a trend toward simplification, secularization, and systematization. First, rituals and calculation methods were simplified. Elements such as the Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches [4] and the Yin-Yang and Five Elements [5] were introduced into the divination system. This practice overcame the drawbacks of rituals being tied to specific ceremonies, greatly simplifying procedures and improving efficiency. The introduction of the Stems, Branches, and Five Elements also made interpretation more unified and standardized: "combination" (hé) of stems/branches meant good fortune, while "punishment" (xíng), "harm" (hài), and "clash" (chōng) meant misfortune. In the Five Elements, "generation" (shēng) was auspicious and "overcoming" (kè) was inauspicious. These were fixed rules, reducing the room for a diviner's personal interpretation and making the practice appear more deterministic.
Second, the scope of use expanded to cover all aspects of social life. Whether through increased efficiency or increased certainty, the ultimate goal was to meet the living needs of the people. The Compendium of Administrative Law of the Six Divisions of the Tang Dynasty (Tang Liudian) pointed out: "Of the various occult divinations for fortune and misfortune, there are nine categories to resolve the hesitations of the myriad people: first, marriage; second, childbirth; third, calendars; fourth, housing; fifth, fate and wealth (lùmìng); sixth, official appointments; seventh, sacrifices; eighth, illness; and ninth, funerals." It is evident that in daily life, consulting divination to resolve doubts was a universal practice. The Song Dynasty text Duàn'àn (Case Decider), regarding the "Six Ren" method (Liùrénshù), recorded divination practices covering weather, home, career, marriage, pregnancy, wealth, travel, lost items, and illness, demonstrating its wide application in the lives of ordinary people.
Third, "fortune-telling arts" began to be theorized, with the emergence of classic texts systematically expounding these theories. Before the Tang and Song, while the practice existed, techniques were limited to oral transmission between master and apprentice; no works provided theoretical demonstration. The Sui, Tang, and Song periods saw the creation of foundational works. Xiao Ji's General Principles of the Five Elements (Wǔxíng Dàyì) in the Sui Dynasty systematically elaborated historical views on the Five Elements and linked them to fate-calculation (lùmìng), summarizing various calculation methods. Xu Daofu of the Tang systematically summarized the "Six Ren" method in the Mirror of the Great Six Ren Mind (Dàliùrén Xīnjìng), which became a touchstone for later practitioners. Xu Ziping of the Northern Song systematically discussed the "Eight Characters" (Bāzì) [6] method in Yuanhai Ziping, detailing metaphysical foundations, conceptual definitions, and calculation methods.
The development of "fortune-telling arts" is inseparable from the improvement of productive forces, the enrichment of social life, the rise in general literacy, and technological progress. In periods of low productive forces, agricultural production comprised the entirety of human activity; empirical knowledge of farming was generally sufficient to guide life, and fortune-telling had little utility for the masses. However, the development of productive forces liberated people's time, allowing them to engage in cultural and commercial activities. These activities possessed a degree of contingency and unpredictability, leading people to seek certainty through divination. Additionally, the Sui, Tang, and Song saw the creation and development of the Imperial Examination system [7]. On one hand, this gave commoners a chance to enter the bureaucracy through study, raising overall literacy and counseling the formation of "fortune-telling theory." On the other hand, the vast uncertainty faced by examinees stimulated the growth of these arts. Furthermore, advances in papermaking and printing provided the material basis for the recording and dissemination of these texts.
(3) From the Ming and Qing Onward: Refinement of Theory and the "Contention of a Hundred Schools"
The Ming and Qing dynasties were periods of flourishing for Chinese "fortune-telling arts." With the further refinement of the Imperial Examination system, fortune-telling was no longer the exclusive monopoly of itinerant "itinerant quacks" (jiānghú shùshì). Large numbers of intellectuals joined the "research ranks" of fortune-telling, writing books and formulating theories. The degree of theorization and systematization reached a high level, effectively becoming a professional "discipline." Works from this period reached new heights in the comprehensiveness of data collection, the rigor of theoretical structure, and the dialectical nature of their arguments. A famous work in the field of numerology is the Compendium of the Three Fates (Sānmìng Tōnghuì), compiled by the Ming Dynasty Jinshi [8] Wan Minying. The book first argues that destiny originates from a person's "innate endowment," providing a metaphysical philosophical justification for fate from the perspective of the "unity of Heaven and humanity" (Tiānrén Héyī). "Fate is endowed by Yin and Yang; at the beginning of birth, it cannot be moved by man... there must be those born rich and noble, those born to long life or early death, and those born poor and lowly." Next, it discusses the basic concepts for calculation—the Stems and Branches, the Five Elements, and the "Gods and Daemons" (shénshà)—explaining their origins and meanings. Finally, it discusses calculation methods for daily matters like temperament, illness, and wealth, and includes important historical essays. Most subsequent works followed this framework, presenting a complete theoretical system.
