Yang Juhua: The Relationship Between Population Aging and Chinese-style Modernization
Abstract: Chinese-path modernization is not only the modernization of a massive population, but also the modernization of a massive elderly population. From the twin perspectives of opportunity and challenge, and across the three dimensions of demographic, economic, and cultural modernization, this article examines the relationship between population aging and Chinese-path modernization. It explores possible pathways to transform the modernization challenges of aging into opportunities and to turn the modernization opportunities of aging into reality. The results find that the growing number of elderly persons is both a component of the modernization of a massive population and an important force in advancing Chinese-path modernization. Facing the New Era, their vast numbers, continuously improving capital endowments, and powerful (non-)productive potential help to form a "longevity dividend" to substitute for the gradually disappearing "demographic dividend." At the same time, the overlapping of aging with low fertility, the "aging of the aged" (increasing proportion of the oldest-old), and disability will bring greater complexity and uncertainty to the development of modernization. In the new journey of Chinese-path modernization, it is necessary to accurately assess the relationship between population aging and modernization, strive to build an "age-friendly, shared-by-all" society, leverage the cultural value of the elderly in the development of material and spiritual civilization, and promote the synchronized development of high-quality development of the elderly population with Chinese-path modernization.
Introduction Currently, China is in a new development stage where the accelerated development of population aging and the steady advancement of modernization construction overlap. The ultra-large scale of the elderly population and the rapid process of population aging constitute the fundamental landscape for the new journey of Chinese-path modernization. Chinese-path modernization is not only the modernization of a massive population, but also the modernization of a massive elderly population. On the one hand, young-old [1] individuals account for a high proportion of the elderly population. Their human capital is constantly being optimized, their economic capital is relatively substantial, and for most of their elderly phase, their perception of self-aging is relatively positive. They have both the will and ability to continue participating in society and contributing to their families, constituting the human and talent base for actively responding to population aging, which can provide strong impetus for the construction of Chinese-path modernization. On the other hand, the rapid aging process is characterized by prominent features such as "getting old before getting rich" (未富先老) and "getting old before being prepared" (未备先老). This may pose potential challenges to total factor productivity, as well as care, medical treatment, social security, and assistance, potentially constraining high-quality population development and the use of high-quality population development to support Chinese-path modernization. How to comprehensively, systematically, objectively, and scientifically understand the risks and opportunities brought by aging to modernization in a brand-new demographic environment, and create conditions conducive to high-quality population development, is a major subject that requires serious reflection and joint participation from the whole of society.
The primary purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between population aging and Chinese-path modernization from the dimensions of demographic, economic, and cultural modernization at both the opportunity and challenge levels. It reflects on path measures to stimulate the potential of the elderly population and promote the coordinated advancement of the "Five Modernizations" [2] (including massive population scale) in Chinese-path modernization. It responds to the following research questions: In the era of the knowledge economy, can the massive scale and continuously improving capital endowments of the elderly, and the (non-)productive potential inherent in the young-old, form a "longevity dividend" to substitute for the gradually disappearing "demographic dividend"? When low-fertility aging, the "aging of the aged," and disability overlap, what obstacles will they form for the realization of the strategic goals of Chinese-path modernization? How can we balance the effective mitigation of risks with the full grasping of opportunities, turning "potential" into "strength" and "possibility" into "reality," to promote the synchronized development of high-quality development of the elderly population with Chinese-path modernization?
Chinese-path modernization is all-encompassing, broad-ranging, and deep-level, involving the demographic, economic, spiritual-cultural, ecological-civilizational, and political fields. The entry of over 1.4 billion people as a whole into a modernized society—a scale exceeding the combined population of existing developed countries—has population scale as its structural base and high-quality population development as its important support. Advancing the new journey of modernization in the context of a massive population scale and rapid aging highlights the uniqueness of Chinese-path modernization. It requires fully implementing the national strategy to actively respond to population aging, promoting the modernization of the elderly population, and writing a new chapter in human modernization models; it also requires activating the potential of the elderly population and leveraging the "longevity dividend" to support Chinese-path modernization with high-quality population development. Below, the author collapses the five major characteristics of modernization into three dimensions—demographic modernization, economic modernization, and cultural modernization—to discuss the relationship between population aging and modernization from the dual perspectives of the quantity and quality of the elderly population.
I. Population Aging and Opportunities for Chinese-path Modernization The process of modernization to date has continuously improved the human capital endowment of the Chinese population, including the elderly. it has enhanced the independence of the elderly, their pursuit of a high-quality life, and their confidence and ability to achieve their own modernization. It has improved their social productivity and economic vitality, expanding the paths and methods by which they contribute to modernization.
(1) The modernization of the elderly themselves is an inherent requirement of Chinese-path modernization The total volume of the elderly population and the modernization of a massive population are complementary. The modernization of the elderly themselves is an indispensable part of Chinese-path modernization, concerning its integrity and comprehensiveness. Improvements in health capital, the optimization of educational capital and labor skills, and the substantial increase in economic capital have liberated the elderly from a mere state of natural existence. Combined with a more positive attitude toward self-aging, this has formed a "population quality effect." This helps promote the well-rounded development of individuals and facilitates the coordinated advancement of Chinese-path modernization. Conversely, economic growth and social progress brought about by common prosperity and the development of material civilization also help improve the well-being of the elderly and promote the modernization of the person.
First, the vast quantity amasses a massive population scale effect. The elderly are both the subjects of the 1.4 billion people entering modernized society as a whole and an important force in promoting the realization of Chinese-path modernization. In 2022, the national population aged 60 and above exceeded 280 million, accounting for about 20% of the total population. In the new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country, this number will continue to grow, reaching 400 million and exceeding 30% of the total population by 2035—when socialist modernization is basically realized—and reaching its peak around 2050 when a modern socialist country is fully built. During this period, the proportion of "young-old" aged 60–69 remained consistently high, numbering 147.4 million in 2020, exceeding half of the total elderly population. This figure will reach 220 million in 2035 (53.6% of the elderly) and 210 million in 2050 (43%) (Lin Jinlong, Mu Guangzong, 2023). A massive population scale and a massive elderly population scale are the primary characteristics of Chinese-path modernization, meaning that the Chinese-path modernization model must differ from existing developed-country models and possess profound Chinese characteristics. Among these, promoting the modernization of the elderly is an important Chinese characteristic. On the one hand, only when all people, including the elderly, enter a modernized society as a whole can Chinese-path modernization be truly realized. If the elderly fail to achieve common prosperity, and if their levels of material and spiritual civilization are not correspondingly improved, the realization of Chinese-path modernization cannot be declared. On the other hand, high-level development of the elderly can transform the complexity and challenges brought by a massive population into developmental advantages. They remain a force that cannot be ignored in the new journey of Chinese-path modernization, containing a massive scale effect.
