Xin Xiangyang: Chinese Modernization and the "Rise of the East and Decline of the West"

"The East is rising and the West is declining" ^[1] is a major trend that is now universally acknowledged. Judging this trend correctly will not only profoundly influence China’s grasp of the international situation and the formulation of its international strategy, but also affect people's ideals and convictions. On March 1, 2022, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in a speech at the opening ceremony of the training program for young and middle-aged officials at the Central Party School (National Academy of Governance) that: "Generally speaking, through continuous education since the 18th Party Congress—and especially through the facts of the historical achievements and transformations in the cause of the Party and the state in the New Era, and the sharper contrast of 'the East rising and the West declining' and 'order in China and chaos in the West' ^[2]—Party members and officials have strengthened their ideals and convictions." Why has such a sharp contrast emerged? A major reason is the successful advancement of Chinese-path modernization. This success has made the trend of the East rising and the West declining more prominent and the contrast of order in China and chaos in the West more distinct. On February 7, 2023, in a speech to a seminar for newly elected members and alternate members of the Central Committee and provincial-level principal leading officials, General Secretary Xi Jinping further noted: "From the end of World War II to the early 1990s, some developing countries ignored their own national conditions and historical circumstances, indiscriminately copying Western models. As a result, they failed to adapt to local conditions ^[3], and the vast majority fell into the predicament of long-term economic stagnation and social and political turmoil. The 'choice of path' has troubled many developing countries. The preliminary success of the practice of Chinese-path modernization and its remarkable achievements, along with the sharp contrast of 'the East rising and the West declining' and 'order in China and chaos in the West' since the New Era began, have given the vast number of developing countries new hope and a new choice." It can be said that "the East rising and the West declining," as a future trend, is an inevitability of the development of world history.

1. "The East is Rising and the West is Declining" is a Major Trend in the Global Process of Modernization

"The East is rising and the West is declining" is the result of the continuous development and evolution of human modernization. From the earliest primitive accumulation for modernization to the first wave of modernization, and then to the second wave after World War II, a basic characteristic was that Western countries dominated the fundamental aspects of modernization, creating a situation where "the West was strong and the East was weak." However, this situation is being overturned, and an important reason for this is the continuous new achievements of Chinese-path modernization.

1.1 The Essence of "The East is Rising and the West is Declining"

1.1.1 The criteria for distinguishing "East" from "West" cannot be limited to geographical factors Since the 1990s, economic globalization dominated by the transnational monopoly finance capital of the US-led West has changed the old international relations system centered on "nation-territory" states, forming a global political and economic structure dominated by capital relations. Transnational monopoly capital groups—either jointly or separately—control or restrict the high-end stages of the global industrial capital cycle. Through the global deployment of capital, they exercise substantive capital-relation rule over late-developing countries, plundering their national wealth and economic surplus, and influencing or even controlling the global political and economic landscape.

According to the basic principles of historical materialism, old social structures will inevitably be replaced by new, higher-level social structures. In the division between "East" and "West," the "East" represents the emerging forces driving the transformation of social structures; it represents the oppressed and the overthrowers of the old transnational finance capital, and is a force for historical progress, including Asia, Latin America, Africa, and beyond. Within this, the BRICS countries are the primary force. Countries that support and participate in the Belt and Road Initiative are necessary partners in solidarity, and China is the leader and driver of the "rising East." The "West" refers to the dominators and primary members of the old social structure—namely, the G7 group and its subordinate countries. This dictates that "the East rising and the West declining" will revolve around the struggle for interests between developed and developing countries for a considerable period. At the same time, the definition of "East" and "West" is not static. Amidst intense confrontation and competition, the political choice to "follow the winner" always exists. Some emerging market countries might, to varying degrees, become peripheral vassals of the "West" in economic, political, or security terms. Conversely, some Western countries may, based on strategic assessments of their own long-term interests, choose neutrality or even integrate into the "East" to a certain extent.

1.1.2 "The East is rising and the West is declining" is the result of the accumulation of internal contradictions in Western monopoly capitalism "The East rising and the West declining" is the inevitable outcome of capitalism's self-development, self-reinforcement, and the self-negation of its historical limitations. It is a concentrated expression of changes in the world, the times, and history, and is the inevitable direction of world history's development. This trend is also the result of over a hundred years of coexistence, contestation, and competition between the socialist and capitalist systems since the Russian October Revolution; it is the result of the accumulated experience of socialist modernization, and especially the result of theoretical and practical innovations in Chinese-path modernization. During these 100-plus years, the socialist system has continuously improved and gained increasing competitiveness, gradually raising the "socialist content" among world forces.