Internal to "fortune-telling arts," there existed divergences in views and theoretical debates, characterisic of a "contention of a hundred schools." For example, Zhang Nan's Profound Study of the Divine Peak (Shénfēng Tōngkǎo) in the Ming Dynasty was a "polemical" work in numerology, refuting what he considered past errors and proposing his own views. These disputes included differences in basic theory (how Stems and Branches interact, the status of Five Elements) which led to different conclusions. They also included differences in calculation methods—some scholars argued for focusing solely on the "generation and overcoming" of the Five Elements, while others advocated for a multi-pronged approach. When debating, these scholars cited both metaphysical principles from ancient sages and real-life case studies (zhànyàn). These disputes led to the differentiation of "paradigms" and "schools." Within "Eight Characters" (Bāzì) divination alone, there are the "Strength and Weakness School," the "Structure School," and the "Climatic Adjustment School," each with its own followers. After a thousand years of development, the books written by Chinese literati on fortune-telling are as "numerous as the sweat of oxen or rafters in a house" [9].
Due to the unscientific nature of "fortune-telling arts," no school can actually make it a stable or correct method of prediction. However, many intellectuals still believe in it and pour into the field. Even today, the theoretical evolution of "fortune-telling arts" is "unfinished." For example, some scholars use latest results in physics to argue for fortune-telling from a quantum mechanics perspective—the "Holographic Universe Theory" being representative—positing that all things are interconnected. This is actually a modern repackaging of the ancient Chinese concept of "unity of Heaven and humanity." Others attempt to refine the technical calculation level by proposing new computational methods.
In summary, "fortune-telling arts" are a form of "prediction technology" that developed alongside the productive forces to provide references for decision-making. Social progress provided the material conditions for theoretical refinement, and the entry of highly cultured intellectuals into the field gave it an orientation toward "disciplinarity," systematization, and rationality, increasingly donning a "cloak of science."
In traditional society, due to the segregation of social strata, poor information flow, and low overall cultural levels, the academic research of intellectuals into fortune-telling was difficult for the masses to understand. Therefore, the public's cognition remained at an irrational stage; those who believed in fortune-telling were often the most easily superstitious. However, in the internet age, this "cloak of science" has attracted a group of curious learners and researchers, and fortune-telling activities have taken on characteristics unlike those of the past.
II. Contemporary Manifestations and Main Characteristics of Fortune-Telling Activities
When fortune-telling is mentioned, the image that often comes to mind is that of a roadside fortune-teller. But in the internet age, cyberspace has become the primary arena, and the activity has taken on an entirely different appearance.
(1) Large-scale Industry Covering All Market Levels
Internet fortune-telling has transcended the geographical and temporal constraints that bound traditional divination activities, allowing for real-time online operations. Consequently, the business scope for practitioners of fortune-telling and divination has expanded. As long as there is sufficient traffic, a large customer base can be attracted. The output value of the fortune-telling industry has developed rapidly in the internet age. According to the owner of a Zhouyi [10] service platform:
"China has a population of about 1.4 billion, with target users aged 16–50 accounting for about 45%. Among them, about 16% are paying users, with an average annual minimum spend of 1,000 yuan on divination and fortune-telling. Summed up, this is a market exceeding 100 billion yuan." Many have recognized the profit-making potential of the fortune-telling industry, establishing companies to provide related services and securing significant investment. According to statistics, between 2014 and 2018, approximately 20 divination and numerology companies received investment, with the highest reaching 217.5 million yuan, while others ranged from several million to tens of millions.
