He Dan and Wang Qinchi: Opening New Horizons in Population Theory and Practice with Chinese Characteristics
Promoting high-quality development of the population is a new concept and requirement proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping has stood at the strategic height of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and sustainable development, deeply observing the changes in China's demographic situation, scientifically grasping the laws of population development, and profoundly explaining a series of fundamental, strategic, and holistic major theoretical and practical issues in the field of population development. He noted that "the population issue is always a holistic, long-term, and strategic issue facing our country," and made strategic deployments to support Chinese-path modernization with high-quality development of the population, driving historic new achievements in population work in the New Era. General Secretary Xi Jinping's important expositions on the high-quality development of the population profoundly explain its major significance, scientific connotation, and realization paths, opening up a new realm for Chinese-path population theory and practice, and providing the fundamental horizontal basis for doing good population work in the New Era. The "Suggestions" of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee proposed to "promote high-quality development of the population" and made important arrangements. To implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speeches and the decision-making deployments of the Party Central Committee, we must establish a "Grand Population View" [1], better leverage the foundational, holistic, and strategic role of population factors, and support Chinese-path modernization with high-quality development of the population.
Forming Original and Iconic Concepts within the Organic Unity of Theoretical, Historical, and Practical Logic
Concepts are the "cornerstones" for constructing a building of thought. Engels pointed out: "Every new aspect of a science involves a revolution in the technical terms of that science." Original and iconic concepts are unique and creative forms of thinking that distinguish one theory or school of thought from others. An important manifestation of this uniqueness and creativity is a "revolution in terminology." Advancing theoretical innovation through original and iconic concepts is an important method for promoting the Party’s theoretical innovation. The proposal of the concept "high-quality development of the population" holds significant original and iconic meaning in the history of population theory and academia, driving a "revolution in terminology" in the development of population theory.
Reviewing the historical development of population theory, Marx proposed concepts such as "population reproduction" and "relative surplus population." Our Party has always attached great importance to the innovation of population theory, proposing concepts such as "population development" and "eugenics and superior childcare" [2]. Entering the New Era, General Secretary Xi Jinping required "promoting long-term balanced population development" at a symposium with experts in the fields of economy and society, and proposed the new concept of "promoting high-quality development of the population" at the first meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission of the 20th CPC Central Committee. In his profound explanation of this important concept, he proposed terms such as "the new normal of population development," "the comprehensive population dividend," and "the overall quality of the population," emphasizing "persisting in promoting high-quality economic and social development through high-quality development of the population." Among these, the important concept of high-quality development of the population plays a leading role. The shift from "population development" to "high-quality development of the population" represents a leap in the core concepts of population development theory. The "high quality" in high-quality development of the population is not simply equivalent to "high population quality" in the traditional demographic sense. Instead, it includes new requirements across many aspects such as a moderate fertility level and population scale, a rational population structure, higher population quality, and a balanced population distribution. It is a new form of population development that adapts to the requirements of human development and progress and meets the needs of high-quality economic and social development. Precisely because of this, high-quality development of the population is an inheritance and development of existing concepts related to population development, reflecting the innovation of population development theory and providing scientific guidance for understanding and solving China's current population problems. At the same time, high-quality development of the population, together with high-quality economic and social development, constitutes a conceptual system of high-quality development, deepening our understanding of the laws governing high-quality development.
From a historical logic perspective, high-quality development of the population is the result of the evolution of population development, reflecting the unity of the historical laws of population development and historical consciousness. The world history of population development shows that the transition from high birth, high death, and high growth to low birth, low death, and low growth is a basic law. In this process, the contribution of population quantity to economic growth will gradually weaken, while the supporting role of factors such as improved population quality and optimized population distribution on economic development will increasingly strengthen. In this regard, various countries have many experiences and lessons. For example, in some countries, the fruits of economic growth were diluted by excessively rapid population growth; other countries fell into the middle-income trap or even the low-income trap due to insufficient investment in fields such as education and health. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, under the historical conditions of a large population and a thin foundation [3], we took the initiative to carry out population regulation. As the level of economic and social development improved, China's population development began to show trend-like characteristics of low fertility, aging, and regional population differentiation. In response, General Secretary Xi Jinping demanded we "recognize, adapt to, and lead the new normal of population development." Currently, China's economy is at a critical juncture of overcoming difficulties in climbing toward high-quality development, and the driving force of factor inputs such as capital and labor on economic growth is weakening. Promoting high-quality economic and social development through high-quality development of the population and focusing on improving the overall quality of the population is both a historical necessity of population development and a historical consciousness based on absorbing the experiences and lessons of global population development.
From a theoretical logic perspective, high-quality development of the population is a response of the times to major issues of population development, laying the cornerstone of the theoretical system of population with Chinese characteristics. Population issues have always accompanied the process of human social development. Marxism insists on observing population phenomena from the contradictory movements of productive forces and relations of production, and the economic base and superstructure, analyzing the relationship between the reproduction of the population and the reproduction of material goods. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, our Party persisted in the basic positions and viewpoints of Marxist population theory and explored modes of population development under socialist conditions. Under new historical conditions, General Secretary Xi Jinping has applied Marxist population theory to analyze the new trends, characteristics, and problems arising in China's population development, and required the "construction of a theoretical system of population with Chinese characteristics." The proposal of the concept of high-quality development of the population conforms to the requirements of the times, grasps the laws of population development, and—from the strategic height of advancing and expanding Chinese-path modernization—scientifically answers a series of major questions on population development in the New Era. This enriches and develops Marxist population theory and lays the cornerstone of the theoretical system of population with Chinese characteristics.
From a practical logic perspective, high-quality development of the population embodies the people-centered philosophy of development and highlights the value orientation of Chinese-path modernization. The people are the creators of history, and the essence of modernization is the modernization of people. Although the modernization process of Western developed countries began earlier and reached a higher degree of development, it was dominated by the logic of capital and involved external expansion and plunder, leading to a series of contradictions and conflicts. Today, the frequent occurrence of contradictions and social tearing in Western developed countries is largely due to an inability to restrain the greedy nature of capital and solve chronic illnesses such as burgeoning materialism and spiritual poverty. Chinese-path modernization adheres to the people-centered philosophy of development, taking the realization of the people's aspiration for a better life as the starting and ending point of modernization construction, safeguarding the fundamental interests of the people, improving people's well-being, and focusing on maintaining and promoting social fairness and justice and common prosperity for all. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "To do good population work in the New Era, we must conform to the expectations of the masses for a better life and persist in the principal position of the people." Adhering to the people-centered philosophy of development and promoting high-quality development of the population—allowing the fruits of modernization to benefit all people more fairly and achieving greater breakthroughs in creating a high-quality life—provides both an important support for and constitutes an important goal of Chinese-path modernization, highlighting its value orientation.
Profoundly Answering Major Theoretical and Practical Issues of Population Development on the New Journey in the New Era
General Secretary Xi Jinping's important expositions on the high-quality development of the population, combining history and reality, theory and practice, and domestic and international perspectives, systematically answer major theoretical and practical issues such as the relationship between population development and economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological civilization construction in the New Era. This reflects our Party's new understanding of the relationship between population, economy, society, resources, and the environment. It has initially constructed a theoretical system of population with Chinese characteristics, established the grand logic and grand strategy for population development under new historical conditions, and provided scientific guidance for the high-quality development of the population. Since the New Era, under the guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important expositions, the quality of China's population has further improved, and the high-quality development of the population has continued to advance, providing solid demographic support for high-quality economic and social development.
Regarding the relationship between population development and the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation, it clarifies the strategic significance of population development and enriches the theory of world modernization. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "Population development is a major event related to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" and "for a long period to come, the basic national condition of China’s large population will not fundamentally change." Productive forces are the fundamental driving force of human social development and the ultimate cause of all social change and political transformation; people are the most active factor in the productive forces, and talent is the primary resource. Since its founding, our Party has always attached great importance to population issues, continuously deepening its understanding of the laws of population development, and understanding the importance of population development from the height of socialist modernization construction, enhancing the historical depth and strategic height of understanding population issues. Reviewing the world modernization process, the number of countries and regions that have achieved modernization does not exceed 30, and their total population does not exceed 1 billion. Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of a huge population. China's population of over 1.4 billion entering a modernized society as a whole exceeds the sum of existing developed countries. This has no precedent in human history, and its arduousness and complexity are unprecedented. It must be recognized that the strength of the masses is infinite, and the wisdom of the masses is infinite. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "China has a population of over 1.4 billion. When the strength and wisdom of hundreds of millions of people are added together, who can compare?" By promoting high-quality development of the population and persisting in development for the people, relying on the people, and sharing the fruits of development among the people, we can gather the majestic force to comprehensively promote the construction of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation through Chinese-path modernization.