1.2 The General Trend and Dynamics of "The East is Rising and the West is Declining"

1.2.1 "The East is rising and the West is declining" is a long-term, wave-like historical process Currently, the trend of "the East rising and the West declining" has already emerged. Since the 1990s, the old social structure dominated by the United States has seen its efficacy diminish, facing dual pressure from both within and without. Internally, the basic social contradictions of developed capitalist countries have deepened, gradually exceeding the boundaries and capabilities of national governance; the old accumulation system of transnational monopoly finance capital has lost its effectiveness. The "decline of the West" unfolds through the overlapping eruption of multiple contradictions in Western economic, political, cultural, and social spheres. As a historical stock, "Western decline" is slowly exhausting its existing energy; although new energy is still accumulating, its old contradictions cannot be overcome. Externally, emerging market countries represented by China have demonstrated strong economic growth momentum. The advantages of their social systems—particularly the advantages of the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics—are continuously manifesting. The systems, cultures, and civilizations of the "rising East" are growing, their power is steadily accumulating, and consensus is continuously building.

1.2.2 The "trailing effect" in the process of "the East rising and the West declining" The US-centered Western countries have demonstrated a strong "trailing effect" in their development process. Because this "tail" is very long, the pattern of "the West being strong and the East being weak" has not yet undergone a fundamental reversal. A situation in which short-term rebounds of "West-up East-down" and long-term coexistence of "East and West standing in opposition" are inevitable. We must fully estimate the "limit challenges" ^[4] we may face. The conflicts between "East" and "West" regarding ideology, trade, and other areas are essentially new expressions of the inherent antagonistic contradictions of capital and new means of self-preservation. Coupled with new changes such as the technological revolution, finance, climate, and geopolitical conflicts, Western countries are manifesting a new form of being "in decline but not yet dead." The trade wars, exchange rate wars, financial wars, opinion wars, and localized "hot wars" waged by the US-led West against China and other emerging market countries are typical expressions of their defense of the old system. This "trailing effect" will inevitably lead to a further worsening of the global peace deficit, development deficit, security deficit, and governance deficit.

However, short-term Western rebounds do not constitute a negation of the laws of world development themselves; limited countervailing factors are merely repetitions of old logic under new conditions. On the contrary, the more intense the confrontation between "East" and "West," the more it indicates the increasing instability of the old structure, which will accelerate the decline of Western countries as confrontation intensifies. Meanwhile, internal contradictions and disagreements exist within both the "East" and the "West"—"West-West friction" and "East-East jockeying" are equally inevitable. However, a principal contradiction of world history remains the confrontation between the new and old forces represented by "East" and "West." The inevitability of "the East rising and the West declining" is determined by the historical limitations of the new imperialism based on the logic of capital in US-centered Western countries; it is determined by the choice of emerging market countries to pursue development paths suited to their own conditions and their long-term arduous struggle; and it is determined by the success of the theory and practice of Chinese-path modernization. While US-centered Western countries continuously reinforce their power to dominate the global political economy, they also continuously create factors that negate themselves. China and other emerging market countries will inevitably face a long and tortuous process, but their developmental momentum is unstoppable. Therefore, the general trend of "the East rising" is inevitable—it is a "rise" in speed and scale, and even more so in the quality of development. The trend of "the West declining" is also inevitable; the key factors accelerating this decline are the various economic, political, and social crises brought about by the basic contradictions of capitalism. To accelerate this global trend, we must speed up the cause of Chinese-path modernization, adhere to the mutual reinforcement of high-quality development and high-level security, and build a high-standard socialist market economy. The inevitability of "the East rising and the West declining" is just as Chernyshevsky expressed in his commentary on Lessing's work: "The course of great world events is necessary and inevitable, like a great river; no cliff, no abyss can stop it, let alone arbitrarily built dikes. ... The realization of great world events depends neither on someone's will nor on any individual. They are realized according to laws as certain as the law of gravity or the laws of organic growth."

2. The Impact of Redrawing the New Map of Human Modernization on "The East Rising and the West Declining"

The trend of "the East rising and the West declining" contains within it the majestic power of Chinese-path modernization. With its impact in redrawing the map of human modernization, Chinese-path modernization profoundly influences the evolution of the overall "East-up West-down" pattern. In other words, the most important "undercurrent" within this trend is Chinese-path modernization, which is "scouring the existing riverbeds of modernization."

2.1 Redrawing the Demographic Map of Human Modernization

Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a huge population. After centuries of development, the number of countries globally that have achieved industrialization, urbanization, informatization, and agricultural modernization—that is, "the countries that have entered modernization—is only about 20, with a total population of around 1 billion," accounting for roughly 12.5% of the global population of 8 billion. By 2035, China’s population of over 1.4 billion will enter modernization as a whole, exceeding the combined population of all existing developed countries. The global modernized population will reach 24 billion, accounting for about 30% of the world’s population—an increase of roughly 18%. This will tremendously redraw the demographic map of human modernization. This redrawing has three points of significance.

