Zhao Zhongxiu: Focusing on Promoting the Stabilization and Quality Improvement of Foreign Trade Under the New Situation
In the context of a complex and volatile global economy with increasing uncertainties, stabilizing foreign trade can not only address short-term economic fluctuations but also enhance the resilience of China’s economic development and boost international competitiveness. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 25 of this year clearly pointed out the need to adhere to the general principle of seeking truth from facts while pursuing progress [1], unswervingly expand high-standard opening up, and focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. This aims to use the certainty of high-quality development to counter the uncertainties caused by drastic changes in the external environment. Faced with current complex and severe external conditions and internal structural adjustment pressures, stabilizing the fundamental pillars of foreign trade and increasing the intensity of stabilizing policies through proactive action to resolve risks is a necessary requirement for expanding high-standard opening up and promoting the construction of a strong trade nation.
I. The Practical Background of Promoting Stability in Volume and Improvement in Quality of Foreign Trade Development
Currently, China’s foreign trade is facing a new situation where external environmental uncertainties are interwoven with internal structural changes. Sluggish global economic recovery, the rise of protectionism, and other external shifts have increased the uncertainty of our foreign trade development, while China is in a critical period of accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern and focusing on promoting high-quality development. In this context, stabilizing foreign trade carries profound practical significance. Under current complex international and domestic circumstances, actively promoting foreign trade stability in the face of various uncertain factors serves to stabilize confidence and expectations for China’s economic development. Actively promoting the "stability in volume and improvement in quality" of foreign trade is both a necessity for responding to complex external changes and a means to inject vitality into China’s economic development, encouraging China to actively integrate into the restructuring of global industrial and supply chains.
The need to respond to a complex external environment. On one hand, the current sluggish global recovery is a major factor affecting the development of China’s foreign trade. On May 15 of this year, the United Nations' World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 mid-year update predicted that global economic growth would slow to 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024. This downward trend brings a contraction in global market demand, posing continuous pressure on China’s exports. On the other hand, the complexity and volatility of U.S. tariff policies have impacted the stability of China’s foreign trade and posed challenges to the stability of global supply chains. Slower economic growth prompts countries to adopt protectionist measures to shield domestic industries and employment; these measures, in turn, further weaken the momentum of global growth by increasing costs, creating obstacles to the international economic cycle. Therefore, the complex external environment shocks the stability of global industrial and supply chains. China’s foreign trade development faces a severe situation, and there is an urgent need to use the "policy toolkit" for stabilizing foreign trade to counter external uncertainties.
The need to achieve high-standard opening up and high-quality development. In 2024, China’s foreign trade achieved both a reasonable growth in volume and an effective improvement in quality. In 2024, the total value of China’s imports and exports of goods reached 43.85 trillion yuan, further consolidating its position as the world's largest trader in goods. The structure of imports and exports continued to optimize, with high-tech, high-value-added, and green-transition-leading "New Three" [2] products driving exports. Foreign trade exhibited strong resilience, laying the foundation for achieving stability in volume and improvement in quality. China’s ultra-large-scale market has provided more opportunities for global commodities, and the supporting factors for high-quality foreign trade development remain solid. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee pointed out: "Opening up is a defining feature of Chinese-path modernization. We must adhere to the basic state policy of opening up to the outside world, persist in promoting reform through opening up, leverage the advantages of China’s ultra-large-scale market, enhance our capacity for opening up through expanded international cooperation, and develop a new system for a higher-standard open economy." Stabilizing foreign trade is a prerequisite for achieving high-standard opening up; optimized trade structures, improved quality, and enhanced resilience provide a solid foundation and stable expectations for this process. Furthermore, stabilizing foreign trade serves as a medium for the domestic and international dual circulation, driving the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structures and promoting high-quality development.
The need to maintain industrial and supply chain stability and enhance international competitiveness. Currently, global industrial and supply chains are undergoing profound adjustments, with a clear trend toward regionalization and shorter chains. Western countries are attempting to restructure supply chain systems based on geopolitics to weaken China’s core position in the global supply chain. Meanwhile, some developing countries are actively taking over industrial transfers by virtue of low-cost advantages, posing severe challenges to China’s traditional status as the "world's factory" and its cost-based competitive edge. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the likelihood of global supply chain disruptions, posing a potential threat to the security of China’s industrial and supply chains. In this context, unswervingly expanding high-standard opening up and persisting in stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment can ensure that China remains deeply embedded in global industrial and supply chains. This enhances China’s initiative in global supply chain restructuring. By encouraging innovation, technological upgrades, and the development of new business models, China can elevate its position in the global value chain and occupy a more favorable place in the global division of labor.
II. Key Areas of Focus for Promoting Stability in Volume and Improvement in Quality of Foreign Trade
The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that in performing economic work for 2025, we must adhere to the general principle of seeking truth from facts while pursuing progress. The focus of stabilizing foreign trade revolves exactly around this principle. First, we must stabilize the fundamental pillars of foreign trade amidst complex external changes, using the policy toolkit to solve practical difficulties faced in development and ensuring steady growth through policy synergy. On the basis of "stability," we should further cultivate new drivers for foreign trade, improve development quality, promote industrial upgrading, and expand high-standard opening up. The long-term goal of stabilizing foreign trade is to construct a more balanced and diverse international market, actively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, and participate in the multilateral trading system. This is a vital guarantee for China to respond to external changes and enhance trade resilience, as well as the institutional guarantee for the successful stabilization of foreign trade.
Using the policy toolkit to stabilize the fundamental pillars of foreign trade. High-standard opening up is an inevitable choice for accelerating Chinese-path modernization and a key to consolidating and enhancing the positive momentum of economic recovery. Currently, as China’s foreign trade faces increased impacts from external shocks, the primary goal of our stabilization policy is to secure the fundamental pillars. By applying a series of policy tools to effectively offset adverse external factors, we can ensure the stability of trade scale and the resilience of economic development. We must further expand high-standard opening up to ensure that policies reach enterprises and the masses directly, improving implementation efficiency to help businesses overcome difficulties and enhance their international competitiveness. Effective measures should be introduced to precisely assist foreign trade enterprises facing difficulties, using the policy toolkit to provide timely relief. We must actively expand into diversified markets, seizing opportunities from international cooperation platforms such as the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative [3] and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and deepening economic and trade cooperation with participating countries and regions. Furthermore, we can accelerate the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade; some trade enterprises hit hard by shocks will need to rely on the domestic market for absorption in the short term.
Deepening reform of the foreign trade system to promote a leap in trade quality. The Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee pointed out the need to "deepen the reform of the foreign trade system." This involves strengthening the synergy between trade policies and fiscal, taxation, financial, and industrial policies to create an institutional and policy support system for a strong trade nation. Stabilization policies should not only focus on steady scale expansion but also on a leap in quality, enhancing the competitiveness of China’s trade in the global market. As the traditional "world's factory" model faces challenges, China's economy needs to transition toward a higher-quality, more sustainable development model, which requires continued deepening of trade system reforms. A key lever for stabilizing trade is the continuous enhancement of competitiveness, lifting China’s position in global value chains through technological innovation and brand leadership. Stabilization should be achieved within the dynamic of industrial structure upgrading, selectively cultivating advantageous industries and increasing the influence of "Made in China." Additionally, cultivating new drivers and enriching trade forms can reduce transaction costs, broaden market channels, and form new competitive advantages—transforming external pressure into new momentum for growth and expanding new spaces for trade increments. Service trade is a potential source for expanding future exports, while green trade and digital trade are important directions for aligning with global trends and fostering new competitive advantages. By developing these emerging trade formats, we can build a more sustainable and competitive new trade pattern, thereby driving high-quality economic development.
Aligning with high-standard international economic and trade rules and participating in the multilateral trading system. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: "We must more proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening up involving rules, regulations, management, and standards, accelerate the creation of new highlands for opening up, and build a new system for a higher-standard open economy." We should firmly safeguard the multilateral trading system, actively participate in international organizations and multilateral meetings, and promote the formulation and implementation of multilateral trade rules. By opening markets and reducing trade barriers, we achieve optimal resource allocation. We should also actively participate in negotiations on new issues such as digital trade and align with the rule-making process in emerging fields. In the long run, we must actively promote institutional opening up, deeply integrate into the restructuring of the global rules system, and enhance China’s international status and discourse power [4] within that system. This will allow us to respond to external changes and create a more stable and predictable international rule environment for the development of our foreign trade.
III. Measures and Countermeasures for Promoting Stability in Volume and Improvement in Quality of Foreign Trade
Based on the key focus areas for promoting stability in volume and improvement in quality, we should start from the actual problems faced by trade enterprises to establish policy synergy mechanisms, increase financial support, expand diversified markets, promote domestic-foreign trade integration, improve product competitiveness, and innovate new trade formats.
Establishing a foreign trade policy synergy mechanism to stabilize market expectations. Strengthing trade remedies, helping enterprises secure orders, and clearing bottlenecks and obstacles will optimize the business environment and improve trade facilitation. We should promote "Single Window" [5] digital services, optimize customs clearance efficiency across the entire chain of imports and exports, reduce operating costs for enterprises, and provide support through export tax rebates and special funds. Local governments should maintain close contact with trade enterprises, identify "white lists" for industrial relief, and provide precision services for market entities heavily impacted by tariff shocks. We must accelerate the improvement of risk prevention and control and the protection of overseas interests, perfecting the comprehensive overseas service system to enhance China’s ability to respond to global supply chain adjustments and market fluctuations. Strengthening expectation management, collecting the policy needs of trade enterprises, and launching corresponding policies will bolster market confidence. Based on changing situations, we should combine the resolution of prominent current issues with the promotion of high-quality trade development, continuously enriching the stabilization policy toolkit, launching new incremental policy measures when appropriate, and strengthening the synergy between policy implementation and market expectation guidance through increased publicity, interpretation, and interaction.