The reason the fortune-telling industry is so profitable is also related to its broad market coverage. Put simply, fortune-telling finds its audience and consumers across every consumption stratum. In current fortune-telling activities, one form targets the low-end market through programmed fortune-telling based on AI technology. Consumers simply enter the required information on a webpage, and the program automatically performs the calculations. This mode of fortune-telling is usually inexpensive (mostly figures like 38, 68, or 98 yuan), and the results obtained are relatively vague. However, due to the low price, many people pay with a "trial-and-error" or curious entertainment attitude. Such fortune-telling typically profits through high volume ("walking the volume"), and their advertisements are found in every corner of the internet. For example, entering "fortune-telling" (算命) into a Baidu search will trigger related links. Furthermore, links or advertisements directing users to fortune-telling pages exist on various other websites.
Another form is the high-end fortune-telling industry, where fortune-tellers perform manual divination based on their mastery of "fortune-telling arts." Because this mode involves close-range, one-on-one, and targeted communication with the consumer, the results are relatively specific. Correspondingly, the fees for this mode are higher, ranging from hundreds to thousands of yuan depending on the fortune-teller’s skill, reputation, and service duration. Some divinations involving major business decisions can even command exorbitant prices of tens or even hundreds of thousands of yuan. Those who purchase these services are often groups with relatively affluent material conditions, such as civil servants, doctors, lawyers, and business owners. Comparatively, people have a higher degree of recognition for the second mode, considering it "more technical" and "more accurate," while regarding the first mode as merely "giving some ambiguous statements." Some consumers with long-term needs for fortune-telling even establish continuous monthly or yearly contact with trusted masters. The fortune-telling masters whom political and business personnel associate with, as revealed in many news reports, basically belong to this category. These practitioners often accumulate large networks of human relations through word-of-mouth recommendations, enjoy high social status, and easily amass great wealth. Some political and business figures can even construct specific social circles through these fortune-telling masters.
(2) The formation of fixed communities to carry out fortune-telling learning and exchange activities.
Due to developments in information technology, particularly the evolution of e-books, ancient Chinese texts related to "fortune-telling arts" have become accessible to more people. Consequently, many believe that because documentary support exists, "fortune-telling arts" are real and possess educational value. These learners, who believe in the reality of "fortune-telling arts," utilize forums, groups, and public platforms as bases to organize learning communities, engaging in activities such as formalizing master-disciple relationships, recruiting students, and conducting lessons. Learning communities for "fortune-telling arts" can be divided into two types: one is centralized, built around a core fortune-telling master with a certain reputation in the industry, where the master acts as a teacher and the other learners are disciples or students. The other is decentralized, consisting of exchange forums organized by learners themselves, where they share learning insights and exchange experiences in divination.
The teaching of "fortune-telling arts" has itself developed into an industry. Many fortune-telling masters conduct teaching businesses alongside their divination services. In some cases, the income from teaching is even more profitable than the fortune-telling itself. The price of instruction depends on the industrial model, the master's skill level, and their fame. Some teaching is "volume-based," accumulating massive traffic through group chats and purchased advertisements to obtain high revenue via low unit prices. Others are individual operations where the master teaches personally; these are more expensive, with courses lasting a few days costing several thousand or even tens of thousands of yuan.
Fortune-telling instruction and the practice itself share a relationship of mutual promotion and influence. On one hand, seekers who have experienced "divine verification" [11] often develop an interest in the "fortune-telling arts" themselves, recognizing their authenticity and efficacy, which leads to the desire to learn the craft to master their own destiny and subsequent participation in learning communities. On the other hand, those who participate in learning activities are often loyal believers in the craft; when they encounter confusion or uncertainty in life, they often seek help from professional masters because their own skills are insufficient to resolve their doubts. That is to say, there is an extremely high overlap between seekers and learners, and these two roles are easily interchangeable. The tight integration of learning and practice enhances user stickiness and reinforces the practitioners' trust in the "fortune-telling arts" themselves.
(3) The trend of younger, highly educated, and rationalized fortune-telling demographics.
Currently, the fortune-telling demographic is becoming increasingly young. Some scholars have measured the age distribution of China's largest fortune-telling forum and found the average age to be 27, proving that the current online fortune-telling group is dominated by young people. Through research into several learning communities, the author found that university and graduate students account for a significant proportion of learners, and there are even some high school students. Young people are often curious about novelties and more likely to encounter metaphysics such as "fortune-telling arts"; being familiar with the internet, they can quickly find corresponding online communities and establish links with other learners.
According to relevant research and reports, the main audience for fortune-telling and divination consists of people with high levels of education and knowledge. According to one long-time practitioner, his clients are basically "upper-middle class," covering corporate managers, civil servants, university teachers, and doctors. Most of the fortune-tellers the author encountered possess a certain level of education, good reading ability in classical Chinese, and many hold degrees above the undergraduate level, including some overseas-educated masters and doctoral graduates. Furthermore, social recruitment for learning classes focused on "fortune-telling arts" mainly targets "social elites" in corporate management, law, and civil service. These phenomena indicate that appearing in fortune-telling activities—whether through practice or study—is a phenomenon of high-knowledge orientation.
Corresponding to the younger and more educated audience, another characteristic of current fortune-telling activities is "rationalization." As mentioned earlier, those currently involved are groups possessing a degree of scientific literacy, critical thinking, and rational cognitive abilities. Their attitude toward fortune-telling is no longer "blind faith," but rather a screened and selective belief that serves their own rational purposes. Seekers who turn to fortune-telling do not expect the craft to help them get rich or change their destiny; rather, they hope to solve specific problems at a particular moment—for instance, what difficulties they might face in an interview and how to prepare in advance. For learners, the goal is simply to master a method of observing their own destiny to gain a degree of predictability and achieve the goal of "seeking the auspicious and avoiding the baleful." In the eyes of contemporary people, seeking help from fortune-telling does not mean giving up on effort, but rather choosing the timing and direction of that effort more effectively.
The emergence of this phenomenon inevitably raises a question: why do people with high scientific literacy and rich knowledge reserves also succumb to the superstition of fortune-telling? In fact, modern people are willing to believe in fortune-telling largely because they do not consider it a superstition, but rather a "science." The "science" here does not refer to the "computer fortune-telling" or "scientific fortune-telling" mentioned in some studies—which use modern scientific tools—but rather the belief that "fortune-telling is built upon the foundation of scientific thinking and scientific methods." Opinions collected by scholars through surveys suggest: "Zhouyi is a science; it is a precious heritage left by China over many years. It concentrates the wisdom of the Chinese nation." "Our fengshui [12] studies all conform to the laws of physics. It is not superstition; if it has been passed down for a thousand years, it must have value." Some practitioners even use the achievements of modern physics as endorsements. They argue that the development of modern physics, especially "quantum mechanics" and "relativity," proves the legitimacy of "fortune-telling arts." Among their claims: quantum mechanics confirms the "unity of heaven and humanity" [13]; although hexagrams do not share a causal relationship with personal events in the sense of classical mechanics, an "entanglement" relationship exists, thus providing the function of predicting luck. The spacetime view of relativity suggests that the information displayed by hexagrams is no longer an unfounded unknown, but a known existence that has already become reality in another spacetime; therefore, the content of fortune-telling is objective and certain, not speculative or imaginary.
Precisely because of the existence of these views, two completely different trends of thought have formed around fortune-telling theories, both of which consider the other to be wrong, superstitious, and ignorant. Opponents of fortune-telling need no further explanation, while proponents often set out from the theoretical foundations of fortune-telling and their own practical experiences to prove its reality. This indicates that the psychological mechanism of belief in fortune-telling has completely changed, shifting from the irrational, unscientific "superstition" of the past to a rational "belief" derived from identifying it as science. This shift means that if we wish to persuade modern people to abandon the superstition of fortune-telling through education and reasoning, we cannot stop at external criticism and analysis. We must penetrate deep into its internal theory to explain the unscientific and pseudo-scientific nature of "fortune-telling arts." Only then can we improve the level of anti-superstition education, establish true scientific thinking, and raise scientific literacy.
III. The Pseudo-scientific Essence of "Fortune-telling Arts"
The so-called "scientific" cloak of "fortune-telling arts" cannot hide its pseudo-scientific essence. While the theoretical foundations of "fortune-telling arts" seem impeccable and the calculation methods appear rigorous, even providing "verification" through feedback systems, careful analysis reveals that the evidence used to prove its "scientific nature" contains unresolvable contradictions. This determines that "fortune-telling arts" are not true science, but deceptive pseudo-science.
(1) Contradictions in Theoretical Foundations
The reason "fortune-telling arts" claim that destiny can be grasped is based on the subjectively established theories of "innate endowment" and the "unity of heaven and humanity." The theoretical essence is the belief that symbols formed in specific time and space can synchronously reflect the trajectory of a person's destiny, to which modern people have added a cloak of modern physics. However, using the theories of "innate endowment" and the "unity of heaven and humanity" to explain the rationality of fortune-telling falls into self-contradiction.
The theory of "innate endowment" holds that a person's birth time determines their destiny for life; thus, the birth time is used to construct a "Eight Characters" (Bazi) [14], "Life Chart," or "Star Chart" for calculation. However, if different people are born at the exact same time, does that imply they have the same endowment and thus the same destiny? This is the famous "Four-Identical Eight Characters" (四同八字) problem within fortune-telling circles. One view holds that people born at the same time with the same Bazi do indeed have broadly similar destinies, differing only in magnitude and quantity. This view has been refuted by practical examples; people born at the same time can have vast differences in their industries, levels of wealth, and health conditions. Another view suggests that the problem of "Four-Identical Eight Characters" exists because the birth time is not specific enough, being accurate only to one shichen [15] (two hours); if calculated precisely to the hour, minute, and second, it would suffice to predict destiny accurately. Whether this view is correct or not, it effectively negates the scientific validity of current "fortune-telling arts," because it essentially affirms that "destiny cannot be calculated accurately based only on the year, month, day, and hour of birth." Until the "fortune-telling arts" develop a more precise model, the practice remains erroneous and useless.
The currently more influential view...
The "defense" comes from Ji Xiaolan [16] of the Qing Dynasty. In his Notes from the Thatched Abode of Close Observations (Yuewei caotang biji), he recorded a case of two individuals with identical Bazi [17] but different fates. One was his nephew and the other was the son of his servant. Both were born in the same year, month, day, hour, minute, and even second, yet one was the offspring of the official nobility while the other belonged to the servant class; their fates were clearly worlds apart. However, Ji Xiaolan observed that although his nephew came from an excellent background, he died young, whereas the servant’s son lived a very long life. Based on this, Ji argued that a person’s birth time stipulates the "total volume" of their destiny, but the specific areas where this "total volume" manifests are not fixed. Any bit of good fortune in life is a consumption of this "total volume"; when the "total volume" is exhausted, the person's good fortune disappears. He wrote: "Is it not that the emoluments bestowed by this fate have only this fixed amount? The nephew was born into wealth and rank, so his consumption was exhausted early; the servant's son was born into poverty and low status, so his consumption was minimal, and thus his emoluments were not yet spent?" Specific to Ji Xiaolan’s own case, the total volume of good fortune for his nephew and the servant was identical, but the nephew’s portion was applied to his birth and noble status, while the servant’s was applied to longevity.
Although theoretically a powerful explanation, Ji Xiaolan’s argument is actually a negation of contemporary "fortune-telling arts." The reason is that current "fortune-telling arts" still rely solely on the year, month, day, and hour of birth to infer a person's destiny, yet they cannot know where this good fortune will actually manifest. If the location of the manifestation is unknown, how can one speak of knowing one's destiny? Some practitioners attempt to answer this by suggesting that other variables should be introduced into the calculation, such as geographical orientation or the color of one's clothing. But this creates a contradiction, as such an explanation applies only to the individual practitioner and not to the profession as a whole. Suppose two people with identical Bazi respectively find two different fortune-tellers for a reading. Since the two fortune-tellers are unaware of each other's existence, they will inevitably use general methods to perform the calculation and arrive at the same destiny, yet we know that the fates of these two people are certainly different.
The problem with the theory of "Unity of Heaven and Humanity" [18] is similar to that of the theory of "Innate Endowment." Even if we accept the premise of the "Unity of Heaven and Humanity"—namely, that destiny can indeed be inferred from the hexagrams [19] of a specific time and space—how should it be handled if different people ask about the same matter using the same hexagram? Some practitioners still claim that other variables must be sought, such as birth year, gender, or orientation. But assuming two practitioners are unaware of each other's existence, would they reach the same conclusion when faced with the same question from the same hexagram? If not, how can the scientific nature and uniqueness of the calculation's conclusion be guaranteed?
(2) Uncertainty in the Methods of Calculation
The symbolic system used in the calculations of "fortune-telling arts" is a composite system of concepts with multiple symbolic meanings. The advantage of this symbolic system is that, in theory, it can calculate so-called "details"—that is, the specific scenarios in which good or ill luck manifest. This marketing can attract a large number of people interested in "fortune-telling arts" to learn, research, and experiment. However, this promotion is purely theoretical; being possible in theory does not mean it can be achieved in reality. In the practice of "fortune-telling arts," the composite and manifold nature of the symbolic system becomes the source of its ambiguity and uncertainty.
First is the uncertainty of individual symbols themselves. In "fortune-telling arts," a single symbol has multidimensional "image-meanings" (xiangyi), some of which are contradictory. Take the symbol "Official-Ghost" (Guan-Gui) as an example: its image-meanings include pressure, illness, pain, restriction, official career, position, and husband. We find that the same "Official-Ghost" symbol can simultaneously represent information of good or bad omen. Representing illness is an ill omen; representing an official career is a good omen. Thus, in practice, if one divines the "Official-Ghost," is it to say this person will have an official career, or that they will have an illness? No one knows.
Second is the uncertainty of symbolic combinations. In "fortune-telling arts," even if the meaning of an individual symbol is determined, the combination of symbols remains uncertain. Take the symbol "White Tiger" (Baihu) for example: in "fortune-telling arts," it represents illness, injury, and funeral rites; divining the "White Tiger" is an omen of great calamity. However, in the theory of "fortune-telling arts," the usage of the "White Tiger" also changes. If the White Tiger is restrained, the calamity is less severe. This seems relatively clear, but when "White Tiger" is combined with "Prosperity or Decline" (Wang-Shuai), it is no longer clear. Some views hold that when the "White Tiger" is combined with "Prosperity," it means this tiger is powerful and ferocious, and thus at its most dangerous and most likely to harm people. Yet there is an opposite view: when the "White Tiger" is combined with "Decline," it represents the tiger being in a state of "hunger," and only then is the White Tiger at its most dangerous; conversely, a "Prosperous" White Tiger represents a tiger that is satiated and will not harm anyone. The reason these two opposite views exist is that "Prosperity" and "Decline" utilize different image-meanings: the former understands them from the perspective of "magnitude of strength," while the latter understands them from the perspective of "degree of satiety." Theoretically, both arguments are valid, yet they are mutually contradictory. If this theory is used for guidance, it is impossible to reach a deterministic conclusion.
Third is the uncertainty of applying symbols to real life. "Fortune-telling arts" maintain that the same hexagram has different meanings for different people, different matters, and different eras. In practice, this also causes ambiguity in inference. For instance, if a person holding office comes for divination and gets "Official-Ghost," it does not mean they will fall ill, but rather that they will be promoted. However, if a person without an official post gets "Official-Ghost," it means they are going to get sick. The problem is that this requires comprehensive knowledge of the querent's information, which in practice makes the divination process infinitely complex and fundamentally unfeasible. This dictates that although the theory of "fortune-telling arts" appears sophisticated, in practice it still relies on "guessing" and "bluffing" based on intuition, never actually utilizing the complexity claimed by these theories.
In the practice of "fortune-telling arts," the result of this uncertainty is that many practitioners claim they can accurately predict destiny and provide related cases as support. However, these cases possess no replicability for other practitioners because different practitioners have different understandings and applications of the symbols. Among various lines of thought that conform to the calculation methods of "fortune-telling arts," there is often only one that corresponds to the reality of the outcome, but before the outcome occurs, no one knows which line of thought will correspond. Consequently, many students of "fortune-telling arts" report that in actual divination practice, there is a frequent state of "uncertainty," "fear to make a judgment," and "inaccurate reading." It is often a case of "post-hoc rationalization being well-founded and logical, but having no idea how to proceed when getting the hexagram beforehand." This situation exists precisely because the symbols and operational rules of "fortune-telling arts" are mutually contradictory yet self-consistent, making them impossible to grasp. Many practitioners who claim to be "divine calculators" merely take the cases they "got right" to boast loudly, conducting "explanations" and "debriefs" with great ceremony, while not breathing a word about their incorrect cases. Clearly, this method of calculation—characterized by ambiguity, uncertainty, and multiple interpretations—has not made "fortune-telling arts" more scientific; on the contrary, it has moved them further away from science.
(3) The Ambiguity of Verification Methods
The philosopher Karl Popper argued: "The criterion of the scientific status of a theory is its falsifiability, or refutability, or testability." This so-called "falsifiability" means that a scientific theory must be refutable and fallible; otherwise, it is not science. For example, theology is not science because the "God" or deities claimed by theology cannot be falsified through experience; hence, it can only be called a faith. Viewed by this standard, some techniques claiming to be "fortune-telling" indeed fail to meet this criterion, which can be explained by the "Barnum Effect" identified in psychology. These fortune-telling techniques provide only abstract, macroscopic answers that anyone hearing them would feel apply to themselves. In such cases, there is no talk of verification or falsification, and thus they can only be seen as a form of entertainment. However, the seemingly "scientific" "fortune-telling arts" we analyzed above are not subject to this critique. These "fortune-telling arts" claim that their calculated results are falsifiable—right is right and wrong is wrong—and thus possess scientificity. This statement is reasonable from an intuitive perspective, as every judgment given by a fortune-teller can indeed be empirically confirmed. But looking at the practice of "fortune-telling arts," even if a fortune-teller gets it wrong every day, there are still loyal believers who trust in the scientific nature and accuracy of the "fortune-telling arts." Aside from the aforementioned "scientific appearance," an important reason for this is the ambiguity of verification methods.
First, as another philosopher of science, Imre Lakatos, said: "Popper’s criterion ignores the remarkable 'tenacity' of scientific theories. Scientists have thick skins. They do not abandon a theory merely because facts contradict it. They usually invent some rescue hypothesis to explain what they then call a mere anomaly." A theory has a certain tolerance for any negative cases. When a negative case appears, it does not necessarily represent the failure of the theory, but rather the possible presence of variables outside that theory. As long as the theory finds the problem and corrects it, the theory remains valid. In fact, the various uncertain calculation methods mentioned above can provide remedies for wrong results. For instance, there might be a deviation in the understanding of symbols, an unclear grasp of the background of the matter, or a failure to consider other information about the querent. In this way, even if an error occurs, as long as a reason is found, it will not be viewed as a challenge to the "fortune-telling arts."
Second, from the practitioner's perspective, it is impossible to distinguish whether the result of a divination was "calculated" or "guessed."
We all know that humans have many ways of knowing the world, all of which can yield results with a certain degree of accuracy. For example, elders in a village often predict the development trends of local affairs based on experience. In the predictive behavior of daily life, experience and theory are consistent; theory is the generalization and summary of experience. However, "fortune-telling arts," as a completely independent linguistic system, have no relationship with experience whatsoever, yet the act of prediction cannot avoid a relationship with experience. This means that for the practitioner, there are two sets of predictive modes: one is the theoretical prediction of "fortune-telling arts," and the other is direct empirical prediction based on experience. Empirical prediction can provide supplements to theoretical prediction, or even become the primary method. For example, someone who comes to ask about a matter is bound to be uncertain and lacking confidence; therefore, the probability of predicting an ill omen is often much higher than a good one. Thus, even setting aside the theory of "fortune-telling arts," the accuracy rate of blind guessing can reach over fifty percent. For the practitioner, because both systems are in their mind, they actually have no way of saying whether they "calculated" correctly or simply "guessed" correctly based on experience.
Third, from the querent's perspective, it is impossible to distinguish whether a correct divination result was "inevitable" or "accidental."
In reality, a practitioner serves many querents. Even if the practitioner cannot calculate correctly, there are times they guess correctly. Consequently, due to the sheer size of the base numbers, there will inevitably be a querent who encounters a "divinely accurate" situation where their past experiences are perfectly described. Because such situations shatter common sense, they are often excessively promoted by the querent, while the more numerous, silent experiences of incorrect calculations are ignored. The result is that the correctly-read querent believes they have met a "master," while the querent without such an experience simply feels they have not yet encountered the "master." The author once interviewed a querent who had a "divinely accurate" experience. According to her, the other party, using only her Bazi, stated her personality, profession, and life trajectory, and even specified the exact timing of her marriage and starting work without the slightest error, which shocked her. Yet when she recommended a friend for a prediction, the practitioner's reading was a total mess.
In summary, due to the contradictoriness of their theoretical foundation, the uncertainty of their calculation methods, and the ambiguity of their verification means, "fortune-telling arts" are not true science, but a deceptive pseudoscience.
IV. Resisting the Spiritual Temptation of "Fortune-telling Arts" through Atheist Propaganda and Education
The contemporary forms of "fortune-telling" demonstrate that it is no easy task for scientific rationality to triumph over superstition. As the times progress and science advances, people's scientific and cultural literacy and rational character have improved; however, superstition is simultaneously adopting more concealed and deceptive forms. Under such circumstances, if our anti-superstition education remains confined to teaching only the most basic scientific concepts, it will be unable to meet the requirements of the era and society, nor will it truly eradicate superstitious phenomena. Only by strengthening education in Marxist atheism and resisting the spiritual temptation of "fortune-telling" can we guide the formation of a rational, proactive, and upward-striving social mentality and atmosphere.