2.1.1 Modernization achieved by the largest population in history The modernization achieved by our country will tremendously change the mindset of Western-centricity, allowing more people to learn to use Eastern culture to think about problems and handle affairs. Between 1822 and 1831, Hegel expressed an extremely obvious Western-centric mindset in his lectures on the philosophy of history. He said: "World history travels from East to West, for Europe is absolutely the end of History, Asia the beginning." This Eurocentrism or Germancentrism has persisted in human history for centuries, but it will be broken by Chinese-path modernization.

2.1.2 Modernization built by the people and where modernization fruits are shared by all Chinese-path modernization is a modernization in which more than 1.4 billion people can enjoy the fruits of progress. Not a single person is excluded from the ranks of modernization, and not a single ethnic group is blocked at the threshold. Chinese-path modernization is a modernization where everyone enjoys the well-being of development. Although some Western countries have achieved modernization, not everyone is on the modernization "train"; many people are destitute or even homeless, and have not become modernized people in the true sense. One could say that of the 1 billion-plus people in developed Western countries, only about 800 million actually reach a modernized standard of living. According to 2018 federal poverty level data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the "poverty rate" in the United States has remained at about 15% for over half a century. Philip Alston, the UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights, pointed out in a report published in May 2018 following a visit to the U.S. that "the United States has become the Western country with the most severe wealth disparity, with about 40 million Americans living in poverty." Additionally, Eurostat data shows that in 2022, there were 95.3 million people at risk of poverty in EU countries (22% of the population). It can be said that none of these people have boarded the "train" of modernization. Conversely, Chinese-path modernization is a modernization jointly built and shared by every individual and every ethnic group.

2.1.3 Modernization for the well-rounded development of the person

Chinese-path modernization is a modernization that achieves the well-rounded development of the individual; it is not a modernization that produces "one-dimensional man" ^[5] or a "lost generation" in vast numbers. Due to social contradictions, Western modernization has caused some people—while enjoying the material fruits of modernization—to become "people on the road" or "catchers in the rye" ^[6], losing their souls and dreams. The over 1.4 billion Chinese people possess great dreams and extraordinary talents. Truly organized under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the power they generate is incomparably strong and staggering. This change in population scale reshapes not only the map of the modernized population in terms of quantity, but also in terms of quality. Chinese-path modernization emphasizes the well-rounded development of people—people with ideals, convictions, direction, and a future; people with a stage for struggle and countless opportunities to strive; and people capable of changing their own destinies and influencing social development.

2.2 Redrawing the Institutional Map of Human Modernization On February 7, 2023, in a speech at the seminar for newly elected members and alternate members of the Central Committee, as well as principal provincial and ministerial-level leading officials, on studying and implementing Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and the guiding principles of the 20th CPC National Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly pointed out: "Because the process of world modernization began in Western capitalist countries, the developed countries in the world today are also primarily European and American countries, or capitalist countries deeply influenced by Western civilization. This has given people a false impression, as if modernization is Westernization, and Western civilization is modern civilization." In other words, the countries that have achieved modernization thus far have basically all followed the capitalist road; modernization has been the product of the capitalist system. This situation brings about two problems: first, it appears that modernization can only be achieved by taking the capitalist road and building a capitalist system, as if one cannot enter the "gate of modernization" without it; second, developing countries wishing to take other paths are confined within the framework of the capitalist system, locked in ^[7] by it, and unable to carry out independent exploration.

2.2.1 Chinese-path modernization is socialist modernization led by the CPC Chinese-path modernization is socialist in nature; it is a modernization built on the foundation of the socialist system. By 2035, China will basically achieve socialist modernization. At that time, the map of the socialist system will be painted in bold colors upon the institutional map of world modernization, transforming the monotonous and grey Western institutional layout into a multi-colored and vibrant socialist one. By 2048—the 200th anniversary of the publication of the Manifesto of the Communist Party—China will be at the moment of fully building a great modern socialist country and achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. "At that time, the Chinese Communists and the Chinese people will further prove the scientific, truthful, and prophetic nature of Marxism with their own heroic undertaking. Let us welcome the arrival of this great moment with practical actions." By then, the influence of the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics will be even more manifest.