Second, the improvement of human capital endowment has enhanced the "modernity" of the individual. The essence of Chinese-path modernization is comprehensive modernization centered on the modernization of the person. Improved health status and higher educational levels have created fundamental conditions for the elderly to achieve their own modernization and promote the modernization of a massive population. Benefiting from improved medical and health conditions and living standards, the life expectancy of the Chinese population has continuously extended. Data from the National Health Commission shows that in 2021, China's average life expectancy exceeded 78 years, and healthy life expectancy reached 68.7 years in 2018. In 2020, the Seventh National Population Census (Seven-Pupu [3]) data showed that the average life expectancy for women reached 80.9 years, and over 90% of the population under 70 were relatively healthy. The educational capital of the elderly has also greatly improved: in 2020, their average years of schooling exceeded 7 years, and those with high school education or above accounted for 13.9% of all elderly people. As those born during China's second baby boom in the "post-1960s" gradually enter old age, the human capital of the elderly will be even higher. It is estimated that by 2035, their average years of schooling will reach 8.4 years, and 9.8 years by 2050. Seniors with high school education or above will exceed 35%, and those with higher education will exceed 80.5 million (Du Peng, Li Long, 2022). The improvement of human capital endowment inevitably brings about an increase in economic capital. Between 2010 and 2020, the economic status of the elderly continued to strengthen, with their main source of livelihood shifting from dependence on family members to retirement pensions. The generation entering old age during the new journey of Chinese-path modernization consists of the beneficiaries of the "reform dividend," possessing more substantial and stable economic capital. In 2019, households with heads aged 56–64 had the highest average total assets, followed by households aged 46–55. The improvement in various human capital endowments can extend their labor time, improve their living standards, enable them to lead more active and meaningful lives, and become an important force in consolidating social wealth reserves to actively respond to population aging, stimulating consumption and investment, and promoting economic modernization.
Third, a positive attitude toward aging has enhanced the internal drive, ability, and confidence to achieve common prosperity. The continuous improvement of human capital endowment, the accumulation of scientific knowledge, and the expansion of opportunities for social participation have, to a large extent, changed the traditional thinking among the elderly themselves that they are "old and useless" or that "the boat has reached the pier and the bus has reached the station" [4] (老而无用, 船到码头车到站). It has enhanced their awareness of self-rights and their capacity for discourse, widening their field of activity and space for survival, shifting from a purely private sphere to a dual public-private sphere, and their role identity has shifted from passive to active, from object to subject. China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) data shows that respondents' answers regarding the age at which one "becomes old" were all around 70, and most elderly people still have the will to continue participating in society (Yang Jiahua, 2022). It can be seen that the elderly's evaluation of their own aging age has broken through the limitations of a single chronological, natural, or actual age, and is more positive than current social attitudes toward the elderly. This means that the "new elderly" are more likely to achieve self-transcendence and subsequently harvest a "longevity dividend." Simultaneously, this will further improve their social capital, increase their income levels, and enable them to lead a higher quality of life, providing powerful dynamic and potential energy for common prosperity and making them both creators and beneficiaries of Chinese-path modernization.
(2) The productive potential of the elderly is a necessary support for economic modernization Common prosperity is the essential requirement of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and realizing the people’s aspiration for a better life is the starting point and ultimate goal of modernization construction. Older persons have always been a precious asset for China's economic and social construction. Today's great cause of building a strong country and national rejuvenation likewise cannot do without the young-old, who are abundant in human resources and increasingly rich in human capital endowment. Their participation affects the overall process and degree of realization of Chinese-path modernization. Current and future elderly people remain a group with vitality, potential, strength, and ability; they are a precious wealth rather than a burden, and a rich resource rather than merely consumers of resources (Kerschner and Pegues, 1998). This can be examined from three aspects: hands (labor), population, and brains (intellect).
First, the elderly constitute an abundant productive resource. Currently, many older persons possess relatively substantial financial means, maintain more stable mindsets, and exhibit higher work efficiency in certain areas, which helps promote the realization of "productive aging" and economic modernization. The elderly are direct contributors to economic modernization. China's elderly population is the largest in the world, and the next decade will see a surge in this group, particularly among the "young-old," leading to a rapid accumulation of productive potential. By stimulating a "second demographic dividend" and a "longevity dividend," they can form the underlying strength [5] of Chinese-path modernization (Yang Juhua, 2022). Increasing the labor participation rate of the young-old is conducive to balancing the age structure of the labor market and ensuring the quantity and quality of labor supply; it serves as a vital lever for high-quality economic circulation (Lu Jiehua and Lin Jiaqi, 2022). Continual improvements in human capital will consolidate the foundation for the young-old to participate more extensively and deeply in modernization, helping to better transform individual productive resources into socio-economic benefits. The continuous supply of high-quality young-old human resources may open a window of opportunity for the development and utilization of elderly labor. Older persons can also exert a "shadow dividend," releasing the productive potential of their adult children by assuming family roles and thereby increasing their children's labor productivity: intergenerational support from the elderly can increase the employment rate of adult children by 13.8 percentage points (Yang Chenggang and Sun Xiaohai, 2020). Furthermore, the social unpaid or low-paid activities of the young-old, such as volunteer services, can save economic costs for corresponding positions and indirectly create economic and social benefits through capital conversion.