Increasing financial support and innovating policy-based financial tools. We should optimize export credit insurance regulatory policies and evaluations, expand the scope of country-specific underwriting, increase underwriting capacity, offer preferential rates, and implement fast and advance claim settlements to stabilize enterprise ordering and export confidence. Policy-based financial institutions can launch new financial tools to provide targeted support for trade enterprises. We should encourage banks to accelerate the implementation of various stabilization policies, expanding financing coordination mechanisms to all foreign trade enterprises, with a focus on risk-hedging mechanisms for small and micro-enterprises. We should increase credit support and innovate forms of support, formulating "one-enterprise-one-policy" characteristic financial service plans. Furthermore, support for new trade formats should be increased, improving cross-border financial services, strengthening financial supply in cross-border e-commerce settlement, and helping enterprises manage exchange rate risks.
Promoting trade market diversification to reduce dependence on single markets. Deepening economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and Latin America will reduce dependence on any single market. We should focus on structural increments in emerging markets, further develop markets in countries and regions participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, and continuously improve export product quality to build export brands. By actively supporting enterprises in attending world-renowned exhibitions, increasing support for hosting international exhibitions, and providing more public information services, we can help enterprises explore markets, reach diverse clients, and understand the policies of other trading partners. We should also expand the functions of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones and develop trade in intermediate goods. By innovating work models led by the government, driven by enterprise "going global," and empowered by platforms, we can gradually help enterprises move away from single-market dependence and expand into more global market alternatives.
Accelerating the reform of domestic and foreign trade integration to help enterprises explore domestic sales.
Strengthen the alignment of rules, unify domestic and foreign trade standards, and build a national unified large market. The government should increase the input of fiscal funds, financial institutions should increase credit support, and insurance institutions should increase support for domestic trade insurance. We must promote the reduction or waiver of office rent, exhibition booth fees, and data traffic fees for enterprises in difficulty. Through the "policy + activity" dual-wheel drive, we can help enterprises overcome challenges such as market fragmentation and standard disparities, reduce the costs for foreign trade enterprises selling domestically, and build platforms for "export-to-domestic" sales [6]. We should encourage retail and e-commerce channel enterprises, as well as supply chain firms, to open "green channels" to support foreign trade enterprises in selling to domestic consumers, helping "export-to-domestic" enterprises expand into the vast domestic market.
Promote technological innovation and brand building to enhance the competitiveness of foreign trade products. We must continuously improve the technological content and added value of foreign trade products, promote the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, drive the integration of scientific and technological innovation with industrial innovation, and cultivate new advantages in global competition. We should actively advance the brand construction of Chinese enterprises, enhancing brand awareness and premium-earning capacity, improving global consumers' recognition of Chinese foreign trade brands, and boosting the competitiveness of advantageous export products to stabilize the basic fundamentals of foreign trade. We must expand trade in intermediate goods, leveraging the advantages of China’s comprehensive industrial categories and advanced manufacturing technology to attract the design and manufacture of more intermediate goods within China. This will stabilize the industrial and supply chains of key enterprises, deeply integrate them into global supply chain networks, and ensure industrial and supply chain security. We must proactively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, making effective use of Pilot Free Trade Zones to continuously release the development potential of trade in services. We should promote the innovative development of trade in services, enhance the competitiveness of traditional advantageous services, encourage service exports, and expand the import of high-quality services. We must implement the negative list for cross-border trade in services, initiate the construction of demonstration zones for the innovative development of trade in services, and exert effort across multiple points in areas such as developing digital services and "bonded + services" [7] to promote the integrated development of trade in goods, services, and digital trade.
Innovate new business formats of foreign trade and promote the integrated development of cross-border e-commerce. We must improve the relevant policy support systems and strengthen guidance and support for enterprises in new foreign trade formats, vigorously promoting the development of cross-border e-commerce, overseas warehouses, offshore trade, and green trade. We should advance the construction of overseas smart logistics platforms, encourage overseas enterprises to integrate domestic and foreign resources, and extend services to the upstream and downstream of the supply chain. This will promote the integrated development of market procurement, cross-border e-commerce, and comprehensive foreign trade services. We must accelerate digital innovation, focusing on the needs of cross-border e-commerce to provide "one-stop" comprehensive services. We should research and introduce more support measures centered on improving customs clearance efficiency, optimizing tax administration, and perfecting financial services to create a full-chain cross-border e-commerce ecosystem. We should build industrial belt digital empowerment centers and regional trade digitalization platforms to further promote and regulate the growth of the cross-border e-commerce industry. In their overseas production capacity layout, Chinese enterprises can utilize technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence to promote digital interconnectivity and enhance the digitalization level of production and supply chains, rationally arranging overseas business according to market demand and the policy environment.
(Author's affiliation: University of International Business and Economics) Source: Hongqi Wengao [8] 2025, Issue 13 Online Editor: Jing Mu