2.2.2 Chinese-path modernization possesses many significant institutional advantages The significant institutional advantages of Chinese-path modernization are mainly reflected in several areas. First, the modernized country built by China is the first in human history to be built on the basis of a socialist system. This proves that achieving modernization is not a patent or the exclusive domain of the capitalist system; other systems, particularly the socialist system, also possess this capability. Consequently, the situation where the history of modernization was written solely by the capitalist system has changed to one where two systems coexist and compete to write the annals of modernization. The "solo act" of the capitalist system dominating the world of modernization has become a "pas de deux" with two systems each writing the history of modernization. For many countries embarking on the road to modernization, there are now more and more feasible choices for institutional paths. Second, the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics possesses a powerful capacity to drive modernization. This is why, in the short 70-plus years of the history of the People's Republic of China, we have been able to complete the processes of industrialization and urbanization that took Western countries two or three centuries.

The history of Western modernization was a slow process of development, and even more so, a process filled with blood and tears. The capitalist system relied on external expansion and colonial plunder, using economic hegemony to carry out primitive accumulation for its modernization; it advanced its own development at the sacrifice of countless nations. When discussing the impact of British colonial rule on India, the famous Indian-American economist Amartya Sen, in his 2021 book Home in the World, cited facts observed by historian William Dalrymple: "The economic numbers speak for themselves. When the East India Company was founded in 1600, Britain produced 1.8% of the world's GDP, while India produced 22.5%. By the peak of British rule in India (1911), these figures were almost reversed. India went from being one of the world's leading manufacturing nations to a symbol of famine and poverty." On January 20, 2025, an Oxfam report pointed out: "From 1765 to 1900, $64.82 trillion flowed from India to Britain, 50% of which went into the pockets of the wealthiest 10% of the UK population." Calculated over 135 years, this exceeds $480 billion annually—a staggering figure. It can be said that Western modernization was not an endogenous modernization truly brought about by the system itself, but rather a modernization brought about by the predatory nature of the system. In contrast, Chinese-path modernization is a modernization that stimulates the internal vitality of the system. The development of its system has gone through the reform and improvement of institutions after the launch of reform and opening up, then to the emphasis on building the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and finally to the system becoming mature and finalized. After more than 40 years of effort, in 2019, the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Several Major Issues Concerning Upholding and Improving the System of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics and Advancing the Modernization of China's System and Capacity for Governance," adopted at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, stated: "Practice has proven that the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics and China's system for governance are a system of institutions and governance guided by Marxism, rooted in Chinese soil, possessing deep foundations in Chinese culture, and enjoying the deep support of the people. They are a system of institutions and governance with strong vitality and immense superiority, capable of continuously promoting the progress and development of a great country with nearly 1.4 billion people, and ensuring that the Chinese nation, with a civilization of over 5,000 years, achieves the 'Two Centenary' goals and then realizes its great rejuvenation." This institutional system includes fundamental, basic, and important systems, as well as specific institutions, providing a powerful impetus for promoting modernized development.

2.3 Redrawing the Civilization Map of Human Modernization Chinese-path modernization is a modernization of civilization; it avoids the colonial plunder carried out in the name of freedom and human rights typical of capitalism, and is a modernization achieved in a humanized and civilized manner.

2.3.1 Western modernization is full of barbarism General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "The modernization of Western countries was full of bloody crimes such as war, slave trading, colonization, and plunder, which brought profound disasters to the vast number of developing countries. The Chinese nation experienced the tragic history of aggression and humiliation by Western powers; we know the value of peace and will never repeat the old path of Western countries." "Capitalist civilization is built on the foundation of the capitalist system of exploitation; it cannot overcome or eliminate the barbaric nature beneath civilization." Lenin said in What Is to Be Done?: "Freedom is a grand word, but under the banner of industrial freedom the most predatory wars were waged, and under the banner of the freedom of labor, the working people were robbed." In the name of free trade, Britain imported vast quantities of opium into China. "The total value of opium imported into China in 1856 was about $35 million. In the same year, the British Indian government earned $25 million from the opium monopoly, which was exactly one-sixth of its total fiscal revenue." This so-called free trade not only destroyed people's bodies but also crushed their souls. Precisely for this reason, Marx indignantly pointed out in History of the Opium Trade: "This trade... whether we look at the tragic conflicts which may be said to form its axis, or at its influence on the general relations between the East and the West, is unique in the annals of mankind." In the name of industrial freedom, "From 1818 to 1836, the export of British cotton yarn to India increased 5,200 times. In 1850, British cotton textile exports to India accounted for 65% of Britain's total cotton textile export value." The British colonial authorities stipulated that British goods imported into India were subject to extremely low or even no taxes, while Indian textiles sold within their own country were subject to extremely high internal taxes. Under British control, the Indian cotton textile industry declined sharply. The protectionist policies implemented by Britain toward Asia, especially India, systematically destroyed the growth potential of Indian industry.