Regarding the relationship between population development and economic and social development, it emphasizes the close integration of "investing in things" with "investing in people," enriching and developing Marxist social reproduction theory. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that to do good population work in the New Era, we must "promote high-quality economic and social development through high-quality development of the population," "conform to the expectations of the masses for a better life, persist in the principal position of the people, closely combine high-quality development of the population with the people's high-quality life, and closely combine 'investing in things' with 'investing in people'." Marxism divides social reproduction into the reproduction of the population and the reproduction of material goods—these are the two aspects of population development and economic and social development. Broadly speaking, population development can be categorized within economic and social development. At the same time, population development has its own particularities. Combining "investing in things" with "investing in people" and high-quality development of the population with the people's high-quality life emphasizes the inherent unity and interaction of population reproduction and material reproduction, while also highlighting the importance of "investing in people," fully embodying that people are the fundamental goal of development. Promoting high-quality development of the population, improving long-term mechanisms for investing in people, and expanding effective investment covering all people and the entire life cycle can cultivate new economic growth points while improving people's well-being. This will provide foundational and strategic support for high-quality development while promoting the comprehensive development of people and the overall progress of society, enriching and developing Marxist social reproduction theory.
Regarding the relationship between population development and ecological civilization construction, it proposes that Chinese-path modernization is the modernization of harmony between humanity and nature, enriching and developing the understanding of the relationship between population, resources, and the environment. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized:
"We must plan the development of our national land space holistically—scientifically arranging production spaces, living spaces, and ecological spaces—according to the principles of balancing population, resources, and the environment, and unifying economic, social, and ecological benefits, so as to leave more space for nature to restore itself." The complex and tight relationship between population and the economy, society, resources, and the environment is a major theme in the history of demographic thought. The size, structure, quality, and distribution of a population exert long-term effects on economic and social development and changes in resources and the environment; conversely, these developments and changes alter human living conditions, exerting positive or negative effects on population development. In our country—the world's largest developing nation—strengthening the construction of ecological civilization [4] and promoting modernization characterized by harmony between humanity and nature will have a global impact.
The new changes and trends appearing in China's population development require us to pay greater attention to their impact on resources and the environment during the developmental process, strengthening overall planning and coordination. At the same time, the people's demand for a beautiful ecological environment is growing ever higher, while the carrying capacity of our population relative to resources and the environment remains in a state of "tight balance." The contradictions between population and development remain prominent in areas recently lifted out of poverty, as well as in ecologically fragile or resource-poor regions. Only by promoting high-quality development of the population, better coordinating the relationship between population and the resource environment, strengthening infrastructure layout in light of the impact of population peaking and distributional shifts, optimizing the regional economic layout and the national land space system, and strengthening ecological protection and restoration, can we better build a Beautiful China and achieve sustainable development.
Regarding the relationship between population development and opening up to the outside world, building a strong domestic market imparts a distinct world significance to high-quality development of the population. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out: "As China's entire population of over 1.4 billion moves into modernization, China will inevitably make a greater contribution to the world economy and provide a larger space for the global business community." He further noted: "The consumption upgrade demands and industrial transformation potential of China's 1.4 billion-plus people will provide a powerful engine for the world economy." Since the reform and opening up began, the massive market formed by China's large population has made significant contributions to global economic growth.
Currently, as changes unseen in a century accelerate their evolution and global economic growth remains sluggish, market demand has become the rarest resource in global competition. China possesses the advantage of an ultra-large-scale market formed by over 1.4 billion people. Fully utilizing, leveraging, and continuously consolidating this advantage can provide robust support for constructing the dual circulation development pattern and provide new momentum for world economic growth. Based on the realities of China's economic development, promoting high-quality development of the population—including establishing effective systems for expanding domestic demand and accelerating the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system to expand and upgrade resident consumption—will better satisfy the people's needs for a better life. Simultaneously, it will make the construction of an ultra-large-scale domestic market a sustainable historical process, contributing more effectively to global economic growth and the well-being of people in all countries.
Regarding the relationship between population development and national security, incorporating population security into the framework of the Overall National Security Outlook [5] clarifies the bottom-line requirements for high-quality development of the population. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: "Population security is the bottom-line requirement for high-quality development of the population. The rise and fall of great powers are often profoundly influenced by their demographic conditions. We must incorporate population security into the framework of the Overall National Security Outlook for planning." Population security is not only a direct manifestation of the Overall National Security Outlook in the demographic sphere; it also has profound impacts on political security, national defense security, economic and social security, and cultural and ideological security. This requires us to enhance our risk awareness, comprehensively implement the Overall National Security Outlook within our population development strategies, and emphasize grasping the interrelationships between various demographic factors, as well as between the population and external factors such as the economy, society, and the resource environment. We must strengthen forward-looking planning and strategic forecasting. By promoting high-quality development of the population and analyzing trends over the next 5, 15, and 30 years—such as population aging, increased life expectancy, rising years of schooling, and changes in the labor force structure—we can preemptively guard against and comprehensively respond to potential security issues within the population system and security challenges between systems. By constantly improving our foresight and initiative, and by taking precautions [6], we can solidify the foundation of population security.
Regarding the relationship between the history and future of population development, we must adhere to dialectical materialism and scientifically grasp the continuity and stage-specific nature of population policies. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "Our implementation of family planning was a major decision made based on the actual national conditions of a specific historical stage," and "we must fully affirm the correctness and effectiveness of the family planning policy." Population policy belongs to the categories of social consciousness and the superstructure; it must change in accordance with changes in social existence or the economic base. If one disconnects population policies from different historical conditions and views the policy of a certain stage or period in isolation, one cannot comprehensively understand the historical logic behind the continuity and stage-specific nature of our country's population policies.
Since the 18th CPC National Congress, in response to new changes in population growth and structure, the Party—based on scientific assessment—has made major strategic deployments to adjust and improve birth policies according to the timing and situation. We have implemented the national strategy to actively respond to population aging and promote long-term balanced population development. At the same time, the Party emphasizes the role of family culture in promoting population development, proposing to "actively cultivate a new type of marriage and childbearing culture, and strengthen guidance for young people’s views on love, marriage, childbirth, and family." This enhances the internal capacity of families to maintain the stability of their "cultural genes" while achieving creative transformation in the face of external environmental changes, injecting cultural strength into high-quality development of the population.
Promoting Mutual Adaptation of Population Development and Economic-Social Development to Synchronously Achieve High-Quality Development
General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: "Population decline has both advantages and disadvantages for economic and social development; we cannot look at only one side. Some issues must be viewed over the long term, and we should not rush to conclusions. We must oppose both 'demographic determinism' and 'demographic irrelevancy' and work to embrace advantages while avoiding disadvantages." In recent years, as China has transitioned from a stage of incremental population development to one of reductive development, certain erroneous views have emerged claiming that China's "population dividend" has vanished. Some have even concocted the so-called "China population collapse theory" to talk down China's economic growth prospects. For this reason, we must conduct an objective analysis.
The population dividend is related not only to the quantity and structure of the population, but even more so to population quality, economic policies, and supporting measures. China’s existing population and labor force size remain enormous; the current volume of population reduction is limited, the education level of the entire population continues to improve, and the "comprehensive population dividend" still possesses a clear advantage. Population reduction will bring some unfavorable impacts, such as a decrease in the labor force and a weakening of consumption and investment momentum. However, it also has positive effects, such as forcing economic development to shift from extensive expansion to intensive development. Overall, to profoundly understand and grasp General Secretary Xi Jinping's important expositions on high-quality development of the population, we must view the impact of population reduction dialectically. We must implement the spirit of the fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [7] and guide the trend to facilitate the mutual adaptation of population development and economic-social development, thereby achieving high-quality development in sync.
First, adhere to the Party's comprehensive leadership over population work in the New Era. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "Governing the world's most populous country over the long term, with its long history and vast scale, presents both the immense advantage of being able to accomplish great tasks and unique challenges in governing the Party and the country." Promoting high-quality development of the population is a complex systemic project. We must adhere to the Party’s comprehensive leadership, particularly the centralized and unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee, ensuring that the Party always oversees the whole situation and coordinates all parties. On the basis of actively recognizing, adapting to, and leading the "new normal" of population development, we must strengthen top-level design and collaborative promotion. We must establish and improve leadership and coordination mechanisms to provide a fundamental guarantee for promoting high-quality development of the population. Simultaneously, we must do a good job in public communication and guidance to create a favorable atmosphere for actively responding to the population issues encountered on the road ahead.
Second, adhere to the people-centered development philosophy. Population work concerns individual development, family happiness, and the future of the nation. Only by adhering to the people-centered development philosophy, respecting demographic laws, improving service and guarantee policies, and promoting common participation and shared development, can we continuously enhance the people's sense of gain and happiness. To this end, we must start by solving the most immediate and practical interest problems that concern the people most. We must persist in doing our best within our means [8] to protect and improve people's livelihoods during development. We should improve the basic public service system, strengthen the construction of inclusive, basic, and "safety-net" [bottom-line] livelihoods, and refine the social security, health promotion, and policy systems. While continuously satisfying the people’s aspirations for a better life, we will promote the optimization of population structure, the improvement of overall population quality, the rational distribution of modernized human resources, and long-term balanced population development.
Third, grasp the principal contradiction. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "In recent years, significant changes have occurred in China's population development, facing both the pressure of a large population and the challenges brought by structural transformation." This is mainly reflected in the fact that China's population development is not yet fully adapted to the requirements of economic and social development. On one hand, population aging and low fertility are basic laws of demographic development, and their overall trends are difficult to reverse. On the other hand, while high-quality development of our population has achieved significant results, there is still a gap compared to developed countries and the people's growing needs for a better life. For example, the supply of high-quality population services for all groups and across the entire life cycle is insufficient; weaknesses remain in services for the elderly and the very young ("the old and the small"); and differences in population development levels persist between urban and rural areas and between regions. Therefore, population work must shift from primarily regulating quantity to improving quality, stabilizing the total amount, optimizing structure, and ensuring smooth mobility. We must refine the population service system covering all people throughout the life cycle, advocate for positive views on marriage and childbearing, comprehensively improve the general quality of the population, and build high-quality human resources through high-quality development of the population. In particular, we must enhance the capacity to serve "the old and the small," improve policy mechanisms for the coordinated development of elderly care programs and industries, optimize the supply of basic elderly care services, and improve the urban and rural elderly care service network. We must also optimize birth support policies and incentives, improve the maternity insurance system, and develop inclusive childcare and integrated preschool services.
Fourth, persist in the systems concept. Population development and economic-social development are organically unified. By persisting in the systems concept and effectively integrating population into economic and social policies—fully considering demographic factors in major decisions such as economic and social development strategic plans, strategic adjustment of the economic structure, investment projects and the layout of productive forces, coordination of urban-rural and regional relations, and sustainable development—we can continuously enhance the adaptability of economic and social development to population development. To this end, we must firmly establish a "Great Population Perspective." We must conduct in-depth research and judgment on the complex impacts of population changes on economic and social development, promoting the "systematic integration effect" of population policies with fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, investment, consumption, ecological, and regional policies. For example, in industrial development, we should build a modernized industrial system that accords with new demographic trends; in urban-rural integrated development, we should follow population mobility trends to promote the integration of urban-rural industrial development, infrastructure, and public services. Simultaneously, we must strengthen population statistics and dynamic monitoring and early warning systems, establishing and improving evaluation mechanisms for the impact of major decisions on population and fertility, using the systems concept to plan responses to population development and security issues.
Fifth, persist in reform and innovation. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: "Adhere to promoting high-quality development of the population through reform and innovation." By deepening reforms in key areas and crucial links based on the realities of China's population changes, we can accelerate the formation of ideological concepts, laws, regulations, institutional mechanisms, and public policy systems conducive to high-quality development of the population. This will provide the momentum and support needed. To this end, we must fully recognize the complexity and difficulty of population work in the New Era, focusing on breaking down institutional barriers, deepening the reform and innovation of education and health sectors, and actively promoting the improvement of relevant laws and policies to strengthen the rule-of-law guarantee for population development. At the same time, we must focus on the systematic integration, synergy, and efficiency of reform measures, enhancing the fairness and accessibility of institutional arrangements. By improving the systematic, holistic, and synergetic nature of our policies, we will continuously promote the well-rounded development of individuals and the common prosperity of all people in the process of driving high-quality development of the population.