Wang Yiming: Advancing Chinese Modernization with High-Quality Development
The report of the 20th National Congress of the CPC pointed out that high-quality development is the primary task of building a modern socialist country in all respects. It explicitly stated that achieving high-quality development is an essential requirement of Chinese-path modernization, highlighting its overall and strategic significance for the modernization process. Advancing Chinese-path modernization through high-quality development is not an abstract concept but a concrete one; it must be implemented within the "two-step" strategic arrangement for fully building a great modern socialist country [1]. The report of the 20th National Congress set out the general objectives for basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035. These include: bringing per capita GDP to a new level, reaching the level of moderately developed countries; achieving high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and joining the ranks of the world's most innovative countries; building a modern economic system and forming a new development pattern; and ensuring that carbon emissions decline steadily after reaching a peak, while fundamentally improving the ecological environment. Given the profound and complex changes in the external environment and the situation China faces as it enters a new stage of development, achieving these goals remains an arduous task. Only by advancing Chinese-path modernization through high-quality development can we create the necessary conditions to realize the goals of socialist modernization.
Focusing on raising total factor productivity, advancing Chinese-path modernization by promoting effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy, and striving to reach the goal of per capita GDP at the level of a moderately developed country.
There is currently no clear definition of what constitutes a "moderately developed country." According to World Bank standards, the threshold for per capita Gross National Income (GNI) in developed countries is $20,000, with an average level as high as $48,000. Excluding smaller economies, the average per capita GDP of developed countries is roughly between $35,000 and $40,000. If we take $35,000 to $40,000 as the standard for a moderately developed country, China still needs to climb two major steps by 2035. First, per capita GDP must cross the $20,000 threshold to join the ranks of developed countries; this requires an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.8% from 2021 to 2035. Second, per capita GDP must reach $35,000 to $40,000 to attain the level of a moderately developed country. Per capita GDP calculated in current US dollars is influenced not only by the economic growth rate but also by price and exchange rate levels. This necessitates promoting a reasonable appreciation of the exchange rate by improving the quality of economic development. Therefore, to reach the level of a moderately developed country by 2035, we must not only maintain a relatively high economic growth rate—doubling per capita GDP from 2020 levels to reach $20,000—but also drive exchange rate appreciation through higher development quality.
The quality of economic development is primarily reflected in the increase of total factor productivity (TFP). Entering the stage of high-quality development, factor conditions like capital and labor, as well as marginal output, have changed—meaning the production function has shifted. Meanwhile, the "hard constraints" of resources and the environment continue to tighten. It is no longer possible to drive economic growth primarily through factor inputs as was done during the high-speed growth phase; we must shift toward relying more on productivity gains. International comparisons show a significant gap between China's TFP and that of developed countries. To catch up, our TFP must increase at a faster rate than theirs. Furthermore, the level of a "moderately developed country" is dynamic; we aim to reach the 2035 standard. This requires us to strive for the fastest possible GDP growth on one hand, while focusing on raising TFP on the other, achieving effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth. As potential economic growth rates decline, raising TFP and its contribution to growth becomes especially critical for reaching the per capita GDP target.
Focusing on achieving high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology, advancing Chinese-path modernization by accelerating the construction of a scientific and technological powerhouse, and striving for the goal of joining the front ranks of innovative countries.
According to the Global Innovation Index 2022 report published by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), China ranks 11th in the world, having already joined the ranks of innovative countries as the only emerging market economy in the top 30. In recent years, China's standing in the global innovation landscape has risen rapidly. In some frontier fields, it has entered the stages of "running alongside" or "leading," becoming a major scientific and technological power with significant influence. However, compared to the requirements of a scientific and technological powerhouse, there are still shortcomings and weaknesses. We remain dependent on others for some key core technologies, and "bottleneck" (ka bozi) [2] problems urgently need to be solved. Total investment in basic research is insufficient, its structure is suboptimal, original innovation capacity is relatively weak, and there is a lack of "from 0 to 1" original results.
Currently, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is developing rapidly, making technological innovation the high ground of competition between major powers. Faced with the grim situation of international competition and external containment and suppression, China must place innovation at the heart of the overall modernization drive. We must strengthen national strategic scientific and technological forces, pool resources for scientific breakthroughs, enhance independent innovation capabilities, achieve self-control over key core technologies, and take the initiative in international competition. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized, while participating in a deliberation with the Jiangsu delegation at the first session of the 14th National People's Congress, that "whether we can build a great modern socialist country in all respects on schedule depends on self-reliance and strength in science and technology." The report of the 20th National Congress emphasized that education, science and technology, and talent are the foundational and strategic supports for building a modern socialist country in all respects. We must better coordinate these resources and advance technological innovation as a "three-in-one" [3] entity. Through synergy and systemic integration, we must achieve strategic breakthroughs in basic research, core technologies, and original innovation capabilities, creating new advantages in innovation to advance Chinese-path modernization through high-quality development.