First, we must clearly explain the essence and function of fortune-telling from the perspective of historical materialism. As previously stated, "fortune-telling" was an attempt by ancient human beings to understand the laws of world change and predict the future during a period when natural and social sciences were underdeveloped. Its emergence, development, and promotion were closely linked to the development of social productive forces, technological progress, and the improvement of social and cultural levels; it constitutes a part of humanity’s primitive knowledge system. The theory of "fortune-telling" is not mysterious and can be understood and recognized through rationality. Successive generations of "fortune-telling masters," such as Li Chunfeng, Yuan Tiangang, and Liu Bowen [20], were not "god-like figures" transcending the bounds of common sense, but were merely masters and practitioners of fortune-telling techniques. Furthermore, researchers of fortune-telling throughout history never brought this technique to perfection; it contains various contradictions and conflicts, and its accuracy and utility are, in fact, not high. Looking at historical cases of fortune-telling practice, we can also find that its significance in guiding practice beforehand is negligible; it is only when looking back after the fact that the so-called "correctness" of the time can be verified. This means that those who seek help from "fortune-telling" do not obtain useful conclusions, but merely receive psychological comfort. Therefore, by viewing "fortune-telling" historically, one will recognize its actual utility, avoid harboring excessive expectations for it, and cease to view it as a panacea for achieving success in life.
Second, we must promote the deepening of the popularization of science. The road to fortune-telling is not paved by ignorance, but rather by the insufficient popularization of scientific knowledge. Currently, there is an urgent need to improve the level of scientific popularization and promote its deepening. On one hand, emphasis must be placed on cultivating scientific thinking and scientific methods. Science is regarded as a discipline that reveals the laws of development of things. As the result of scientific activity, scientific theories are often considered to have correctly revealed these laws. However, scientific theory cannot be equated with science itself, because the scientific nature of any specific theory is conditional and relative; therefore, one cannot treat a specific scientific theory as an infallible dogma [21]. What drives the development and progress of scientific theory are scientific thinking and scientific methods—namely, critical thinking and the methods of hypothesis, experimentation, and control. Ordinary people may not engage in scientific theoretical activities, but they can still establish scientific thinking and master scientific methods. The reason some forms of pseudoscience are able to gain the trust and support of many people under the banner of science is that these people only believe in specific scientific theories (which may not even be true scientific theories) and do not use scientific thinking and methods for reflection and verification. We must focus on cultivating the spirit of scientific critique in individuals to effectively identify pseudoscientific theories. On the other hand, we must attach importance to education regarding frontier scientific theories. In the current stage of scientific development, many theories—unlike classical theories—cannot be grasped through everyday examples and common sense; they possess a high degree of abstraction and are far removed from real life, yet they cannot be completely detached from it. This characteristic makes scientific theories extremely susceptible to vulgarization and exploitation by various pseudosciences, turning them into tools for propagating "pseudoscience."
Third, we must improve the focus and effectiveness of anti-superstition propaganda. In the past, anti-superstition propaganda emphasized telling people that "superstition is wrong" and "superstition has serious consequences," but it failed to clearly explain "why superstition is wrong" and "why this specific thing is superstition." In fact, superstitious people never believe themselves to be superstitious; they always act based on certain reasons. If the psychological soil of superstition cannot be eliminated from the root, it will be difficult for anti-superstition propaganda to achieve actual results. In practice, many people often believe that "seeing is believing." Once they witness or experience a miraculous phenomenon with their own eyes, they no longer believe the propaganda on paper. However, these so-called "miraculous phenomena" are usually intentionally fabricated by those with ulterior motives, or are the result of "casting a wide net" [22] to filter for potential targets—none of which can withstand close scrutiny. If the potential audience maintains a basic level of vigilance, possesses enough patience, avoids easy belief, and conducts repeated verifications, pseudoscience will inevitably show its true colors. Therefore, we should use more vivid cases to expose the tricks behind pseudoscientific practitioners and the origins of "miraculous phenomena." This will allow the masses to recognize the deceptive and pervasive nature of pseudoscience more directly and intuitively, thereby ensuring they maintain constant vigilance and avoid being misled by isolated appearances.
Source: Science and Atheism, Issue 1, 2026 Editor: Huihui