Second, the elderly possess enormous consumption potential. The improvement of human capital endowments has enhanced the consumption capacity of the elderly; this increase in capacity and the release of potential help strengthen effective supply, becoming a "ballast stone" for the stable operation of the economy. As the income levels of the elderly rise, both consumption concepts and behaviors are shifting. Consumption demands suppressed during their working years may be released after retirement, making the elderly stage a period of high consumption in the life course and boosting the "silver economy." Regarding consumption levels, from 2011 to 2020, their consumption level increased by 107% (Gong et al., 2022); it is estimated that by 2030 and 2050, their consumption potential will account for 8.27% and 12.20% of GDP, respectively. From 2016 to 2020, the annual growth rate of the silver economy market was 25.6%, reaching 5.4 trillion yuan in 2020 and increasing further to 5.9 trillion yuan in 2021. Industries related to elderly health, products, services, livability, finance, culture, and information technology contain immense development potential. Breaking down consumption types, the elderly still primarily consume for daily life, with the consumption Engel coefficient reaching as high as 61.16% in 2018; however, between 2014 and 2018, their consumption structure was continuously optimized (Yang Fan et al., 2020). The consumption tendencies of the elderly are increasingly characterized by enjoyment-oriented and smart-tech features. On one hand, they place greater emphasis on quality-oriented consumption such as health, wellness, and entertainment/socializing. In 2015, the number of elderly tourists already exceeded 20% of the national total; thereafter, their average annual travel days exceeded those of young people by 15 days. From 2016 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of consumption by middle-aged and elderly tourists reached 23%, exceeding 7000 billion yuan in 2021 (Du Haitao, 2020). In 2020, 23.9% of elderly tourists spent more than 5,000 yuan, higher than the younger population, making them a mainstay of individual tourism consumption. At the same time, influenced by the mobile internet, the consumption arena for the elderly has shifted from traditional offline channels to a combination of online and offline. By the end of 2020, elderly internet users accounted for 14.3% of all netizens, and the usage rate of online payments reached 70.7%. Online consumption is accelerating its penetration into the elderly group, with consumption patterns and content gradually showing "smart" characteristics (Yuan Xin, 2021). In 2022, the number of elderly shoppers, transaction volume, and per capita transaction volume on JD.com were 1.8, 3, and 1.7 times those of 2018, respectively (Li Wanxiang, 2022), while the growth rate of the elderly consumer market on Alibaba reached 20.9% (Ouyang Jie et al., 2023).
Third, the elderly possess a high willingness for social participation. The willingness to participate in productive activities is an endogenous drive to continue self-value. Census data indicates that from 2010 to 2020, many young-old individuals had a strong desire for continued (re-)employment and possessed robust labor capacity; the number of elderly people engaged in productive activities shows an increasing trend. In 2020, 30% of the young-old (aged 60–69) still relied on labor income as their primary source of livelihood. At the same time, among those aged 60–65, 62.1% intended to seek re-employment. In 2022, on the 51job platform, 68% of elderly individuals expressed a strong desire for re-employment after retirement; the number of active job seekers over 55 on the BOSS Zhipin platform rose by 27% year-on-year. The 2018 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) shows that age 66 is the turning point where the productive contribution of the elderly population begins to decline from its peak; prior to this, they play more of a productive role (Wang Yongmei et al., 2023). The strong willingness of the (young) elderly to participate in productive activities helps activate their tacit knowledge. The elderly are also "sages"; they weave unique life values through the length of their survival, the thickness of their living, and the depth of their lives, acting as creators, inheritors, and disseminators of human knowledge and production experience. The experience and skills they have accumulated over long-term work and life constitute invaluable human capital that is not easily replaced by new workers, also making the human resource cost for employers to hire the elderly far lower than the cost of training new personnel. Elderly employees working alongside young employees facilitates the intergenerational transmission of "tacit knowledge" (Wuestner, 2012); a new stage of life can begin after 60. In an era of longevity, the elderly group holds a new demographic dividend, which can provide an important realistic foundation for Chinese-path modernization through productive aging. Broadly speaking, the tacit knowledge of the elderly can not only directly create economic value but also play a role in political and cultural spheres, constructing a vital support for the building of spiritual civilization.
(3) The socio-cultural value of the elderly is a precious asset for the building of spiritual civilization
Chinese-path modernization is a process of the well-rounded and free development of the person and the continuous elevation of human civilization. Material abundance and spiritual richness [6] are fundamental requirements of socialist modernization. All achievements of human material and spiritual civilization are reflected in knowledge and spiritual culture; if these are not inherited and transmitted, human civilization could be interrupted. Human knowledge, experience, and wisdom are accumulated through long-term social production and life practices. Older persons in the later stages of the life cycle represent the peak of "crystallized intelligence," such as life experience and social expertise. They possess the richest social and political experience and the deepest understanding of issues. Their broad tacit capital and potential value can not only be transformed into productive resources to continuously create socio-economic benefits, but also serve as important elements for building moral culture and rural civilization [7] in the New Era, playing a crucial role in the generational succession of culture.
First, the elderly are the inheritors and creators of empirical knowledge and skills. As subjects, people in their youth accept various types of knowledge transmitted by the previous generation, including ideological wisdom, daily life skills, and labor production skills. As age increases, life tempers them, and work experience grows, their theoretical knowledge, life experience, and production skills are continuously accumulated, and their cognition of society becomes more enriched. The inheritance of existing knowledge and experience, along with the creation and accumulation of new knowledge, enriches the treasury of human knowledge and helps future generations absorb and comprehend the essence of human civilization. This is of great significance for promoting sustainable socio-economic development and the prosperity and progress of human culture and knowledge. In any society, knowledge transmission cannot occur without the role of the elderly. During the era of the small-peasant economy, the transmission of knowledge, especially empirical knowledge, followed the "pre-figurative culture" model [8], where the elderly were the owners and creators of knowledge, passing it on to younger generations through oral instruction and personal demonstration. In industrial society, the "master-apprentice" relationship was also a vital form of transmitting empirical and normative knowledge. Although in the digital age, pre-figurative culture is overshadowed by co-figurative and post-figurative culture models, family education remains a key link in knowledge dissemination, and elders still play the role of mentors (Yang Juhua, 2022).
Second, the elderly are disseminators and guides for the building of spiritual civilization. The 20th National Congress of the CPC proposed that material abundance and spiritual richness are fundamental requirements of socialist modernization. It is necessary to continuously cultivate the material basis of modernization and consolidate the material conditions for the people's happy lives, while simultaneously developing advanced socialist culture, strengthening education in ideals and convictions, inheriting Chinese civilization, and promoting both the total enrichment of material goods and the well-rounded development of the person. The building of spiritual civilization cannot be separated from the cultivation, intergenerational transmission, and innovation of excellent traditional family culture. Chinese society is like concentric circles [9], extending from the self to others, from the family to the village/community, and from the community to the state. Thus, the effectiveness of family spiritual civilization building inevitably radiates beyond the home, becoming the foundation for a solid and positive social atmosphere. In their youth, the elderly received the teachings of their elders; through the journey of life, they undergo the tempering of time and the baptism of experience, gaining more comprehensive and profound experiences, realizations, and insights into all aspects of society and life, which allows them to potentially form more refined characters and sounder moral cultivation. They disseminate good family education, promote good family traditions, co-build good families, and cultivate good communities. They are guides for their children, caregivers for their grandchildren, companions for their elders, and mutual-aiders for their neighbors. They are practitioners of "fostering virtue through education" [10], builders of harmonious families, and cultivators of good Party style, government style, and social atmosphere. Through personal example, writing, and training apprentices, they subtly pass on the excellent culture of the Chinese nation to future generations, playing a unique role in the building of spiritual civilization.