2.3.2 Chinese-path modernization has created a new form of human civilization Chinese-path modernization has truly pioneered the civilizational history of human modernization. If Western modernization pioneered the "prehistory" of human modernized civilization, then socialist modernization—and Chinese-path modernization in particular—has ended the prehistory of human modernization, allowing modernization to manifest in a civilized state. It is in this sense that Chinese-path modernization has created many new forms of civilization. For example, our country has created a new human urban civilization. This new civilization is unprecedented in the history of human modernization. From 1978 to 2024, China's urbanization rate increased from 17.6% to 67%, resulting in over 900 million people living in cities. Statistical data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in January 2025 shows: looking at the urban-rural composition, the permanent urban population is 943.5 million, an increase of 10.83 million over the end of the previous year; the permanent rural population is 464.78 million, a decrease of 12.22 million; the proportion of the urban population to the national population (urbanization rate) is 67%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points over the end of the previous year. In 47 years, over 760 million people in China have moved into urban life; urbanization on this scale is unprecedented in human history. In this process, on the one hand, China's cities have not experienced any social upheaval, nor have they seen urban slums like those in Latin America or India, let alone urban vagrants and beggars. On the other hand, China has not seen the "sheep eating men" enclosure movement ^[8] of Britain, nor the "cowboy-style" wild push of the United States.

Why was this new human urban civilization able to be created? First, it followed the objective laws of urbanization development. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in September 2018: "In the process of modernization, the rising proportion of cities and the falling proportion of the countryside is an objective law. However, given our national conditions of nearly 1.4 billion people, no matter how far industrialization and urbanization progress, agriculture must develop and the countryside will not disappear; urban and rural areas will coexist for a long time. This is also an objective law. Even if China's urbanization rate reaches 70%, there will still be more than 400 million people in the countryside. If these 400 million-plus people are left behind in the process of modernization, leading to 'prosperous cities on one side and a desolate countryside on the other,' it would not conform to our Party's governing purpose, nor to the essential requirements of socialism. Such a modernization cannot succeed! Forty years ago, we opened the curtain of reform and opening up through rural reform. Today, forty years later, we should open a new chapter of urban-rural integrated development and modernization through rural revitalization." This law determines that the relationship between cities and the countryside is one of symbiosis, not opposition or antagonism. Second, we established people-centered urbanization. In this process, our country solved many institutional problems affecting urbanization and constructed a series of institutional systems to promote the development of urban civilization. These aim to ensure the effective protection of the rights and interests of farmers moving into cities and, on this basis, to achieve the "citizenization" ^[9] of the migrant agricultural population. This protects not only the rights of farmers who settle in cities but also their rights in the countryside. The "Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese-path Modernization," adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, explicitly required: "Safeguard the legal land rights and interests of farmers who settle in cities, and protect according to law their land contract rights, use rights for rural homesteads, and rights to the distribution of collective earnings; explore mechanisms for voluntary, compensated withdrawal from these rights." Such urbanization promotes the modernization of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, making it unique in the history of human modernization.

3. The New Path by which Chinese-path Modernization Promotes "the East is Rising and the West is Declining" The direction and speed of the objective trend of "the East is rising and the West is declining" depend to a large extent on the degree to which Chinese-path modernization is advanced. If Chinese-path modernization proceeds smoothly, the process of "the East is rising and the West is declining" will accelerate, and the situation of "the West is strong and the East is weak" will be changed more quickly. Chinese-path modernization affects the changing pattern of "the East is rising and the West is declining" in many ways.

3.1 Constructing a New Form of Human Industrial Civilization Centered on New Quality Productive Forces 3.1.1 China’s industrial civilization contains many factors that catalyze the development of new quality productive forces Through seventy-six years of arduous effort since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China has become the country with the most complete industrial system in the world. Not only are its sectors fully integrated and its products diverse, but many of its fields possess advanced technology and immense developmental potential. Today, China’s industrial civilization is characterized by three prominent features: first, its people-centered nature. A vast population participates in the industrialization process, and many private enterprises—such as Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. and Geely Holding Group—are participants in and contributors to the development of industrial civilization. Second, its integrated nature. Various industrial sectors are capable of mutual coordination, creating concentrated advantages. Third, its innovative nature. Chinese industrial technology has achieved innovation in many fields, such as tunnel boring machines, high-speed rail technology, and the construction of large aircraft. These characteristics encompass the foundation and conditions for the development of new quality productive forces.

3.1.2 New quality productive forces lay a new foundation for a new human industrial civilization In new quality productive forces, innovation plays the core role. These forces break away from traditional economic growth modes and development paths for productive forces; they are characterized by high technology, high efficiency, high quality, and high standards, representing an advanced state of productive forces that fully embodies the New Development Philosophy ^[10].

First, the most important kinetic energy generating new quality productive forces consists of revolutionary breakthroughs in technology, the innovative allocation of production factors, and the deep transformation and upgrading of industries. Specifically: technology has achieved breakthrough progress never seen before; once applied to the field of production, this technology causes a qualitative leap. For example, the maturation of research and development in rotating detonation engine (RDE) technology has had a massive impact on the aerospace industry. The allocation of production factors is manifested in an innovative manner, where the effects between factors are mutually activated and allocation efficiency is greatly enhanced—not merely by orders of magnitude, but in a geometric progression. For instance, the integration of technology, finance, and networks will produce immense benefits. Industries are transforming and upgrading in unprecedented ways; this is not structural adjustment in the general sense, but a revolutionary reconstruction. This revolutionary reconstruction not only shifts from the "standard track" to a "flight track" but proceeds with accelerating speed.

Second, the basic connotation of new quality productive forces is the leap in the quality of laborers, means of labor, and objects of labor, as well as their optimized combination. Specifically: laborers are the most active and basic element of the productive forces; their knowledge structures and innovative capacities undergo a qualitative change in the age of intelligence, manifesting as a breakthrough of traditional skill boundaries and the formation of a new type of skill system. Means of labor break through the physical boundaries of traditional material tools, utilizing new technological carriers such as data algorithms, intelligent equipment, and digital twins to achieve the intelligent iteration of the production process, forming a creative renovation of the tools of labor. Objects of labor extend from natural resources toward emerging fields such as data factors, virtual space, and biological genes, driving the reconstruction of human modes of existence.

Third, the core hallmark of new quality productive forces is a significant increase in total factor productivity (TFP). Its characteristic is innovation, its key lies in high quality, and its essence is advanced productive forces. China stands at the global forefront regarding the development of new quality productive forces. An article titled "Don’t Fight DeepSeek, Learn From It," published on the American Barron's website on January 27, 2025, argued that China has redefined the internet and mobile applications, changing the way people interact, shop, and conduct business online. Furthermore, China's innovative capacity in the field of electric vehicles (EVs) has surprised the world; in telecommunications technology, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. has made major progress in developing and deploying fifth-generation mobile communication technology (5G); and massive resources have been invested in AI development, leading to breakthrough progress in fields like natural language processing, autonomous systems, and algorithm-driven manufacturing. Simultaneously, China's progress in robotics and autonomous driving further proves its innovative capacity.

3.1.3 The great contribution of a new human industrial civilization First, it has contributed a green, ecological industrial civilization. The development of China’s ecological civilization has made global industry greener and cleaner. China has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Currently, 40% of the world’s hydrogen refueling stations are in China, and China accounts for over 50% of the world’s new wind power capacity. In 2024, China's exports of wind turbine units grew by 71.9%; exports of photovoltaic products exceeded 200 billion yuan for the fourth consecutive year; and 3.91 billion lithium batteries were exported, hitting a record high. In the field of green transportation, China's export volume of electric railway locomotives has increased for five consecutive years. Electric motorcycles and bicycles are selling well in overseas markets, with export values exceeding 40 million yuan for the first time, while electric vehicle exports exceeded 2 million units for the first time, providing powerful support for the development of global green civilization. Many countries cannot achieve their green transition without China; for example, New Zealand aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and China provided 89% of New Zealand's solar photovoltaic equipment in 2023.

Second, industrial trade has become more fair and rational. The powerful capacity of Chinese manufacturing, along with the comprehensiveness of its product categories and high quality, has continuously increased its discourse power ^[11] in global industrial trade. In industrial trade, China has always adhered to the principles of equality and mutual benefit. It does not engage in industrial exploitation of other countries because it occupies the technological high ground, nor does it engage in trade bullying because it holds rule-making power. It certainly does not use excuses like "forced labor," "human rights," or "values" to engage in trade protectionism, as some countries do at every turn. Instead, it shares technology with other countries while conducting equal trade in products. It can be said that since the world entered the era of industrial civilization, trade exchange has never been as equal as it is today; the reason for this is the development of Chinese industry and the formation of its discourse power.

3.2 Enhancing the scientific and technological content of Chinese-path modernization and driving the "eastward shift" of the global center of scientific and technological innovation At a deeper level, capital is the direct driver of the "East rising and West declining." Since the end of the 20th century, the "finance capital-technological innovation" double helix structure has been the most important means for the United States to remain at the apex of the world's political and economic structural system. At the same time, the brutalization of capital forces in capitalist society, along with their control over and overriding of national politics, has caused capital to manifest various inherent contradictions and problems. This has led to chaotic situations in national governance. The "small yard, high fence" ^[12] of technology is being built ever higher; any technology with even a bit of technical content is placed on "prohibited sale" or "embargo" lists by Western countries. This causes the momentum of scientific and technological development to weaken. In contrast, Chinese-path modernization must also fully utilize the power of capital. On one hand, it involves building a high-level socialist market economy system, ensuring that the socialist market economy possesses higher economic efficiency, more substantive economic justice, and a more pro-social social ethics than the capitalist market economy. On the other hand, it involves regulating and guiding the power of capital to play a more positive role. Since China aims to become a leading power in science and technology by 2035 and a global leader in science and technology by 2049, it must stimulate the endogenous vitality of capital to participate in technological innovation, placing the service of technological innovation in a more prominent position.

3.2.1 Conforming to the law of the shifting of world scientific centers to build a global scientific and technological power In 1962, Mitsutomo Yuasa of Kobe University further revealed the law governing the shifting of scientific centers using historical comparative methods and quantitative analysis. He argued that if a country’s scientific achievements exceeding 25% of the world's total scientific achievements during the same period is taken as the hallmark of being a center of world scientific activity, then from the 16th to the 20th century, the world scientific center has undergone five major transitions: Italy (1540–1610), Britain (1660–1730), France (1770–1830), Germany (1810–1920), and the United States (1920–present). The cycle of transition is approximately 80 to 100 years. This is known in the history of science as the "Yuasa Phenomenon." The "Yuasa Phenomenon" suggests that the world scientific center is not fixed but constantly changing and shifting; its basic law is a continuous transfer from "West" to "East." In these several shifts, strategic scientists and theoretical scientists played a vital role. Figures such as Da Vinci, Copernicus, Galileo, Hooke, Newton, Lavoisier, Faraday, Einstein, Born, and Planck all drove the great development of science and technology through their own scientific thought.

3.2.2 Actively exploring the linked development of venture capital and the technology industry China should encourage and support various types of ownership capital operating companies to participate in the investment and financing of science and technology enterprises through a self-accounting model (assuming sole responsibility for profits and losses). Simultaneously, it should improve relevant laws and regulations, standardize market order, and comprehensively enhance the power, vitality, and effectiveness of the capital market in serving technological innovation, thereby achieving the financialization of technology and the technologization of finance. To this end, China can adopt various methods to provide high-tech enterprises with more financing channels, allowing them to raise more capital on the stock market; it can implement a series of policies to solve the funding problems needed by tech enterprises; and it can improve the positioning and governance of financial institutions while refining incentive and constraint mechanisms that serve the real economy.

3.2.3 Strengthening transnational capital operations and accelerating technology diffusion As countries like the United States and Britain adopt "small yard, high fence" containment policies against China in high technology, our country must take targeted measures to break this containment. China should launch high-level international bidding for specific bottleneck technologies or industries. Following the path of "competition, introduction, digestion, and autonomous innovation" used in high-speed rail technology, China should trade its immense market advantage for technological advantage. Meanwhile, taking equity stakes in or acquiring advanced international technological innovation enterprises will not only help Chinese enterprises expand into overseas markets but also help drive the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure and stimulate the development of related industries, forming new growth points.

3.3 Implementing the "Three Global Initiatives" and building a community with a shared future for humanity The advancement of modernization is not only a matter of a country's own development but also an international relations issue involving affairs between nations. Chinese-path modernization is a modernization that influences the globe with a scale and force never before seen in human history; therefore, every step of the development of Chinese-path modernization will have a broad and profound impact on other countries. Conversely, the advancement of modernization in other countries will also affect the process of Chinese-path modernization.

3.3.1 Chinese-path modernization must further increase the forces of peace in human society In June 2022, in his keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the BRICS Business Forum, President Xi Jinping pointed out: "Where is the world going? Peace or war? Development or recession? Openness or closure? Cooperation or confrontation? These are the questions of the times before us." The clouds of war have always hung over the heads of the people of the world, and Chinese-path modernization is continuously dispersing these clouds. One of the important characteristics of Chinese-path modernization is following the path of peaceful development. General Secretary Xi Jinping noted: "Adhering to peaceful development, seeking our own development while resolutely maintaining world peace and development, and better maintaining world peace and development through our own development to promote the building of a community with a shared future for humanity, is a prominent feature of Chinese-path modernization." Chinese civilization possesses a prominent peaceful nature. Concepts such as peace, harmony, concord, "harmony brings wealth" ^[13], "harmony in the family brings prosperity to all undertakings" ^[14], and "harmony without uniformity" ^[15] are all ideas passed down through the five thousand years of Chinese civilization. This philosophy advocates for the construction of a peaceful world where the self and the group are integrated through moral order and ethical norms, emphasizing collective and holistic cooperation in relationships between the self and others.

