Bu Chao: Why the Critical Period is Critical
General Secretary Xi Jinping has emphasized: "Achieving socialist modernization is a historical process of step-by-step progression and continuous development and progress." Historical development is a unity of continuity and stages. Within this process of step-by-step progression, there exist certain developmental stages that can be termed "critical periods." The Outline of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposes: "The period of the 15th Five-Year Plan holds an important position of connecting the past and the future in the process of basically realizing socialist modernization; it is a critical period for consolidating the foundation and launching full-scale efforts." How we understand this critical period, and why a critical period is critical, can be profoundly analyzed through the warp and weft of history and reality.
Duan Yucai's Notes on Shuowen Jiezi [1] from the Qing Dynasty explains the term guanjian (关键; critical/key) in this way: Guan (关) is "a horizontal wooden beam held across a door," meaning a latch or bolt. Jian (键) refers to "the crossbar of a ding [2]. It is the wooden bar that crosses the ears [handles] on both sides of the vessel's mouth to lift it; without it, the ding cannot be lifted after cooking." It is a crossbar that passes through the upright ears on both sides of the vessel, very similar in shape and function to a door bolt. Whether one can "pass through the door and enter the house" or "lift a weight of a thousand jun" [3] is entirely determined by the guan and the jian. Using these two layers of literal meaning to grasp the critical periods of history is quite enlightening.
Looking across the world, there are many important periods that serve as historical gateways. For instance, if the Soviet Union had not seized the opportunity of two Five-Year Plans to complete industrialization, it would have been impossible to resist German fascism, and the history of World War II might have been rewritten. The Soviet Union would not have crossed the historical threshold to become one pole of a bipolar world. A mere two five-year periods were able to lift the thousand-fold weight of a great power's destiny and even the destiny of the world over a century. Thus, what constitutes a critical period and when it arrives is something those who govern a nation cannot fail to examine.
Since the founding of New China, our Party has anchored itself to the great cause of national rejuvenation, consistently advancing socialist modernization and scientifically grasping each critical period in the modernization process, demonstrating a strong sense of historical self-awareness. As early as 1964, when planning the "3rd Five-Year Plan," our Party deeply recognized the issue of critical periods in the socialist modernization process, proposing: "Starting from the 3rd Five-Year Plan, the development of our national economy can be considered in two steps: first, to establish an independent and relatively complete industrial system and national economic system; second, to comprehensively realize the modernization of agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology, placing our economy in the front ranks of the world. The period of the 3rd Five-Year Plan is a critical period for realizing the first step of these tasks."
After the start of Reform and Opening-up, our Party again perceived critical periods from the historical perspective of reform and the strategic height of comprehensively building a moderately prosperous society [4], noting that "the '7th Five-Year Plan' period is a critical period for our country's economic development strategy and economic system to further transition from the old model to a new one," and emphasizing that the "11th Five-Year Plan" and "12th Five-Year Plan" periods were critical periods for comprehensively building a moderately prosperous society. Today, based on the "two-step" strategic arrangement [5] for comprehensively building a great modern socialist country, our Party has made the major judgment that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a critical period.
History shows that our Party always scientifically grasps critical periods, always linking them to the strategic direction and central tasks of a particular stage of development. It perceives the staged characteristics of every five-year period through a "big picture view of history" [6], accurately judging the position of critical periods and making targeted strategic plans accordingly. Deeply imbued with a sense of history, our Party recognizes the "key" (latch) of history, leading the Chinese people across critical historical thresholds and successfully making critical periods the fulcrum to leverage the thousand-fold weight of history.
Examining several critical periods in the process of socialist modernization within the long river of time, the criticality of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is unusual and extraordinary in significance. Previous critical periods were historical stages of continuous preparation and creating premises for modernization, yet they were still at a considerable distance from modernization itself. The "15th Five-Year Plan" period, however, aims directly at the goal of basically realizing socialist modernization; it is the "final shot on goal" [7] in the process. By taking this step well and achieving decisive progress, the basic realization of modernization will be assured of victory. General Secretary Xi Jinping has called the "15th Five-Year Plan" period a "time window," emphasizing the need to "seize this time window." This is a strategic judgment intertwined with an awareness of potential dangers and an awareness of opportunities. A time window is a historical stage where favorable conditions from all sides are concentrated within a limited time; it must not be missed. In a world woven with change and chaos, only by seizing these critical five years can we successfully respond to various uncertainties through the certainty of our own high-quality development.
Looking at this critical period from the perspective of reality, the world's once-in-a-century changes are accelerating, providing many favorable factors for actively maneuvering international space and shaping the external environment to advance socialist modernization. Although the dregs of Cold War mentality are resurfacing, and the game between major powers is becoming more complex and intense—and while the comprehensive containment, encirclement, and suppression implemented against us by a few countries may still escalate—the "Global South" is rising as a group, and emerging market countries and developing countries have entered the fast lane of development. These countries have massive populations, huge market potential, and a strong desire for development, providing broad space for us to advance socialist modernization through win-win cooperation. The profound adjustment in the international balance of forces is pregnant with new opportunities. If utilized well, we can turn crises into opportunities and achieve even greater victories under seemingly difficult circumstances.
Now, with less than ten years remaining until the basic realization of modernization, the next five years are critical to whether we can cross the threshold of modernization. This criticality is reflected in the fact that, although our country's developmental foundation is more solid, there still exist certain bottlenecks, constraints, and weak links in modernization construction that affect the character and quality of modernization. For example, the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development remains prominent, there are "stuck points" and "blockages" in the internal circulation [8], and the modernization of agriculture and rural areas lags relatively behind. The closer we get to the "final shot" stage, the more we must successfully pass the tests of bottleneck constraints and weak links. If these problems are not resolved well, they could easily become obstacles that delay the overall situation.
The Outline of the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes "consolidating and expanding advantages, breaking through bottleneck constraints, and strengthening weak links," and "promoting major breakthroughs in strategic tasks that concern the overall situation of Chinese-path modernization." These are targeted at the aforementioned issues. Achieving major breakthroughs in strategic tasks as scheduled will drive the whole situation forward, powerfully and orderly advancing the implementation of various goals and tasks in the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline. By overcoming difficulties, fighting risks, and meeting challenges with a spirit of historical initiative, we will promote the final accumulation and leap of socialist modernization from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Source: People's Daily (March 24, 2026) Editor: Huihui