Third, the elderly are practitioners and promoters of the building of ecological civilization. Regarding the natural ecology, the elderly actively participate in environmental protection and sustainable development activities. They are the primary practitioners and managers of ecological civilization at the family level, practicing the improvement of living environments and green environmental protection. To a certain extent, they determine the family's lifestyle, diet, and consumption habits, serving as an important force in environmental protection. From the perspective of the social ecology, the elderly have always been the main force in grassroots social governance and the building of rural civilization. Relying on deep social capital and higher social prestige, they play an active role in social governance. Compared to younger people, the elderly possess a stronger sense of social responsibility and excellent qualities such as modesty, forbearance, self-sacrifice, selfless dedication, and perseverance. They are more likely to exhibit tolerance and concession in handling interpersonal relationships and demonstrate altruism and self-sacrifice in intergenerational interactions, providing whatever help and support they can to younger generations and passing on the virtues of intergenerational and neighborly mutual aid. Through moral demonstration and fostering virtue, the elderly interpret Socialist Core Values, uphold excellent traditional Chinese culture, and purify the new civilizational trends of the New Era, constituting the core elements of grassroots social ecological civilization building. From a higher level, they can respond more calmly and turn crises into opportunities when facing severe challenges, creating a "sage effect" on public opinion. Clearly, the elderly can play a unique role in creating civilized and clean villages, beautifying living environments, and promoting new civilizational trends throughout society. Conversely, the building of spiritual civilization and ecological environments, as well as the harmonious coexistence between humanity and nature, will bring a higher quality of life to the elderly, promoting their well-rounded and free development.
II. Population Aging and the Challenges to Chinese-path Modernization
Advancing Chinese-path modernization in a context of massive population scale and a continuously deepening age structure is an task of unprecedented difficulty and complexity. While the previous section discussed the modernization opportunities inherent in population aging, this section discusses the challenges that population aging may pose to Chinese-path modernization.
(1) Potential challenges of population aging to the modernization of the population
Population aging intersects and overlaps with other demographic factors, economic development, and numerous social issues. This will inevitably exert a full-process and global-level profound influence on elevating the "modernity" of the elderly themselves and achieving the well-rounded development of the person.
First, capital endowments remain relatively low, which is unfavorable for the attainment of modernity for the individual. The modernization of the person is a core dimension of modernization itself. The American sociologist Alex Inkeles proposed 12 characteristics of individual modernity: openness to new experiences, readiness for social change, inclusivity and tolerance, punctuality and valuing time, emphasis on efficiency and efficacy, orientation toward planning, respect for knowledge, rationality, technical expertise, respecting but not being bound by tradition, self-respect and respect for others, and a focus on process. As mentioned previously, while the human capital endowments of the elderly have seen vast improvements, data from the Seventh National Population Census [11] show that their illiteracy rate remains as high as 10.70%, far exceeding the national average (3.26%). China's illiteracy is primarily concentrated among the elderly, particularly the oldest-old. Only 3.98% of the elderly have received higher education, while 46.48% have only a primary school education. Lower levels of education mean they are more likely to retain traditional lifestyles and modes of production; they lack digital literacy and possess a limited capacity for modernity and the internalizing of modern civilization, thereby restricting their space for social participation and self-development, as well as their ability to transform existing capital and traditional skills into new capital and skills. Consequently, to date, the participation capacity of the elderly remains limited and their level of participation low. Low capital endowments also drag down the capital endowment of the total population, which is detrimental to supporting Chinese-path modernization with high-quality population development.
Second, the "getting old before getting prepared" (未备先老) phenomenon hinders the realization of modernization characterized by common prosperity. China entered an aging society before its modernization reached a high stage of development. The speeds of aging, advanced aging (高龄化), and disability are rapid, with imbalances in the proportions of the elderly across gender, urban-rural divides, and regions. Characteristics such as "getting old before getting rich" (未富先老), an incomplete social elderly care system, and an imperfect security system are highly prominent, potentially obstructing modernization focused on common prosperity for all people. Data from the Seventh National Population Census show that in 2020, the primary source of economic livelihood for the elderly was pensions, accounting for 34.67%. However, for women, the proportions citing pensions and labor income as their main sources of livelihood were approximately 4 and 13 percentage points lower than for men, respectively; the economic independence of elderly women is far lower than that of men. Similarly, only 10.43% of rural elderly have a pension, far below the 69.83% of urban elderly and 31.75% of those in townships. Consequently, they more frequently engage in income-earning labor or rely on support from other family members. Their level of social security is relatively low, and the poverty incidence rate is as high as 19.5%, far exceeding the national rate of 14.5% (He Xin, 2020). These disparities reflect not only "having" versus "not having," but also the "high" versus "low" levels of benefits: data from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security show that in 2021, the average monthly basic pension for urban employees was 3,671 yuan, while data from the National Health Commission indicate that the average monthly pension for the national urban and rural resident basic old-age insurance was only 179 yuan. The pension levels for over 60% of the elderly remain extremely low.
Third, a low quality of life impedes well-rounded human development. Leading a secure economic life, receiving dignified care for disabilities, and enjoying the basic human need for spiritual solace are the fundamental demands of the elderly in the New Era. Longed life expectancy means people will spend a longer duration as seniors, and the risk of disability and dementia continues to rise. However, on one hand, the reduction in family human resources has weakened the family's support function. Coupled with population mobility and changes in residential patterns, "empty nests" are becoming the primary form of elderly households in China, reducing the convenience for children to care for parents personally. The traditional elderly care model, entirely provided by family members, is becoming unsustainable. On the other hand, the demand for family care is rising. The 2016 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey showed that 6.81% of elderly people were still caring for even older parents—and may simultaneously be caring for parents on both sides of the family; the average age of these caregivers exceeded 66, with an average weekly care duration of over 20 hours, representing a heavy burden for the elderly. Upon entering old age, degenerative diseases and disabilities follow one after another, leading to a significant increase in medical and care expenses. Meanwhile, deficiencies in the sufficiency, stability, and professionalism of nursing personnel mean that in the delivery of care services, both quantity and quality are difficult to guarantee, creating a massive gap between supply and demand. Furthermore, the elderly migrant population faces difficulties such as high migration costs and social integration challenges. In 2020, the scale of China’s elderly migrant population reached 33.27 million. They simultaneously face the transition between two life states: migration and aging. They may have to care for grandchildren, be forced to separate from a spouse, or face inconveniences in daily habits and seeking medical care, as well as the difficulty of meeting their needs for spiritual solace. All of this may mean that some elderly people are unable to lead high-quality, dignified lives, and well-rounded human development is thus obstructed.
(2) Challenges of Population Aging to Economic Modernization
The relationship between age structure and economic development is characterized by uncertainty and complexity: regions like Africa and Latin America with younger population structures have not achieved synchronized rapid growth of population and economy, whereas China once formed a "population dividend." Developed countries have very severe levels of aging, yet there is still a lack of direct evidence that this produces negative effects on the economy (Bloom and Canning, 2004). However, scholars currently generally believe that population aging may exert unfavorable impacts on economic growth and common prosperity from both the supply and demand levels, and the interaction between supply and demand forms a negative multiplier effect, causing the economy to fall into a "shrinking spiral" after the economic scale contracts (Wang Guixin, 2022).
First, the coexistence of a decrease in the total labor force and the aging of its structure may constrain economic vitality and innovation. Labor is the most important factor of production. Population aging reduces the proportion of the working-age population in the total population. As shown in Figure 1, the proportion of China's working-age population (ages 15–64) began to decline in 2010, falling from 74.53% to 68.33% in 2021. After significant growth between 2005 and 2010, the absolute number of the working-age population flattened out and has continued to decrease; starting from 2013, the total fell from 1.01041 billion to 965.26 million in 2021—an average annual decrease of 5.644 million—and will continue to decrease hereafter.
As a derivative phenomenon of population aging, the working-age population is itself aging. From Figure 2, it can be seen that in 2000, China’s working-age population pyramid was approximately olive-shaped, dominated by young and middle-aged laborers. This structure ensured the production efficiency of the labor force, possessing both the health and educational capital of the youth and the work experience of older workers. Compared to 20 years ago, the young labor population in 2020 has significantly decreased, while the proportion of older laborers has significantly risen, a trend that continues to intensify. As age increases, workers' physical strength and reaction capacity may decrease accordingly, making it difficult to meet the high-intensity requirements of labor-intensive industries. This reduces labor productivity, intensifies structural shortages in labor supply, pushes up labor prices, constrains the development of labor-intensive manufacturing, and delays the transformation of industrial structures (Shi Meicheng and Chen Weimin, 2017). At present and in the future, the foundation for an infinite supply of labor is disappearing; the competitive advantage of "low labor costs" is unsustainable, and the supply-demand pattern of the labor market has reversed. The "population dividend" window that maintained China’s high economic growth for decades is about to close, and the mode of economic growth can no longer rely on the traditional quantity-driven model. Simultaneously, the aging of the working-age population will also inhibit technological innovation through various channels, such as the social security contribution rates of enterprises.
Second, the elderly dependency ratio continues to climb, which may impact the social security system. Population aging has changed the structure of the population dependency ratio, with the elderly dependency ratio becoming the primary factor driving up the total dependency ratio. From Figure 3, it can be seen that since the Reform and Opening-up, the change in China's total dependency ratio has followed a U-shaped pattern, falling below 50 in 1995 and reaching its lowest point in 2011. Since then, it has continued to rise, from 22.1 to 46.3 in 2021, approximately the level of 1999. However, even when the level of the total dependency ratio is the same in different periods, its internal composition is markedly different: in the past, the total dependency ratio mainly depended on the child dependency ratio; now and in the future, it is primarily influenced by the elderly dependency ratio. World Population Prospects 2022 predicts that China’s total dependency ratio will rise to 50.5 in 2035 and 71.1 in 2050; around 2027, the elderly dependency ratio will exceed the child dependency ratio, and China will evolve from a "child-rearing" (抚幼) society into an "elder-supporting" (赡老) society (Chen Wei, 2022).
The rapid growth in the scale of the elderly population will inevitably generate more demands for public services, public welfare, and public expenditures related to the elderly, which may crowd out investment shares for education and scientific research, proving detrimental to technological innovation (Wang Wei and Jiang Zhenmao, 2016). Aging will also impact the sustainable development of the old-age insurance fund: as the "baby boom" generation born between 1962 and 1973 successively retires, pension expenditures will continue to grow, reaching 7.5% in 2022–2025, and rising to 15.6% and 19.5% during the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plan periods respectively—far faster than the growth rate of basic income (Du Yang and Cheng Jie, 2022). Similarly, most elderly people cannot avoid the risks of chronic diseases and disability. The increase in the scale of the elderly and the extension of life spans may further drive up social medical expenses, especially "peak medical costs" (乐章、秦习岗, 2021). Thus, the payment pressure on basic medical insurance is immense. Expenses for elderly care, medical treatment, and nursing are projected to rise from 7.33% of GDP in 2015 to 26.24% in 2050. A basic function of the social security system is to provide every member of society with stable expectations; the high-quality development of social security can lay the foundation for people to live and work in peace, social stability and harmony, sustained economic development, and the long-term peace and stability of the nation. However, a heavy burden of basic old-age and medical insurance may lower the public's stable expectations for production and life, weakening their ability and confidence to participate in economic and social construction.
Third, the consumption-savings effect remains unclear, and its stimulus to the economy is likewise uncertain. The economic effects of population aging are also manifested in consumption and savings. As mentioned earlier, the elderly in the New Era possess huge consumption potential, but aging may inhibit the natural tendency to consume, making it difficult for this potential to be effectively released. Influenced by low income, limited sources of income, and traditional thinking, the consumption concepts of the elderly remain relatively conservative, their willingness to consume is generally low, and their consumption capacity is restricted. Even the elderly born after 1950 have not demonstrated a "modernity advantage" in consumption; their consumption levels are even lower than those born in the 1940s and earlier (Wu Min and Xiong Ying, 2021). The consumption promotion effect brought by increased per-capita income levels is insufficient to offset the consumption inhibition effect caused by the aging of the population structure; total consumption levels may decrease as the degree of aging deepens (Wang Yupeng, 2011). This will be unfavorable for the transformation and upgrading of consumer demand, creating greater resistance to the continuous release of domestic demand potential. Meanwhile, elderly consumption—mainly centered on medical and healthcare—primarily generates a spillover effect on the domestic demand consumption of the "internal circulation" (国内大循环) [12], while its impact on the import consumption of the "international circulation" is very limited (Jiang Haixu, 2021), hindering the cultivation of a complete consumption demand system. At the same time, the relationship between consumption, income, and savings is close. The overall income of China’s elderly remains low, and coupled with the gradually increasing deficit risks in the old-age and medical insurance systems, this will directly push up the precautionary savings motivation among the middle-aged and elderly. Theoretically, the impact of aging on savings is mainly manifested through the longevity effect and the structural effect—the former increases the overall savings rate, while the latter decreases it. Empirical research has not reached a consensus on the relationship: some believe China's savings rate is in a downward phase, which is detrimental to stable economic growth; others find that in the early stages of aging, the savings rate remained at a high level, becoming the "Chinese high savings puzzle" (Liu Kaihao and Liu Yulin, 2015); still others find the impact of aging on the savings rate is first negative and then positive—in the short term, as the elderly dependency burden increases, the savings rate falls, but as the aging process accelerates, life expectancy extends, and the bequest motive grows, the impact of precautionary savings expands, causing the savings rate to shift from negative to positive (Meng Lingguo and Ma Jingyan, 2020). These characteristics mean that although the elderly have powerful consumption potential, its economic stimulus effect is clearly complex and uncertain.
(3) Potential Challenges of Population Aging to Cultural Modernization
Population aging is also a key factor affecting social governance and the construction of "spiritual civilization" (精神文明) [13] and "ecological civilization" (生态文明) [14].
First, it increases the complexity of primary-level community governance. The report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC emphasized the need to establish a social governance pattern of "co-construction, co-governance, and shared benefits," and to continuously promote the modernization of social governance models and capabilities. Communities are the primary living space for the elderly; compared to younger cohorts, they spend more time in their communities, forming an activity sphere centered around them. The community also serves as the fundamental link connecting family care with social care and the provision of government public services. Against the backdrop of rapidly accelerating population aging and the growing number of elderly individuals, communities face immense governance pressures. The demand for diverse and professional social elderly care services has been activated. Communities find it difficult to meet the new demands of the elderly by relying solely on their own resource supply, causing contradictions between supply and demand for elderly care services to become prominent. This increases the difficulty of allocating human, financial, and material resources and providing public services at the community level. Simultaneously, the complexity of community governance and the pressure of risk prevention are constantly increasing—the elderly experience a gradual decline in physical functions and possess weaker self-protection abilities, thus requiring higher levels of prevention and control against risks such as community crime. They are often the targets of fraudulent "elderly products" and services, victims of violent crime, and those most vulnerable to safety risks. If these issues are not handled well, they may exacerbate primary-level contradictions and produce negative impacts on achieving common prosperity for all, the well-rounded development of individuals, and the building of spiritual civilization [15].
Second, it increases the complexity of building spiritual civilization. Family transformation has weakened the care resources within the home, pushing services such as care, assistance, support, and recreation for the elderly from the family into society. Beyond basic needs for daily life, health management, and care services, the elderly also have higher-level needs for spiritual consolation and respect. In the process of population aging, the number of widowed elderly is gradually increasing, and intergenerational separate living is common; thus, the spiritual consolation of the elderly has become a social issue that cannot be ignored. Some elderly people find it difficult to adapt to life in old age, with feelings of loneliness and isolation becoming the norm. Meanwhile, the authority of the elderly in modern society is gradually declining and disintegrating, and the phenomenon of children failing to fulfill their maintenance obligations occurs from time to time. The social reality of "generosity toward the young and neglect of the old" [16] implies the loss of traditional filial culture. While the elderly pass on the fine traditional Chinese culture and contribute to the building of spiritual civilization, they themselves face the predicament of being neglected and forgotten due to the reduction in productive value caused by declining physiological functions. Their individual living standards fall, and their family and social status decrease; their diverse capacities, characteristics, and needs are obscured and averaged out by the single label of "old age." These phenomena, inherent to aging, may affect the harmony and stability of families and communities, hindering the realization of the socio-cultural value of the elderly and the building of spiritual civilization.
Third, it increases the challenges of achieving harmony between humanity and nature. Whether humanity and nature can coexist in harmony is closely related to factors such as human modes of production and lifestyle, as well as population size and structure. As a major characteristic of population structure, aging profoundly shapes human production and lifestyles, as well as the relationship between population and environmental resources. Although China has entered a stage of negative population growth, the basic national reality of a massive population will not change throughout the entire new journey of Chinese-path modernization; the tension between population and the carrying capacity of resources and the environment remains. As they age, the elderly may require more resources such as medical and healthcare, which could increase the pressure to treat solid waste, wastewater, and other pollutants, thereby leading to a decline in environmental quality and damage to ecosystems. Simultaneously, population aging may trigger greater urban planning and transportation issues: to adapt to the mobility needs and physical limitations of the elderly, it may be necessary to re-plan and re-design urban roads and transportation systems. This requires a greater investment in public facilities and transport vehicles, which will also increase energy and resource consumption. Of course, the specific impact of this resource consumption on modernizing development requires more time for research and assessment.
III. Paths to Promoting Chinese-Path Modernization by Activating the Resources of the Elderly Population
Population aging is an unprecedented upheaval in the age structure of the population, a universal demographic phenomenon of the 21st century, and will accompany the entire process of Chinese-path modernization. Promoting Chinese-path modernization is a great and arduous undertaking that requires mobilizing the immense strength of all people, including the elderly population. This ensures that the improvement of the well-being of the elderly resonates and aligns with modernization efforts—consolidating hearts and minds for the realization of Chinese-path modernization—while also making modernization a broad stage where elderly people with the requisite needs can continue to display their talents and lead brilliant lives. To this end, we must take a high-level perspective, gain profound insight into the theoretical relationship and internal logic between population aging and Chinese-path modernization, and provide academic support and directional guidance for individual, family, and social practices in actively responding to population aging. We must persist in emphasizing both "human hands" and "human brains," and both "quantity" and "quality," allowing various demographic elements to successively burst forth with vitality in the context of aging, creating a road to Chinese-path modernization that conforms to national conditions.
(1) Scientifically Assessing the Theoretical Relationship Between Population Aging and Chinese-Path Modernization
The next decade or so will be the most rapid period of development for population aging. What kind of impact will aging ultimately have on modernization? This is the primary question that must be clarified to promote the modernization of the elderly themselves and to achieve Chinese-path modernization.
First, we must strengthen theoretical research on the relationship between population aging and modernization. China’s current and future population development involves problems faced by both developed and developing countries, making the relationship between population aging and modernization more complex. In a situation where the elderly population exceeds 280 million and its absolute number and relative proportion will continue to rise, the modernization process has neither precedent to follow nor a ready-made path to take. Therefore, we must accurately identify the connotation, extension, and boundaries of modernization for a massive elderly population, creatively explain the theoretical links between demographic elements related to the elderly and modernization, and explore the paths and mechanisms connecting the two. We should form and continuously improve a theoretical analytical framework for the relationship between demographic elements and economic, socio-cultural, and demographic modernization, and construct a rigorous, scientific, grounded, and operable system of modernization measurement indicators to serve as a theoretical guide and practical basis for the construction of Chinese-path modernization in the era of population aging.
Second, we must strengthen empirical research on the relationship between population aging and modernization. We should explore how to tap into the new dividend effects inherent in the massive scale and improved quality of the elderly population within the social context of a rapidly aging age structure. We must actively respond to the potential challenges that aging poses to modernization, turning crises into opportunities and transforming modernization challenges into modernization opportunities. In the next 20 to 30 years, the "young-old" [17] will maintain a massive scale and continue to constitute the "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" against various fluctuations and shocks on the new journey of Chinese-path modernization. Academic research must both maintain a high-level perspective and broad vision—overseeing the crux of the aging challenge and the positioning of opportunities—and start from the small and specific, grasping the comparative advantages of different elderly groups. We should objectively assess, categorically identify, and fully tap into the unique value of various elderly groups in the process of economic and cultural modernization, continuously accumulating demographic experience for the construction of Chinese-path modernization.
Third, we must strengthen research on the connecting paths between population aging and modernization. Globally, the starting points, processes, rates, results, and implementation models of modernization in different countries each have unique characteristics, but a common feature is being "rich before old." The rapid development of China's aging population proceeds in tandem with Chinese-path modernization, which dictates that Chinese-path modernization must "follow its own road" and use the country's own "key" to open the "door of modernization." We should strengthen research on measures to alleviate "bottom-up aging" [18] and explore the positive effects of improving the birth support system on reducing child-rearing costs, boosting the reproductive will of young people, and maintaining appropriate fertility levels and population size. We should also strengthen research on tapping the positive role of "top-down aging" [19] to provide academic support for accelerating the formation of a new modernization development pattern that continues to leverage the population quantity dividend, leverages the longevity dividend, stimulates the human capital dividend, and activates the digital technology dividend.
(2) Striving to Build an "Age-Friendly, Shared-by-All" Society
The essence of modernization is the modernization of people—achieving the free and well-rounded development of the individual. To this end, we must accurately identify the needs of different elderly populations, balancing care and production, material and spiritual needs, and universal benefits and individual differences. We must create a real world that more greatly respects the rights and individual dignity of the elderly, using the resources of the elderly to aid modernization, and using the fruits of modernization to improve the rights of the elderly.
First, we must firmly establish a positive and healthy outlook on aging. Based on the three cornerstones of "development, harmony, and participation" and following the five principles of "independence, participation, self-fulfillment, care, and dignity," we should replace "elder-friendly" with "age-friendly." We should replace a singular focus on "services for the aged" [20] with an equal emphasis on "services using the aged," "services for the aged," and "care for the aged," improving support policies for the elderly and enhancing their physical health to ensure their internal capacities can be realized. We should give full play to the leading role of mainstream media in positive publicity, vigorously promoting the concepts of "active aging" and "healthy aging" throughout society. We should highlight the social value of the elderly, eliminate the negative mindset that "the elderly are a burden," and cultivate a social atmosphere of "the elderly being useful" and "the elderly being active." By publicizing role models such as labor models, entrepreneurial experts, and community "good Samaritans," we can establish types and examples of active aging and overturn social stereotypes of the elderly as "frail," "dependent," or "useless." We should strengthen the capacity building of the elderly themselves, integrating the concept of lifelong learning into national education on aging to enhance their enthusiasm for learning and activate their own agency. We should pay attention to the internal heterogeneity of the elderly population, implementing categorized policies and allowing each to flourish in their own way, using the human resources, intelligence, and abilities of the elderly to aid high-quality demographic development and using active and useful aging to promote the smooth progress of Chinese-path modernization.
Second, we must effectively develop the productive potential of the "young-old." Economic activity and social security are the fundamental paths for the elderly to achieve common prosperity and material civilization. We must view an aging society and the lives of the elderly in a positive light; establish and cultivate a positive outlook on aging; and strive to give play to the active role of the elderly so that they are fully "utilized" rather than merely "maintained." China’s statutory retirement age is early and the employment level of the elderly is low; data from the Seventh National Census shows that the employed population aged 60 and above only accounts for 8.8% of the total employed population (Zhang Chenggang et al., 2023), meaning there is significant room to increase labor participation levels. We should cultivate an age-inclusive social environment, implement the new concepts of active and useful aging, and increase awareness of the importance and necessity of social participation by the elderly. We should speed up the improvement of laws and regulations regarding the participation of the elderly in the labor market to effectively protect their labor rights. We should increase the flexibility of the retirement age, supplemented by flexible social security policies, to break down institutional and mechanistic barriers and help them find suitable positions, continuously eliminating systemic obstacles for elderly people who are willing to continue working or return to the labor market. We should expose age discrimination in job selection, employment, and entrepreneurship, and encourage and support middle-aged and elderly groups in safeguarding their legal labor rights. We should use "smart" (digital) means to optimize the channels for the economic and social participation of the elderly, continuously improving the support system that can both meet their employment needs and guarantee their well-being. We should optimize the allocation of elderly human resources and, while respecting their wishes, fully tap into their productive potential, creating a favorable humanistic environment for their social participation and building a unique Chinese path for actively responding to population aging through a "longevity dividend."
Third, we must continuously satisfy the pursuit of a better life for the elderly. We must provide comprehensive care and attach high importance to the well-being and dignity of all elderly people, especially the "old-old." We should continue to increase the coverage and benefit levels of the basic pension and medical insurance systems, accelerate the construction of a multi-pillar elderly security system, and enhance the sustainability and equity of the system. We should continue to improve the elderly care service system and health support system, gradually achieving full coverage of community-based home care services, and issue a national basic long-term care insurance system as soon as possible. We should actively promote the development of new elderly care models such as the integration of medical and nursing care and "smart" health care, so that they can truly live a dignified life. We should form an "olive-shaped" model for the smart elderly service system, expanding both ends (securing basic life needs and enhancing physical and mental safety) while enriching the middle layer. We should issue family-friendly policies that include family caregivers, providing them with various supports such as financial subsidies, respite services, nursing guidance, and psychological counseling. Based on the categorization of needs, we should implement precision policies, focusing on key groups to ensure the vulnerable receive better assistance. We should advocate for a healthy lifestyle, encouraging the elderly to actively participate in cultural and sports activities to maintain physical and mental health. We should increase the construction and renovation of age-friendly environments, create livable communities for the elderly, and carry out various cultural, community, and volunteer activities to enrich their spiritual and cultural lives and improve their quality of life.
(3) Activating the Vitality of the Elderly Population in the Construction of Spiritual Civilization
The construction of Chinese-path modernization must both "shape the body" and "cast the soul." The "soul" here is none other than fine traditional Chinese culture. Elders make an indispensable and irreplaceable contribution to the inheritance of fine culture and the construction of the modern civilization of the Chinese nation.
First, deeply rooting the ideological foundation of Chinese-path modernization in the fine culture of the family. Advancing the modernization of over 1.4 billion people is the shared responsibility of the entire society, including the elderly population. It requires both the creation of material wealth and the cultivation of spiritual civilization, using culture to transform people [21] and consolidate strength. Great importance must be placed on the construction of family culture, mobilizing the strength of the elderly, and guiding them to continue playing a role in the construction of spiritual civilization. They should be encouraged to consciously pass down good family education and promote fine family traditions [22] such as professional dedication, integrity, and selflessness. This will realize familial and intergenerational harmony, promote the cultivation of civility and cultural development, and ensure that more beautiful homes—where the body resides—become spiritual homes where the heart belongs, thereby extending the meaning and value of life. We must encourage the elderly to participate actively in voluntary services such as community mutual aid, the improvement of neighborhood relations, and the construction of ecological civilization, creating a cultural atmosphere of neighborly care, voluntary assistance, and social harmony. Furthermore, we should promote "Red family traditions" [23], using the personal experiences of the elderly or the stories of their elders to cultivate a sense of patriotism and devotion [24] in the youth. This facilitates both their material and spiritual abundance, demonstrating the vast historical depth and cultural foundation of the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Second, realizing the value of "proactive aging" [25] through the inheritance of fine culture. Fine traditional Chinese culture is inherited, innovated, and developed through concrete forms such as fine family traditions, folk festivals, traditional skills, folk arts, and regional customs. Intangible cultural heritage is the "living soul" of humanity and a precious memory of traditional culture. Many elderly people are themselves practitioners of intangible cultural heritage and play a critical role in its protection. Similarly, the elderly can play a unique role in projects to revitalize traditional festivals, enriching their cultural connotations and preserving their cultural memories. The elderly are also the "living history" of the family and the nation, serving as important witnesses to national development. The profound memories formed based on their personal experiences always play the most infectious and persuasive role in the intergenerational transmission of culture. These activities not only help embed fine traditional culture deeply into the lives of the people—especially the world of the youth—invigorating the spirits of the elderly and others alike, but also strengthen the cohesion of the masses, cultivate fine social mores, and preserve the vital lineage of China. Moreover, this is an important path for realizing "proactive aging" and enhancing the cultural value of the lives of the elderly.
Third, enhancing the physical and mental well-being and spiritual wealth of the elderly through cultural enrichment. Chinese-path modernization requires a "simultaneous grasp" of both "enriching the pocket" and "enriching the head." Currently, many elderly people who have exited the labor market lead relatively empty lives. We must identify the key points for the construction of a modern civilization for the Chinese nation in the New Era, activating the vitality of traditional culture and enriching the spiritual and cultural lives of the elderly. Closely following the reality of the elderly and focusing on their needs, we must integrate cultural resources and remain effect-oriented, balancing the public welfare nature and the commodity attributes of elderly cultural achievements. Through mechanisms such as government procurement of services and cash subsidies, we should promote inclusive cultural services for the elderly. We should also encourage private capital to participate in providing cultural products and services for the aged, satisfying the personalized cultural needs of high-end middle-aged and elderly groups through market mechanisms. Through various forms such as cultural tourism stations and industrial exhibitions, we must continuously provide high-quality cultural products and services, bringing more diversified cultural experiences to the elderly and attracting their deep participation. With the help of digital technology and online platforms, we should integrate cultural works and products for the elderly into smart terminals, accelerating the creation and production of high-quality culture. This will manifest the spirit of the new age, allowing fine culture to be continuously transmitted in both physical society and cyberspace, filling it with "upright energy" [26]. By enriching the daily lives of the elderly through the construction of spiritual civilization, we will spread the achievements of fine culture across the developmental path of Chinese-path modernization.
Conclusion
Under the dual forces of low fertility rates and extended life expectancy, population aging will continue to develop in depth and will accompany the entire process of Chinese-path modernization and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Scientifically, systematically, and deeply exploring the relationship between population aging and modernization has become a major contemporary issue of a processual, global, long-term, and strategic nature. Chinese-path modernization and the proactive response to population aging are complementary and mutually reinforcing. On the one hand, the new goals and characteristics of modernized development provide new opportunities, guarantees, and content for the proactive response to population aging, helping to further create a situation in which the elderly are respected and their legitimate rights and interests are protected. On the other hand, as an important dimension and goal for measuring Chinese-path modernization, the active role of the elderly in the modernization of the population, the socialization of the economy, and the construction of spiritual civilization can provide the human resources, precious human capital, and inexhaustible ideological vitality required for modernization. The improvement of the well-being of the elderly is inseparable from the impetus of modernization; Chinese-path modernization is the only way for the elderly to realize the modernization of the person. Similarly, the construction of modernization is inseparable from the contribution of the elderly; their human resources and high-quality development are the endogenous driving forces for promoting "parallel modernization" [27]. For a long time, the elderly have made indelible contributions to the construction of modernization; in the future, they will continue to play an irreplaceable role. We must vigorously advocate the concept of age equality, improve the comprehensive quality of the elderly, and seize the new opportunities brought by scientific innovation and digital technology. We must focus on the productive potential of the younger-old and the service demands of the oldest-old, balancing the effective mitigation of risks with the reasonable grasping of opportunities. We are committed to meeting the various demands of the elderly in need, ensuring they are provided for, receive medical care, and live with dignity. Simultaneously, we must more fully promote those elderly people with the will to be utilized and to be proactive, thereby transforming their "potential" into "strength" and "possibility" into "reality," using active aging to empower Chinese-path modernization.