Following the path of peaceful development and continuously adding to the forces of peace for humanity is a requirement of Chinese-path modernization. Shortly after the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Communist Party of China proposed the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence ^[16]. The formal publication of these principles was a great pioneering undertaking in the history of international relations. During the period of socialist revolution and construction, amidst an extremely complex international environment, China consistently pursued this principle. In the new period of reform, opening up, and socialist modernization, our Party put forward the thesis that "peace and development are the themes of the times," contributing brick by brick to the edifice of human peace and development through its own growth. In the New Era of socialism with Chinese characteristics, China proposed the concept of building a community with a shared future for humanity. "Now, building a community with a shared future for humanity has expanded from a Chinese initiative to an international consensus, and transformed from a beautiful vision into rich practice, powerfully driving the world toward a bright future of peace, security, prosperity, and progress." Over 70 years of practice have proven that on issues of peace and security, China has the best record among the major powers. No other major power values and defends world peace as China does; no other major power is as dedicated to the maintenance of world peace as China is. It can be said that with every step forward made by Chinese-path modernization, the forces of world peace increase by one measure.

3.3.2 Chinese-path modernization must further increase the forces of civilization in human society

Chinese-path modernization is a modernization that creates a new form of human advancement and promotes historical exchange between civilizations. The Global Civilization Initiative proposed by China implies that different civilizations must engage in constructive and mutually beneficial interactions through mutually recognized forms of civility, transcending barbarism or the threat of force. It requires greater respect for the heritage and value traditions of human civilizational development, utilizing dialogue and exchange to promote mutual learning among civilizations. In today's world, where economic globalization is deepening and the futures and destinies of all nations are closely linked, the inclusive coexistence, exchange, and mutual learning of different civilizations—where each draws on the strengths of others for common development—play an irreplaceable role in advancing the modernization process of human society and flourishing the "garden of world civilizations." However, certain Western countries reject the equality of civilizations, using so-called "human rights diplomacy" and "values diplomacy" to force other civilizations to transplant Western socio-political systems. In reality, this diplomacy is a tool for a few capitalist groups to reap profits; it is the civilization of a narrow "small circle" ^[17]. The Global Civilization Initiative proposed by China transcends human rights diplomacy and values diplomacy. Based on the common values of humanity, it enables various civilizations to engage in dialogue as equals.

The fundamental points of the Global Civilization Initiative proposed by China lie in: advocating for the equality of civilizations and opposing civilizational hierarchy; advocating for the openness of civilizations and opposing the creation of closed civilizational "small circles"; advocating for the diversity of civilizations and opposing the forced assimilation of other civilizations through a singularized model of civilization; advocating for the shared nature of civilization for the people and opposing the narrow civilization of capital monopoly or the unequal civilization of class oppression; advocating for the complementarity and mutual learning of civilizations and opposing the "clash of civilizations" theory; advocating for the historicity and reality of civilizations and opposing an abstract theory of civilization; advocating for the developmental and progressive nature of civilizations and opposing stagnation and xenophobia; and advocating for the integration and innovation of civilizations and opposing the artificial creation of civilizational antagonism. Conversely, Western scholars have manufactured the "clash of civilizations" theory ^[18] to incite "color revolutions" ^[19]. The "clash of civilizations" is essentially the use of arrogance and prejudice to blind the eyes of reason, promoting cultural hegemony through crude and unreasonable means. Americans have long believed that planting the flag of American democratic values across broader lands is a mission to save backward regions based on the evolutionary needs of freedom and civilization. However, China advocates replacing hostility and confrontation with civilizational dialogue and understanding, actively promoting the common values of humanity—peace, development, equity, justice, democracy, and freedom—and disseminating traditional values such as "harmony between man and nature" ^[20] and "harmony in diversity and coexistence" ^[21], along with their ecological civilizational significance. Simultaneously, it is necessary to strengthen the dissemination of overseas Sinology and build platforms for the West to learn from and reference China, connecting "coming to learn" with "going to teach" ^[22]. This ensures the world knows not only "China on the tongue" (the culinary China) but also "China in academia," "China in philosophy and social sciences," "China in the independent knowledge system," "China in development," "China in opening up," "China constantly contributing to human civilization," and "China creating a new form of human civilization."

Conclusion

"The East is rising and the West is declining" is a long-term, wave-like historical process. Along with the continuous success of socialism with Chinese characteristics, Chinese-path modernization is moving forward with great momentum. The current trend of "the East rising and the West declining" has already become apparent. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the drastic changes in Eastern Europe in the 1990s, the old system dominated by the United States has faced dual internal and external pressures, leading to a decline in its effectiveness. The overall strength of developed Western countries is falling. Some countries have seen almost no GDP growth for ten or even twenty years—for instance, Japan's GDP in 2024 is nearly the same as it was 20 years ago. In other countries, GDP per capita is declining; for example, Germany's per capita income in 2024 is equivalent to 2015 levels. These various signs indicate that the momentum of "the East rising" is irresistible, and the trend of "the West declining" is irreversible.