Focusing on enhancing the resilience and safety levels of industrial and supply chains, advancing Chinese-path modernization by accelerating the formation of a new development pattern, and striving to achieve the goal of building a modern economic system.
A modern economic system is the foundation for building a modern socialist country in all respects. For a nation to be strong, its economic system must be strong. The core of a modern economic system is a modernized industrial system. After more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China has formed a vast and well-equipped industrial system, becoming the only country in the world to possess all industrial categories listed in the UN industrial classification. However, the industrial system is generally "large but not strong, wide but not deep, and comprehensive but not refined." It remains at the low-to-medium end of the international division of labor. There are many "blockages" and "choke points" in industrial and supply chains, and some core segments and key technologies are subject to external control. Currently, global industrial and supply chains are accelerating their adjustment and restructuring. Faced with this deep adjustment and the "decoupling and breaking of chains" [4] practiced by certain Western countries, we must place greater importance on enhancing the resilience and safety of our industrial and supply chains, striving to create chains that are independent, controllable, and secure.
Accelerating the construction of a dual circulation new development pattern is the strategic pivot for promoting high-quality development. We must organically combine the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system. We must keep the focus of economic development on the real economy, advance new-type industrialization, promote the deep integration of next-generation information technology with manufacturing, and accelerate the digital, intelligent, and green transformation of manufacturing to elevate the status and competitiveness of traditional industries in the international division of labor. We must seize the opportunities of the new scientific and technological revolution, accelerate the R&D and industrial application of frontier technologies, and cultivate strategic emerging industries such as new energy, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new materials, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection to seize the high ground of international industrial competition. We must accelerate the development of the digital economy, promote the deep integration of digital and real economies, build an intelligent manufacturing ecosystem, promote the "5G + Industrial Internet" model, and open up new fields and tracks for development to constantly shape new drivers and advantages for growth.
Focusing on promoting green and low-carbon transformation, advancing Chinese-path modernization by promoting harmony between humanity and nature, and striving to achieve the goal of carbon emissions declining steadily after reaching a peak.
Ensuring that carbon emissions decline steadily after reaching a peak refers to the process where the growth rate of carbon emissions drops to zero and then begins a downward trend. Looking at international carbon emission trajectories, many early-industrialized countries reached their peak in the 1990s or earlier, but the decline thereafter has been very slow. In the decade of the New Era, our Party has grasped the construction of ecological civilization with unprecedented intensity, driving historical, transformative, and comprehensive changes. Over these ten years, China supported an average economic growth of 6.6% with an average annual energy consumption growth of 3%, reduced CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 34.4%, and lowered the share of coal in primary energy consumption from 68.5% to 56%. The scale of renewable energy development and the production and sales of new energy vehicles both rank first in the world. However, China's industrial structure remains heavy, its energy structure is coal-dependent, and its energy efficiency is relatively low, posing significant challenges to the goal of steady decline after peaking. The key to peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and ensuring a steady decline thereafter lies in the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.
The key to actively and steadily promoting this energy transformation is handling the relationship between green transformation and energy security. From the perspective of traditional energy, China's basic resource endowment is characterized as "rich in coal, poor in oil, and low in gas." However, from the perspective of new energy, China's renewable energy resources, such as wind, solar, and biomass, are its most abundant. While China cannot be self-sufficient in high-quality fossil fuels like oil and gas, and long-term reliance on coal is unsustainable, its rich renewable resources can ensure long-term sustainable supply and allow for a gradual decoupling from fossil fuel dependence. Trends suggest that after peaking, China's carbon emissions may enter a plateau period, or experience "multiple peaks" and fluctuations before declining. The most important thing is to maintain strategic resolve and persist in the carbon reduction process. This requires us to base our actions on our energy resource endowment and adhere to the principle of "establishing the new before breaking the old" [5]. We must implement carbon peaking actions in a planned and step-by-step manner, ensuring the phased exit of fossil fuels is based on the safe and reliable substitution by renewable energy. We must gradually increase the proportion of installed capacity and power generation from wind, solar, and biomass, better utilizing zero-carbon energy to ensure and increase energy supply, and thereby achieving the goal of a steady decline after peaking.
In summary, raising total factor productivity, achieving high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology, enhancing the resilience and safety of industrial and supply chains, and promoting green and low-carbon transformation are the primary focus points for advancing Chinese-path modernization through high-quality development in the coming period. We must firmly grasp the theme of high-quality development; fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy; unswervingly deepen reform and opening up; and deeply transform our development model. By driving changes in quality through changes in efficiency and momentum, we will open up new prospects for Chinese-path modernization.
(The author is the Vice Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges)